Beck's Minor League Threecap: 8/22/2024

Off my Rocker, the top 100 update is coming soon

First one to like the post gets to proofread my updated top 100. Frankly I’m not sure if that’s a perk or a punishment. It’s coming along nicely but it’s taking longer than I had expected – they always do – but I hope the people who consume it understand it’s because I take a lot of pride in it. Let’s talk a little about yesterday’s standouts.

Me and My Crews Against You and Yours.

I can’t quit Dylan Crews (WSH) and I think it would be unwise for you to quit him, too. Everybody has been a little put off by his lack of complete and total domination as he’s ascended the minor league ranks, but I’m pretty firm in my belief that he’s going to have to show something truly concerning in his underlying data to break my faith in his absurd amateur pedigree. He’s now accrued 47 games in Triple-A, and in that sample he’s running a 105.7 mph 90th EV, an 88.5% in-zone contact rate, and a 112.6 mph max EV. Those figures look even better when you consider his last 35 games – think of this like trimming the first two weeks to account for adjusting to the level – in which he’s slashed .272/.363/.483 with 16 extra-base hits. Maybe he doesn’t profile as a potential MVP winner, but he’s a good ballplayer. He was 4-for-5 with a pair of swipes on Wednesday. He’ll land around #10 in my update. 

I had dismissed Arjun Nimmala (TOR) pretty early this year. He stumbled to a .167/.280/.306 line and 34.4% strikeout rate through his first two months of the year. He’d looked pretty lost in that time – it wasn’t entirely that the ball wasn’t bouncing his way, though it wasn’t – but that’s to be expected, at least to some degree, as he figures out how to manage himself in professional ball for the first time. He’s seemingly figured it out over the last few months, albeit with a fair bit of flailing along the way, and has pulled together a pretty spectacular summer. He’s slashing .271/.356/.610 since the calendar flipped to June and that period includes a promotion to Single-A. It’s a staggeringly impressive surface line considering he’s still striking out in 29.8% of plate appearances, but that number of punchouts is a real red flag at this juncture.

Off My Rocker.

I’m stunned. I didn’t see this coming from Kumar Rocker (TEX) whatsoever but he’s put together a seriously impressive string of starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. The Rangers have been easing him back into throwing in games, first in the Arizona Complex where he made a trio of appearances that lasted three innings or less, now in Double-A where he’s pushed his pitch count to 70. His 2024 line now sits at 26.2 innings, 37 strikeouts, four walks, and a 2.03 ERA, which is fantastic in its own right but is stunning in a few very important ways. First is that his stuff looks phenomenal; his fastball is sitting high 90’s with below-average shape but above-average results and zone rate, his sinker has mostly existed to get hitters off of his four-seam fastball, his cutter rounds out a trio of fastball variants and serves as another change of pace pitch with velocity, and his changeup is a bit firm. Those are all fine – the four-seam looks potentially plus, the rest I’m not enamored with – but the slider is brilliant. He’s intentionally altering its shape and velocity masterfully. His health track record isn’t stellar (to put it lightly), but I have the same feeling I had when I saw George Klassen pitch for the first time this year. Rocker will be in my top 100 update.

Leiter Days. 

Not too shabby. Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker were stellar on the Rangers farm, Jhancarlos Lara made his second start in Double-A, and Brody Hopkins saw his first bit of adversity at High-A (and as a member of the Rays organization).

Friday is a good day. It’s good on its own merits, but the slate we have this week doesn’t hurt. Here’s what I’d focus on:

• Chase Dollander (1.37 ERA) for the Hartford Yard Goats (COL) at 6:35 ET

• Cade Povich (3.48 ERA) for the Norfolk Tides (BAL) at 6:35 ET

• Jonah Tong (3.70 ERA) for the Brooklyn Cyclones (NYM) at 7:00 ET

• Thomas Harrington (3.63 ERA) for the Indianapolis Indians (PIT) at 7:05 ET

• Parker Messick (1.99 ERA) for the Akron RubberDucks (CLE) at 7:05 ET

• Yoniel Curet (5.40 ERA) for the Montgomery Biscuits (TBR) at 7:35 ET

• Jairo Iriarte (3.76 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 8:00 ET

• Quinn Mathews (2.62 ERA) for the Springfield Cardinals (STL) at 8:05 ET