Beck's Minor League Threecap: 8/18/2024

The beat goes on

I’ll be honest, folks, writing every single day for nearly three months to open the year really took a lot out of me. I turned down some personal and professional opportunities to make sure I got an article out the door every 24 hours. I would write late into the evening after a long day at work and putting in time to our new home, and it got hard. Lately I’ve been prioritizing the people around me – my friends, family, and coworkers – and it’s been nice. I’m going to try to pick up the pace again, but I’m getting married in three weeks and that’s the biggest thing going on in my life. Thanks for all the support this year; I fully intend to publish all the way through the AFL but probably with a lower daily publish rate than the 100% I was running from March to mid-June. Let’s jump in!

Calling Dibs on Tibbs.

I recently participated in the P1 ADP mocks put on by Chris Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh on Twitter) and selected James Tibbs III (SFG) with the 138th overall pick. These drafts serve to populate a prospect ADP that acts as a sort of public barometer on the state of the prospect population today. Tibbs will reside about where I took him in my next update, primarily because there are questions about his future defensive home and his ability to damage breaking stuff, but the remainder of his offensive profile is pretty interesting. It may not have been the SEC, but his .363/.488/.777 slash with 28 home runs and more walks than strikeouts more than justifies his first round draft cost. He managed to hit six home runs over 40 games on Cape Cod, too, which was a helpful sign that his pop will translate with wood. The under-the-hood metrics (83% z-con, 108 mph 90th EV, 20% chase) point toward potential above average hit and power. His first nine games have been very impressive and he’s currently rocking a .415/.429/.512 line with Single-A San Jose.

Sometimes it’s fun to go mudding. Our very own Nate Handy posted a Bo Davidson (SFG) highlight reel of sorts and it’s been burned into my brain in the days since. He has a stunning left-handed swing and has been fantastic in the small pro sample under his belt. His journey to the Giants began as an undrafted free agent out of Caldwell Community College and Technical Institute in Hudson, North Carolina (yes, he’s the only player from that school to ever play at any level of professional baseball), and has thus far been embattled by injury. He’s played 75 games and owns a .324/.434/.573 slash in that time, though he’s been old for the levels he’s competing at (relatively speaking). Since returning to Single-A after rehabbing injury in the ACL he’s put up an absurd 1.509 OPS with six home runs and four stolen bases over 22 games and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a late-season bump to High-A. I’m still working to get my hands on some underlying data, but for the time being I’m intrigued.

Pitchers are terrified of Nick Kurtz (OAK) right now. I don’t mean that in the “this guy’s line is insane and pitchers should be wary of throwing to him” sense, I mean it in the literal sense – he’s faced a zone rate under 40% since joining the A’s organization. To be clear, his line is insane, and even though it’s only a six game sample it’s largely reflective of the offensive prowess he displayed at Wake Forest. Five of his nine hits have been for extra bases (four home runs and a double) and he’s walked more than he’s struck out. I’m having a difficult time placing him in this FYPD class – there’s a good chance he’s a top three or four player when all is said and done – largely because I’m reminded that the bar he’ll need to clear as a first base-only bat is quite high. I like him a lot.

A Cunning Quinnster.

Your current minor league strikeout king went 7.0 scoreless innings and struck out 11 on Saturday. All aboard the Quinn Mathews (STL) train! There are plenty of blurbs I’ve written about him this year, so I won’t give a long and breathy breakdown tonight. He’s a top-10 pitching prospect in the sport.

Lately I’ve been fixated on the impact elevation can have on IVB. At the same time, I’ve been reading a lot about Jack Leiter (TEX)’s fastball and its underwhelming carry of late. As it happens, how close the ballpark is to sea-level is very positively correlated with carry – which makes sense! The PCL isn’t exactly friendly in this regard; the average IVB in the league is something like 14.5 inches, which is well below-average. Through his last four turns through the rotation, Leiter has thrown at home twice, in Sugar Land once, and in Albuquerque once. The average four-seam fastball IVB in those locations is 14.6, 15.1, and 12.1 (!!!) inches, respectively (these numbers courteous of @EliBenPorat on Twitter) . That’s a long way to say that individual game pitch metrics can vary a lot. He’s been pretty solid in that time, turning in a 3.63 ERA over 17.1 innings with 27 strikeouts, 11 of which came in a 3.2 inning outing on Saturday (yes, that’s every single out).

In the Hunt. 

I remain intrigued by Parker Messick. He’s pitching better than the lack of discussion around him on social media would suggest, which is probably because his heater isn’t very good. The table had a lot of guys go five innings or more and allow no more than three runs, which is pretty darn good. K.C. Hunt has been a riser of late and I’ll have more on him before the year is out.

I’ve got nothing for ya. Tomorrow is Monday and as you know there is no viewing guide because there are no full-season games. Back tomorrow with another article that will have a viewing guide!