Beck's Minor League Threecap: 8/1/2024

Out-Sproating the GOAT

Hey everybody! Good news, bad news situation here. There will not be a traditional Threecap tomorrow or Saturday, but it’s because it’s finally time for the Prospect Team of the Month for July and I’m spending the day Saturday on a boat. Back to our regularly scheduled content on Sunday. Off we go!

In Awe of Matt Shaw.

Roman Anthony (BOS) has been at Double-A all year and did the same thing he did in Salem to open the 2023 season – post great underlying data but fail to get results on the field. He scraped his way to a .638 OPS and a 33.3% K-rate but has been excellent outside of that 74 plate appearance sample. The Eastern League has been a little unfriendlier to offense this year than in years past and he’s still performing quite well in aggregate, though his hit tool looks a little shakier than it did at this time last year. The good news – if it qualifies – is that his left/right splits are improved, albeit on a very small sample (just 62 plate appearances against lefties in 2024). All said, I have him as a top-10 fantasy prospect and just took him at #7 in the ongoing P1 ADP mock drafts. He was 3-for-4 with two home runs and a walk on Wednesday.

At first I saw C.J. Kayfus (CLE) tearing up High-A and was like, “nice”. Now he’s laying waste to the Eastern League, which, as I mentioned before, is a tough league to hit in. He’s not dissimilar from Kyle Manzardo, though he’s likely a better athlete but lacks the same level of underlying pop – at least based on what I’ve heard reported. His hit tool may be plus and he’s maximizing his damage output by pulling a generous number of his fly balls. He was 4-for-5 with two doubles on Wednesday.

Hey, I wrote about Matt Shaw (CHC). He had another great night on Wednesday by going 4-for-5 with a walk and three runs scored. He finished July with a .373/.414/.647 line, four home runs, and four stolen bases.

Sears, Roebuck and Co.

I thought I stumbled across a gem. Andrew Sears (DET) was a 10th rounder last summer out of UConn and he’s shoving in the Florida State League through his first 17 appearances, or at least that’s what his 2.33 ERA would have you believe. The rest of the profile falls apart when you look a little deeper. He’s getting really lucky; batters are running a .259 BABIP despite batters running a 51.6% groundball rate against him, which is typically a good thing but highlights the extent of his luck as grounders run higher BABIPs. He’s stranding an unsustainable 78.9% of runners, which is high though not as egregious as his BABIP, and he’s the beneficiary of a 4.7% HR/FB rate. Those are the luck-based elements that undermine his surface performance, but there’s also his relative inability to throw strikes even while leaning on a 4-seam fastball and a sinker 68% of the time. Anyway, he struck out 11 batters over 4.2 innings on Wednesday, so he deserves a spot on the rundown.

Quinn Mathews (STL) shoved yesterday and that makes me happy. He’s one third of the three-headed breakout monster this year alongside Brandon Sproat and George Klassen, and I’m happy to have been in on two of them rather early (this is not a victory lap). As Meat Loaf would say, two out of three ain’t bad.

Elite Run Prevention. 

Hey, the table put up a 2.38 ERA yesterday. That’s better than Brandon Sproat’s ERA with Binghamton. We’ve out-Sproated the Sproat Goat.

Huge slate on Friday in terms of the number of notable arms going. Here’s where I’d focus:

• Jackson Baumeister (3.06 ERA) for the Bowling Green Hot Rods (TBR) at 5:00 ET

• Bubba Chandler (3.93 ERA) for the Altoona Curve (PIT) at 6:00 ET

• Josh Knoth (3.95 ERA) for the Carolina Mudcats (MIL) at 6:30 ET

• Travis Sykora (2.92 ERA) for the Fredericksburg Nationals (WSH) at 6:30 ET

• Matt Wilkinson (2.96 ERA) for the Lake County Captains (CLE) at 7:00 ET

• Jarlin Susana (3.60 ERA) for the Wilmington Blue Rocks (WSH) at 7:05 ET

• Brandon Sproat (2.67 ERA) for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (NYM) at 7:05 ET

• Mike Burrows (2.25 ERA) for the Indianapolis Indians (PIT) at 7:05

• Blade Tidwell (5.56 ERA) for the Syracuse Mets (NYM) at 7:05 ET

• Chase Hampton (0.00 ERA) for the Somerset Patriots (NYY) at 7:05 ET

• Drue Hackenberg (3.12 ERA) for the Mississippi Braves (ATL) at 7:35 ET

• Logan Henderson (3.38 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 7:35 ET

• Tink Hence (3.20 ERA) for the Springfield Cardinals (STL) at 8:00 ET

• Kumar Rocker (0.00 ERA) for the Frisco RoughRiders (TEX) at 8:05 ET

• Jack Leiter (3.72 ERA) for the Round Rock Express (TEX) at 8:15 ET