Beck's Minor League Threecap: 7/31/2024
New favorite fastball just dropped
Hey folks, a brief one day hiatus for me. We’re back, we’re better, there’s no more movement I need to account for in my writing, and hopefully I’ll keep the player/team mishaps to a minimum. Away we go!
The Beatings Will Continue Until Morales Improves.
The line Emil Morales (LAD) is posting in the DSL is comical. He was the top signee in the Dodgers’ 2024 class and has made them look pretty smart so far (as if they needed it) with a .336/.480/.664 line and 10 home runs in 34 games, good for a 191 wRC+. He profiles to be above average for both hit and power with an advanced plate approach and pitch recognition. He’s my favorite prospect in this year’s DSL crop, which, to be fair, has a lot to do with the relative availability of video on him compared to the remainder of that league. He was 4-for-5 with two home runs and a double on Tuesday.
It’s been kind of a quiet year for Matt Shaw (CHC). I thought he might make a push for the big league roster just a few months into the season but he’s still sitting in Double-A with a good-not-great line. We know well enough by now that surface lines lie, so let’s dig in a little. He’s running a below-average BABIP, which is dampening his triple-slash. Despite his OPS falling year-over-year, its composition is healthier – heavier on OBP, which is classically underweighted in the OPS calculation. Perhaps most importantly: he makes excellent swing decisions, hits the ball hard, and is making enough contact to tap into his raw power in games. I’ve got him as a top-20 fantasy prospect. He went 3-for-4 with a home run on Tuesday.
Dangerous Darlin.
Gary Gill Hill (TBR) has a 2.57 ERA. That number would be 1.76 if not for a blow-up start at the beginning of July, his only outing of the year that resulted in more than three earned runs. He’s generated a 29.6% CSW and 14.2% swinging strike rate, both of which are great but are also a little surprising given the quality of his stuff. His heater has two-seam, arm-side action and sits mid-90’s and each of his three secondary offerings have flashed plus (curveball, slider, changeup). He went 7.0 innings of one-run ball and struck out seven yesterday.
I strongly recommend following @KareemSSN on Twitter. He’s a treasure trove of Cardinals prospect information and was on Darlin Saladin (STL) long before I was. Saladin is a 21-year-old righty who has been in the system since 2021 and pitched his way to High-A this year. Before promotion he’d compiled a 1.95 ERA with 62 strikeouts over 60.0 innings, and he just had his best outing of the year with Peoria by going 7.0 innings, striking out nine, and allowing one earned run. The primary reason I wanted to highlight him today is because he has a genuinely freaky fastball. It doesn’t have premium velocity, usually sitting around 93 mph but occasionally touching 95, but it does have outlier IVB relative to his release height. Per Kareem (shoutout for some really good work), only three pitchers in MLB get better carry from a lower release point: Shota Imanaga (who has a famously demonic fastball), Sean Reid-Foley, and Shelby Miller. Saladin is also excellent at locating his heater at the top of the zone where it’ll play best. He has a 29.7% CSW and 14.3% swinging strike rate, ironically and unintentionally edging out Gary Gill Hill in both metrics.
Hooked on a Vrieling.
Hey, not bad. This is something of a synthetic, lab-made table because I didn’t get a viewing guide out there yesterday, but it certainly wasn’t cherry-picked. These are the names you’d expect to see. Chayce McDermott took his demotion personally, and honestly I’m not sure what the prognosis is for both him and Cade Povich for the balance of 2025. The acquisitions of Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers put a real damper on the likelihood either make an impact for the remainder of the year (i.e., I expect their contributions to be minimal barring injury).
My recommendation is to watch Brett Wichrowski and Caden Dana go head-to-head tomorrow evening. Here’s what else to watch for on Thursday:
Jackson Jobe (1.41 ERA) for the Erie SeaWolves (DET) at 12:05 ET
Thomas Harrington (2.24 ERA) for the Altoona Curve (PIT) at 6:00 ET
Julian Aguiar (3.48 ERA) for the Louisville Bats (CIN) at 6:35 ET
Yordanny Monegro (4.50 ERA) for the Greenville Drive (BOS) at 7:05 ET
Adam Maier (4.53 ERA) for the Augusta GreenJackets (ATL) at 7:05 ET
Jackson Ferris (3.69 ERA) for the Great Lakes Loons (LAD) at 7:35 ET
Brett Wichrowski (4.91 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 7:35 ET
Caden Dana (3.11 ERA) for the Rocket City Trash Pandas (LAA) at 7:35 ET
Jairo Iriarte (4.15 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 8:00 ET