Beck's Minor League Threecap: 7/28/2024
Enjoying the shade, rollercoasters, and going Syko mode
Hello and welcome back! I saw Zebby Matthews in person yesterday. I was impressed with his stuff and size but less so with his locations. He surrendered nine hits in four innings of work, the most he’s coughed up in any outing this year, but Omaha’s lineup is actually quite potent. It’s chock full of former major leaguers (Nelson Velazquez, CJ Alexander, Brian O’Keefe, Nick Pratto, Nate Eaton, Kevin Padlo were all present in the order last night) and a number of players with significant experience at Triple-A (John Rave and Cam Devanney each have more than 700 plate appearances at the level). Not for nothing but Omaha has a .640 winning percentage on the year.
Tai Goes to the Runner.
Tai Peete (SEA) gets a little overshadowed in Seattle, which isn’t entirely his fault. Their system is pretty strong, especially following the draft and even after the deal that sent Aidan Smith and Brody Hopkins to Tampa Bay in exchange for Randy Arozarena. Most draft analysts preferred one or both of Jonny Farmelo and Ben Williamson in the 2023 class already, and breakouts from Logan Evans and Michael Arroyo have largely overshadowed him this season. His muted surface production, primarily a lack of in-game power and a surprising penchant for strikeouts (30.3% in 369 Single-A plate appearances), has made him mostly an afterthought. He was billed as a power-over-hit bat at the time of the draft, and while evaluating prep hit and power tools can be challenging, he’s shown neither as a professional. There’s a lot of time for him to figure it out and I’m rooting for him. He was 2-for-6 with his third and fourth home runs of the year on Saturday.
I want off the Chase Davis (STL) wild ride. He was prized in the 2023 draft despite concerns that his dominance lasted just one year, then struggled out of the gate in 131 plate appearances with Palm Beach after the draft. He’s back there this year (Single-A) and has had a rollercoaster season that’s ultimately fallen short of expectations, though the high points have provided genuine intrigue. He has implemented drastic swing changes throughout the course of the season to be more upright and closed, and the results were initially very positive as he blew the doors off competition for the month of June. He’s since fallen back to earth and is a little confounding to evaluate. His underlying data looks fine; he’s running a 103.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, 82.1% zone contact rate, and 22.6% chase rate, none of which stands out but also suggests the surface might not be telling the whole truth. He was 3-for-4 with a double and a walk on Saturday.
Syko Mode.
Travis Sykora (WSH) has been handling the transition to pro ball with aplomb. Sure, he’s been a little on the lucky side in terms of BABIP and HR/FB, but you don’t need much luck when you’re striking out 37.3% of hitters through your first 52.1 innings. He came into the draft throwing the hardest fastball among all preps – it now routinely sits in the upper-90’s – but his secondaries significantly trailed the heater in quality. Both his slider and split-changeup have taken strides this year and look like viable offerings at the MLB level. He’s registered a 36.0% CSW and 20.4% swinging strike rate this year and has nothing left to prove in Fredericksburg. He struck out 10 batters over 4.0 innings of one-run ball (unearned) on Saturday.
I am digging what the Phillies are doing on the pitching development side. Yes, I’m distraught by the departures of George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri, but Mavis Graves (PHI) has been a bright spot in the system, too. He’s mostly held back by sub-par stuff – it’s hard to get excited by a guy who sits 91 mph with his heater, especially in the absence of outlier traits – but he has one of the best surface lines in minor league baseball. He has a 33.0% CSW and 17.6% swinging strike rate, mostly by way of a very good cutter, and has parlayed those metrics into a 2.89 ERA and 35.4% K-rate. I’m open to the idea that his fastball could take a jump in velocity, mostly because he’s just 20 years old and stands 6-foot-6. He went 6.0 scoreless innings and struck out seven on Saturday.
Lucky Number.
Thirteen pitching lines to feast your eyes on. Unfortunately only two scoreless performances courtesy of Travis Sykora and an abbreviated Tink Hence outing, but no real blow-ups either.
Mondays are an off day for the viewing guide. Back to regularly scheduled business on Tuesday!