Beck's Minor League Threecap: 7/27/2024
Bigger in Texas, baffling workloads, and a family-sized meal
It’s Zebby Matthews day! I’m leaving for the ballpark in 45 minutes as I write this intro, so it’s likely this edition comes out late at night. More to come on that front, I’m hopeful to grab video from behind home plate but it appears the game is nearly sold out!
Houston, We Have No Problems.
In a season marred by injury, Zach Dezenzo (HOU) has nevertheless ascended to Triple-A and has positioned himself as a potential contributor on opening day next year. Alex Bregman is a free agent at the end of the year and we’ve seen the Astros opt not to address big positional holes in free agency in recent years (e.g., Jeremy Peña replacing Carlos Correa following his departure prior to the 2022 season). Still there is the possibility Houston adds to the third base position group over the coming days – they’ve been prominently linked to Isaac Paredes – or during the offseason. Dezenzo has missed the majority of this year with a wrist injury that dates back to spring training and remains a large question mark himself. He had a breakout year in 2023, particularly in the friendly Asheville confines, but ended his season with a lackluster stint in the AFL and has struggled to find his footing over 22 games at Double-A as he works back from injury. It’ll be fun to have public Statcast data on him as he builds enough of a sample size in Sugar Land, though I’m sure the exit velocities will reiterate what we saw last year. He went 3-for-6 with a double on Friday, marking his third consecutive three-hit game and bringing him to a total of nine hits in 16 plate appearances in Triple-A..
If you like Carson Williams, may I interest you in one Brice Matthews (HOU)? Hat tip to Baseball Prospectus for calling out the similarities on their Midseason Fifty (your dollars are well spent should you opt to subscribe – I strongly recommend). Both are slick defenders at shortstop, though Williams is rangier and more sure-handed. Both are great at lofting the ball with power, though Williams is a better bet for 25 home runs. Both have had difficulties with same side spin, though Williams has closed some of the holes in his swing against better competition. Matthews is running a 34.0% strikeout rate through his first 23 games in Corpus Christi and will have to prove he’s more than an Asheville merchant (much in the same way Dezenzo will). He went 2-for-3 with a home run on Friday.
Highway to the Dana Zone.
Transparently I have no idea why Caden Dana (LAA) wasn’t in the table today. I’m similarly stumped by the way the Angels are using him. He’s ninth in MiLB in pitches thrown this year and is one of just two arms not in Triple-A in the top 10. He’s sixth in innings pitched and is just a few starts away from doubling his 2023 total. It’s not empty volume; he’s pitching really well, too. Knowing what we do about pitcher injuries and the limited number of bullets before an arm goes down, it doesn’t make sense to have him throwing as much as he is at Double-A, especially given the state of their rotation. I know the Angels likely want to hold on to another year of control – they are not one Caden Dana away from serious contention in 2024 – but there’s a certain amount of forward-thinking that seems markedly absent from their approach to handling his workload. In extremely related news, Dana threw 108 pitches en route to a two-run complete game on Friday.
You’re going to want to be on the Jackson Ferris (LAD) train before it leaves the station and I don’t think we’re far off. Over his last four starts (26.0 innings) he’s pitched to a 1.04 ERA, struck out 31 of 97 batters faced (32.0%), and allowed just 12 hits. As a reminder, he’s a 6-foot-4 lefty with a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s and and grades as plus, a curveball he throws with more conviction and feel than you’d expect from a 20-year-old, a slider, and a changeup. He’s cut his walk rate by nearly four percent year-over-year, and if he’s able to further reduce that number it’ll be easier to project him for the middle of the rotation. He went 7.0 innings, allowed one run, and struck out seven on Friday.
Barco at the Park.
Shoutout to Parker Messick for a line that reads the same forward and backward. Only one blowup in the table courtesy of Brett Wichrowski, whom I can’t really figure out at present.
Hunter Barco and Troy Melton are head-to-head tomorrow afternoon. Here’s what else to watch for on Sunday with my recommendations italicized as usual:
Dylan Lesko (6.46 ERA) for the Fort Wayne TinCaps (SD) at 1:05 ET
Brad Lord (4.21 ERA) for the Rochester Red Wings (WSH) at 1:05 ET
Hunter Barco (0.00 ERA) for the Altoona Curve (PIT) at 1:35 ET
Troy Melton (4.64 ERA) for the Erie SeaWolves (DET) at 1:35 ET
Jaden Hamm (2.51 ERA) for the West Michigan WhiteCaps (DET) at 2:00 ET
Logan Evans (2.17 ERA) for the Arkansas Travelers (SEA) at 3:05 ET
Santiago Suarez (4.04 ERA) for the Charleston RiverDogs (TBR) at 5:05 ET
Jacob Misiorowski (3.10 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 5:05 ET
Winston Santos (5.40 ERA) for the Frisco RoughRiders (TEX) at 7:05 ET
Spencer Giesting (5.01 ERA) for the Amarillo Sod Poodles (ARI) at 7:05 ET
Sean Sullivan (2.45 ERA) for the Spokane Indians (COL) at 8:05 ET