Beck's Minor League Threecap: 7/25/2024
The loudest tools in the minors, getting muddy with arms, and furnishing the dining room
Hey y’all! I wasn’t expecting to have a full Threecap today because I had a work event this evening but I was able to sneak out a little early, so it’s a very normal one. Let’s jump in!
Dam, Beavers.
Dylan Beavers (BAL) ended his 2023 campaign with a 34-game stint with Double-A Bowie that went, by all accounts, swimmingly. He was .022 points of slugging away from a picturesque .300/.400/.500 triple-slash. Now, nearly a year later, Beavers is one plate appearance from 600 at the level and I’m still not sure whether he’ll hit enough. He entered his pro tenure with questions about his meandering approach to hitting mechanics and its subsequent impact on his timing, concerns that have borne true thus far against better competition. He made adjustments last year that improved his ability to put bat on ball and led to a strong season, but he’s been rather inconsistent throughout 2024. He has some of the best raw tools in the minors as a plus runner with above-average juice from a 6-foot-4 frame, but he’ll have to be at least a below-average hitter against big league stuff to maximize them. He was 2-for-3 with two home runs and two walks on Wednesday.
The last time I wrote about Charles McAdoo (PIT) I said he should be on the radar for leagues that roster 500+ prospects. This time around it’s more like leagues that are 150 or more prospects deep. He continued his torrid pace through June and has consistently shown the requisite bat-to-ball, damage on contact, and plate skills to be a big leaguer, though questions about his future defensive home remain. There’s nothing I love more than a late round pick surprising people as a professional, and there’s a good argument for McAdoo as the best such story of the year. He was 3-for-4 with a double and a home run on Wednesday.
The history for players who strike out greater than 30% of the time at the complex level isn’t very kind, but Sebastian Walcott (TEX) might be the mold-breaker. He’s now a full four years younger than the average hitter in the Sally League and has a 117 wRC+ through 81 games. If we were ranking prospects based on pure upside (which, to be fair, is often given a lot of weight), there may not be anyone who hasn’t debuted ahead of him. He’s got a fair bit of whiff to shape up, especially against breaking stuff, but I’m actually rather encouraged by there being a lone glaring issue holding back the majority of his offensive profile. A singular development focus can be easier to address than multiple problems manifesting at once. And, as they say, you can’t teach tools. Walcott went 3-for-4 with a home run on Wednesday and is the proud owner of a 7-game hitting streak. He’s been held hitless just twice through 14 games in July.
As Long As I’ve Got My Suit and Ty.
Earlier this year the readership had indicated that they’d prefer I cover prospects that are more well-known, but there weren’t really many noteworthy performances from arms who meet that vague criterion yesterday. There were a pair of gems, though, starting with Jose Davila (STL). He’s a 6-foot-3 righty who signed with the Cardinals in 2019 but was forced to delay his professional debut until 2021 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and has yet to progress past Single-A. His numbers have been far from impressive his entire professional career, but his outing on Wednesday was truly remarkable as he tossed 6.0 shutout frames with 11 strikeouts. What’s more – he went 7.0 scoreless with 12 strikeouts in his previous outing. I don’t think this is some sudden jump in stuff and Davila does not project to make a fantasy impact, but that is a spectacular pair of starts and he deserves recognition for them. Bravo!
Ty Cummings (SEA) was a 7th rounder out of Campbell University last summer. The school has produced a number of interesting prospects over the last few years; Zach Neto, Cade Kuehler, and Thomas Harrington all attended Campbell and went in the top two rounds of the draft in the last three years. Cummings was seldom given the nod as a starter in college – just three times total, all three of which came in his final year as an amateur – but the Mariners have made it clear they intend to put him in the role until he proves he can’t handle it. For his part, he’s averaging 4.2 innings and 76 pitches per start, which is rather impressive length for a guy who is adjusting to the workload. He’s already eclipsed his career high in innings by a fair margin. He featured just two pitches in college, a sinker and a slider, and is largely finding success based on his ability to influence ground balls. His stuff is not particularly electric and his feel for the zone is erratic. His most likely outcome is out of the bullpen and probably not in high-leverage situations, leaving him with a very narrow window for fantasy viability. He struck out 10 over 4.0 one-run innings on Wednesday.
Rasmuscle.
The table is a little on the smaller side today but overall performed pretty well. Jhancarlos Lara threw zeroes, Drew Rasmussen made his second rehab start and is still actively stretching out, and Mick Abel had one of the better outings of his season.
Jackson Jobe and Thomas Harrington are head-to-head tomorrow night. Here’s what else to watch for on Friday with my recommendations italicized as usual:
Max Meyer (4.34 ERA) for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (MIA) at 5:35 ET
Adam Serwinowski (3.36 ERA) for the Daytona Beach Tortugas (CIN) at 6:30 ET
Anthony Solometo (0.00 ERA) for the Bradenton Marauders (PIT) at 6:30 ET
Jackson Jobe (1.38 ERA) for the Erie SeaWolves (DET) at 6:35 ET
Thomas Harrington (2.44 ERA) for the Altoona Curve (PIT) at 6:35 ET
Samuel Aldegheri (1.80 ERA) for the Reading Fightin Phils (PHI) at 6:35 ET
Nolan McLean (5.06 ERA) for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (NYM) at 6:35 ET
Yordanny Monegro (5.23 ERA) for the Greenville Drive (BOS) at 7:00 ET
Josh Knoth (3.75 ERA) for the Carolina Mudcats (MIL) at 7:05 ET
Parker Messick (2.70 ERA) for the Akron RubberDucks (CLE) at 7:05 ET
Jackson Ferris (3.89 ERA) for the Great Lakes Loon (LAD) at 7:05 ET
Julian Aguiar (3.12 ERA) for the Louisville Bats (CIN) at 7:05 ET
Brett Wichrowski (4.11 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 7:05 ET
DL Hall (2.95 ERA) rehabbing with the Nashville Sounds (MIL) at 7:35 ET