Beck's Minor League Threecap: 7/24/2024
Bringing the Tena, pumping heat, and keeping your elbows off the table
Give it up for day two! I’m feeling re-energized coming off of my break. I’m excited to round out the year with another 70 or so Threecap editions before rolling into the Arizona Fall League. I have plans on the calendar to see Zebby Matthews on Saturday. Life is good.
Hitterish? No, He’s Baty.
I really wanted to make a “Eduardo Beltre (MIN)? More like beltin’ tres home runs” joke, but alas he finished yesterday’s contest with just a pair of homers. He signed for just under $1.5M this offseason as the biggest name in Minnesota’s IFA class and has hit the ground running in the DSL to the tune of a .375/.516/.681 slash and more walks than strikeouts across 24 games. He was a participant in the DSL All Star game over the weekend in which he ultimately went hitless but didn’t miss a beat upon return to regular action and finished Tuesday’s double-header with two home runs, two doubles, and seven RBIs in a 5-for-7 day. Of course offensive numbers are inflated in the DSL, and I rarely dip my toes into that market save for the deepest of leagues, but Beltre is offering legitimate intrigue with potential for plus raw power in the future.
We’re checking back in on Brett Baty (NYM) in Triple-A. He’s been in Syracuse since he was optioned alongside Mark Vientos in favor of José Iglesias and Dedniel Núñez on May 31st, save for a lone appearance with the Mets during the London Series. In that time he’s done to Triple-A pitching what he’s always done – demolished. He’s carrying a .289/.378/.585 slash after collecting 12 total bases on Tuesday (two home runs and two doubles), and that’s actually somehow worse than his career numbers at the level. It’s hard to tell whether anything substantive is changing when the surface performance has always been good and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to translate it against big league pitching, particularly against fastballs. His underlying numbers this year are pretty similar to last year; he’s showing a little less juice but better angles and marginally improved zone contact and chase rates.
José Tena (CLE) has been pretty good all year while playing all over the dirt in Triple-A and has yet to get substantial run with the big league club. He was called up in late June and allowed just four plate appearances before making the trek back to Columbus where he’s been playing like he took it personally. He’s got 14 hits in 12 games since his demotion, half of which have been for extra bases (three doubles, a triple, and a home run), and a 1.006 OPS to show for it. From a pure Triple-A data perspective it’s probably easier to make a case for Baty putting it together at the big league level than it is for Tena as the latter has more difficulty parsing balls and strikes, whiffs more often in the zone, and has a ground ball rate north of 50%. He’s still worth a flier in leagues that roster 150 or more prospects, especially so if you could use infield depth or a spark down the stretch. He went 3-for-5 with a double and a triple on Tuesday.
Propane and Propane Accessories.
Sean Sullivan (COL) just keeps chugging along in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minors in Spokane. He went 5.0 scoreless innings and struck out 10 on Tuesday, lowering his ERA to a miniscule 2.30 and notching his third start of the year with at least 10 punchouts. Zebby Matthews gets a lot of praise for his ability to limit walks (1.9%), but Sullivan is right on his heels with just one more base on balls through a very similar inning count (2.3%). He’s thriving despite a pretty high flyball rate (43.7%) and benefitting from a low HR/FB (8.1% where league average typically hovers around 10%), but even his xFIP, which normalizes flyball luck, still sits at 2.79. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff and it’s tough to see how it’ll translate at the big league level, though he offers a fair bit of deception that is difficult to quantify and surely enough to stymie High-A competition.
You’re probably lower on Gary Gill Hill (TBR) than you ought to be. I expect he’ll make appearances on top 100 lists later this year – he’s certainly a candidate for mine. He was relatively off the radar entering the year; he’d posted an ERA greater than 5.00 and a whip over 1.60 at both the Florida Complex and Low-A last year as he struggled to fine-tune his mechanics. He’s come out this year with more repeatability and a few extra ticks on his heater, effectively making him one of the nastiest arms in the Carolina League. He’s pitched to a 2.69 ERA across 77.0 innings while nearly halving his walk rate, touching 98 mph with his fastball, and flashing plus with each of his curveball, slider, and changeup at just 19 years old. Yes, it’s the lowest full-season level in the minors and it’s often prudent to temper expectations, but the film really speaks for itself. He went 6.0 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts on Tuesday.
Table Etiquette.
The table makes its triumphant return tomorrow!
Max Meyer (4.34 ERA) for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (MIA) at 12:05 ET
Will Warren (6.42 ERA) for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (NYY) at 6:35 ET
Jonah Tong (3.14 ERA) for the Brooklyn Cyclones (NYM) at 7:00 ET
Jairo Iriarte (4.34 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 7:00 ET
Caden Dana (3.21 ERA) for the Rocket City Trash Pandas (LAA) at 7:35 ET
Thomas White (3.00 ERA) for the Beloit Sky Carp (MIA) at 7:35 ET
Quinn Mathews (4.96 ERA) for the Springfield Cardinals (STL) at 8:05 ET
Noah Cameron (3.45 ERA) for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (KCR) at 8:05 ET
Cristian Mena (4.92 ERA) for the Reno Aces (ARI) at 9:35 ET