Beck's Minor League Threecap: 7/14/2024

A bunch of guys just got told where they'll be living in 2-to-5 years

Welcome to a new week! I’m writing this very late into the evening and will be posting very early on Monday morning. We’re going to try to cover a few things briefly in today’s edition of the Threecap: a first round draft recap, a look into the future’s game, and the viewing guide. Off we go!

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There were a couple of clear winners in the first round of this year’s draft. You might say they got a discount (like the section title would suggest), but we aren’t aware of any signing bonus details yet so my thoughts here are entirely based on draft order.

Charlie Condon (3B/OF) to the Rockies at #3 overall: I had Charlie Condon as my #2 prospect in the class for both fantasy and real baseball and I expected him to go within the first two picks. Instead Cleveland opted for Travis Bazzana, my #1 prospect for both fantasy and real life, while Cincinnati took the top RHP in Chase Burns. It’s a phenomenal landing spot for future fantasy production and the thought of Condon hitting majestic homers and roping doubles into the vast expanse that is the Coors outfield was enough for me to make my first FYPD ranking change by vaulting him over Bazzana. Condon trails just Jac Caglianone in terms of raw juice and demonstrated enough bat-to-ball, pitch recognition, and swing decision proficiency to project 30+ home runs as a big leaguer.

JJ Wetherholt (SS) to the St. Louis Cardinals at #7 overall: JJ Wetherholt checked in as my presumptive #3 prospect for both fantasy and real baseball and left the draft in exactly the same spot. He has the potential to stick at the shortstop position, can impact the game with his legs, hits the ball hard (107.9 mph 90th EV with West Virginia this season), and has arguably the best hit tool in the class. St. Louis practically waltzed into this pick as Nick Kurtz went earlier than anticipated to the A’s, and I think you have to be thrilled with the selection if you’re a Cards fan.

Cam Smith (3B) to the Chicago Cubs at #14 overall: It was a pretty tough evening to be a Brewers fan. St. Louis and Chicago both found great value picking ahead of Milwaukee, and in the Cubs’ case they actually walked away with one of my wish list guys for the Brewers at #17. Smith really broke out this year at Florida State by improving significantly in three key areas: swing decisions, bat-to-ball, and underlying power. He improved his contact rate almost 13% to his 2023 figure and he carried a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 110 mph. He has a poor spray chart, but if he learns to lift the ball more often (48.9% groundball rate) and pull it when he gets it in the air (34.2% pulled fly ball and line drive rate), there will be a lot of executives wishing they had jumped on the opportunity to take him before #14.

Trey Yesavage (RHP) to the Blue Jays at #20 overall: I had Chase Burns and Hagen Smith as 1A and 1B in this class and I truly didn’t have Yesavage that far behind. I would have considered him over a number of players taken ahead of him and I think the Blue Jays should be really pleased that he was available for them at #20. I have a penchant for pitching prospects that feature a plus or better fastball, and Yesavage’s is a metric darling with 22 inches of induced vertical break from a 6-foot-8 release height at an average velocity of 94.1 mph. He has five other supporting pitches (cutter, changeup, splitter, curveball, and slider), all of which generated whiff rates greater than 50% and CSWs greater than 35%. He had significantly more polish than Burns and Smith in terms of command and control and while he doesn’t possess the pure electric stuff those two do, he’s exceptionally effective.

The Future is Now, Old Man!

Let’s get all the good prospects and really make a spectacle out of it! Maybe the fans will enjoy it more if we schedule it during a full slate of MLB games? What’s more, we can make it just seven innings!

…is how I am imagining the conversation went when MLB was discussing promotion for the Futures Game. I wasn’t able to watch live but I’ve gone back and watched. Here are the two big things I took away:

We’ve been telling you how bad minor league defenses can be. It was really on display in the Futures game as the teams combined for four total errors across just seven innings. It obviously doesn’t matter much in an exhibition, but I think it’s a good (and topical) reminder that minor league ERA has more noise than you might give it credit for. There are a great deal of defensive blunders that get scored as hits, certainly more often than hits are taken away as errors (I assume, but transparently I haven’t done the legwork to verify), that ultimately inflate pitcher ERA. Beyond that there’s the mental load of needing to secure a fourth out in an inning regardless of whether a borderline play is officially ruled an error or not. I find it far more effective to project minor league pitching based on stuff first and results second.

You probably ought to start paying attention to Drake Baldwin. He hit one of the two home runs for the NL (the other came off the bat of Cam Collier) and it was a slicing opposite field liner into the National League bullpen. He’s got 10 homers in 76 games this year and has done a ton of damage at Triple-A this year. His underlying power has been a little bit of a surprise to me – he’s currently running a 108.3 mph 90th percentile EV – and is running a zone contact rate north of 90% at Triple-A. He’s not chasing much either, and the longer the goes on the more conviction I have that this is real. 

This Minor Leaguer Might Be a Hall of Famer. 

This Clayton Kershaw guy is pretty good. Have the Dodgers done it again?

No viewing guides on Mondays. Cheers!