Beck's Minor League Threecap: 7/10/2024
Seeing what all the Kayfus is about, Chase-ing waterfalls, and making me Sykora
Hello my friends! It’s nice to have you back. We’re returning to some normalcy after yesterday’s leaderboard edition of the Threecap, which means you’ll get my meandering thoughts on a handful of players today. I am unsure whether that is preferred to an article full of lists, but it’s what’s happening. Enjoy!
What’s All The Kayfus About?
If you’re in search of a very strange defensive profile, for whatever reason that may be, look no further Adrian Del Castillo (ARI). It’s never good when your Baseball Reference page includes designated hitter as one of your positions, but DH isn’t usually paired with a primary position at catcher – it’s usually a first baseman. There’s a lot of pressure on Del Castillo’s bat should he want to be an everyday player at the big league level but he’s making diamonds in the PCL nonetheless. He was a second rounder out of Miami in 2022 who only slid because his platform year trailed his first two seasons as a Hurricane by a reasonable margin; he was a coveted hitter dating back to high school. Now in the PCL, he’s doing a lot of things right. His contact rates are reasonable, he’s hitting the ball reasonably hard (about two mph harder than the major league 90th percentile EV), and he’s making reasonable swing decisions. That combination of underlying data has him trailing just Ryan Ward (26-year-old Dodgers outfield prospect) in the PCL home run race. The key here is angles – Del Castillo has essentially a perfect launch angle at 15.7 degrees through 363 plate appearances. He could be a nice target if you need some offensive juice down the stretch this year but I’m less bullish about his long-term prognosis. He launched three home runs in a 3-for-4 night on Tuesday.
I suppose people can change. CJ Kayfus (CLE), whom I have written about a number of times this year, was initially billed as a soft-hitting corner infielder but has managed to hit 15 home runs between A+ and AA and slug over .600 across 67 games this year. The key for Kayfus is also angles – this time of the spray variety instead of launch. Spray angle represents the horizontal distribution of batted ball events where -45 degrees corresponds to the left field foul line and 45 degrees corresponds to the right. Kayfus has gone full Isaac Paredes and maximized his ability to do damage despite modest raw juice by mastering the production of positive spray angles. Given the production he’s managed thus far I think he’ll start showing up in a lot of top 100’s. He went 2-6 with home runs as his only hits on Tuesday.
Chase-ing Waterfalls.
Chasing Rockies pitching prospects is usually just as inadvisable as chasing waterfalls, but Chase Dollander (COL) is flipping this script this year. Just today I saw a large baseball creator put Dollander in his top 5 pitching prospects in baseball, and I kind of get it. He’s one of four pitchers who are in the top 10 in the minors in K% (4th), K-BB% (4th), and swinging strike rate (1st). The only demerit here is his future home park. I’m not sure what the hold up is in getting him to Double-A – he’s certainly got the stuff and execution to compete at the level – but the Rockies don’t seem rushed. Dollander went 3.0 innings on Tuesday and struck out nine while allowing one earned on two hits and two walks.
Travis Sykora (WSH) has been tremendous all year in his first season as a professional, but his last five outings have been scintillating. He’s thrown 25.0 innings in that time and struck out 34, walked six, and allowed just four earned runs (1.44 ERA, .360 OPS against). He’s just 20 years old and is pumping upper 90’s heat with a bendy slider and a changeup that looks much improved. I distinctly remember watching him sit with an average fastball velocity of 97 mph in the offseason against Jett Williams, and that kind of horsepower coming from a 6-foot-6 frame gives a lot of confidence in his ability to put guys away via strikeout even in his fifth or sixth inning of work. He’s been going deeper into starts lately after averaging just 3.1 innings per start through his first six games of the year. He went 5.0 hitless, scoreless innings and struck out seven on Thursday. I think we’ll start seeing him in top 100 lists soon, if not just outside it.
Owen No.
Let it be known that this is not in fact a monster of my creation. My brief absence on Monday meant there was no viewing guide prepared, so I went through and grabbed the fantasy-relevant lines instead. Not great, Bob! Travis Sykora was our lone spotless starter, Chase Dollander collected nine outs all by way of strikeout, and Owen White did whatever that is.
Here’s Thursday’s viewing guide with my recommendations italicized as usual:
Joey Cantillo (3.32 ERA) for the Columbus Clippers (CLE) at 5:35 ET
Trystan Vrieling (5.67 ERA) for the Somerset Patriots (NYY) at 6:05 ET
Jackson Jobe (2.08 ERA) for the Erie SeaWolves (DET) at 6:05 ET
Parker Messick (3.65 ERA) for the Akron RubberDucks (CLE) at 7:00 ET
Mick Abel (6.58 ERA) for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (PHI) at 7:05 ET
Gary Gill Hill (1.97 ERA) for the Charleston RiverDogs (TBR) at 7:05 ET
Ian Seymour (2.13 ERA) for the Montgomery Biscuits (TBR) at 7:35 ET
Noah Cameron (3.84 ERA) for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (KCR) at 8:05 ET