Beck's Minor League Threecap: 6/28/2024

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Happy Friday! I hope you’re able to coast through the weekend to the holiday as freely and easily as possible. I’ve got off from work for half of next week and the Saints are back in town, so I’m hopeful I can catch a game or two before Brooks Lee gets the call.

Morales Is High.

If Jesus Made was the flavor of last week, it’s been Emil Morales (LAD) so far this week. Some scouts had him as their #3 international prospect in this January’s class and our very own Chris Clegg had him as his #2. Your subscription is paying for itself if you acted then as Morales has been one of the strongest performers in the DSL all year and currently sits with a .312/.442/.557 slash through 17 games. It’s a small sample as all DSL breakouts are in June, but he looks the part, too. He’s listed at 6-foot-3, 191 pounds and generates easy power from the right side. He hit two home runs on Thursday and has gone 5-for-6 with four home runs, a double, three walks, and no strikeouts over the last two days.

It’s only a matter of time before we see Coby Mayo (BAL) now. I’m getting a little tired of writing about how good he is at Triple-A, but he just continues to punish International League pitching. Mike Elias keeps making opaque statements about how he’s trying to find room for him, and while I understand that it may not be comfortable to let a guy like Jorge Mateo or Ramon Urias go for free, neither of them have minor league options remaining and Mayo is a far better bat than either of them. Maybe that means we have to wait until the O’s can move one or both of those guys at the deadline, perhaps for a small return that is nevertheless better than nothing, but I don’t think it’ll be too much longer. Mayo went 3-for-4 with a home run and a double on Thursday and has homered in each of his last three games.

That’s Baseball, Susana.

Bubba Chandler (PIT) has been really streaky this year. He had a couple of great starts to open the year, then a few blowups in May, and has since been excellent over his last five. Since June 4th he’s thrown 25.1 innings, struck out 35 batters (34.7% K%), and allowed just seven earned runs (2.49 ERA), all while throwing 69% of all pitches for strikes. It wouldn’t be entirely inconceivable that he’s promoted to Triple-A sometime over the next month, perhaps after the All-Star Break, and it’ll be really fun to have some statcast data on him. He’s up to 99 mph on the heater with above-average IVB, has a slider with big sweeping action, and has developed a changeup that falls out of the zone and to the arm side. He went 6.2 innings on Thursday and struck out eight while allowing two earned runs.

As good as Bubba Chandler has been in his last five starts, Jarlin Susana (WSH) has been even better. He’s thrown 25.0 innings of 0.72 ERA ball over that span and managed to dismiss 44.1% of batters by way of strikeout. Susana had a rough 2023 as a 19-year-old in Single-A, largely because he walked 14.1% of batters, didn’t quite have the same strikeout stuff working for him, and had very little luck stranding runners on base (partially because he wasn’t striking as many batters out). His ERA isn’t much improved at the same level year-over-year (4.91 in 2024 vs. 5.14 in 2023), but his peripherals are far more encouraging. His xFIP is a full two runs better than the surface line would suggest, and his FIP is nearly two and half runs better. He went 5.0 innings and struck out nine on Thursday without walking a batter, the first start in which he didn’t issue a free pass since his first outing of the year.

Sandlin, Man. 

That is a fat table. All things considered it performed pretty well, too. Only Brett Wichrowski and Jhancarlos Lara walked more guys than they struck out, and Jaden Hamm was the only arm to allow more than four earned runs.

Here’s Saturday’s viewing guide with my recommendations italicized as usual:

• Parker Messick (0.00 ERA) for the Akron RubberDucks (CLE) at 6:00 ET

• Adam Maier (4.53 ERA) for the Augusta GreenJackets (ATL) at 6:05 ET

• Trystan Vrieling (5.08 ERA) for the Somerset Patriots (NYY) at 6:05 ET

• Dylan Lesko (6.12 ERA) for the Fort Wayne TinCaps (SDP) at 6:35 ET

• Jackson Ferris (4.24 ERA) for the Great Lakes Loons (LAD) at 7:00 ET

• George Klassen (2.00 ERA) for the Jersey Shore BlueClaws (PHI) at 7:05 ET

• Ty Madden (10.16 ERA) for the Toledo Mud Hens (DET) at 7:05 ET

• Jackson Jobe (3.60 ERA) for the West Michigan Whitecaps (DET) at 7:05 ET

• Jack Leiter (3.67 ERA) for the Round Rock Express (TEX) at 7:15 ET

• Noah Schultz (1.83 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 7:30 ET