Beck's Minor League Threecap: 6/24/2024

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

I’m feeling rejuvenated, y’all. This week will be a grind as I have client travel for work on Tuesday and Wednesday (catching a 7:00AM flight tomorrow, yuck) but I don’t give a care. Let’s dive in!

I Shaw It With My Own Eyes.

Matt Shaw (CHC) has been a man on fire lately. He’s slashing .368/.457/.737 with four home runs and two stolen bases over his last 10 games with Double-A Tennessee, which was particularly encouraging to see after a down May in which he OPS’ed a meager .683. He had among the very best plate discipline/bat-to-ball/exit velocity underpinnings of any first round talent last summer, and I’ve been known to practice extreme patience with those profiles – Dylan Crews and Walker Jenkins chief among them. Shaw was 2-for-4 with two home runs and a walk on Sunday.

There’ve been a few Echedry Vargas (TEX) entries in the hallowed Threecap halls of late, most recently on back-to-back days a little over a week ago. He hasn’t played much in the days since, logging three consecutive hitless games from June 14th to June 16th and then disappearing for a week before resurfacing on Sunday, which makes it pretty darn impressive that he’s popping up here again. I’ve written a lot about him since he returned from injury (I recommend checking out the Threecap repository where you can search every article I’ve posted this year), but I’ve yet to touch on his affiliation with an organization called Finlete. They’ve signed a deal with him allegedly worth 10% of his career earnings, likely as a way to infuse him with cash in the near-term, and offer the ability to purchase shares in his future salary. This may read like an ad but – to be as clear as possible – I find this sort of arrangement rather predatory. He was 4-for-6 with a home run on Sunday.

I thought I was so smart when I comped Dylan Beavers’ (BAL) swing mechanics to Christian Yelich (not a performance or profile comp, simply a visual), only to find out that they made the exact same comment on MLB Network’s coverage of the draft. He remains a favorite of mine, perhaps because I’m quite fond of Christian Yelich, and he clocked in at 73 on my last top 100 update. He pushed his way to Double-A in his first full year as a professional in 2023, returned to the level this year, and is currently slashing .250/.356/.431 over 258 plate appearances. He initially had bat-to-ball concerns coming out of the draft but his contact rate has improved significantly over the course of his short pro career. He hit 11 home runs in 525 plate appearances last year and has already swatted nine in 258 this year, though his slugging percentage has fallen 36 points, roughly in-line with his year-over-year decline in batting average. He was 3-for-4 with a double on Sunday.

So Many Whiffs They Call Him K-Rob.

Austin Krob (SDP) was a 12th rounder in 2022 out of TCU where he tossed 128.1 innings of 3.79 ERA ball in a mix of starting and relief. His primary strengths are that he’s (1) left-handed and (2) able to throw three pitches competently including an out pitch against batters of both handedness. Those skills served him well until this year as he faces Double-A hitting for the first time, and his ERA has ballooned from 3.94 in High-A last year to 5.40 this season. He had the outing of his career on Sunday, going 7.0 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts against the Amarillo Sod Poodles. 

Jackson Ferris (LAD) is most well-known for his inclusion in the deal that freed Michael Busch from the depths of the Dodgers 40-man roster. He’s a pretty good pitcher, too, and threw 56.0 innings of 3.38 ERA ball as a 19-year-old in Single-A while striking out 32.5% of all batters he faced last year. It’s been a little bumpier in High-A this season, but he’s looked really good over his last four starts. In that time he’s thrown 21.1 innings, struck out 32 batters, and allowed just five earned runs for a 2.11 ERA. Command/control has been the persistent issue for him as he walked 13.9% of batters in 2023 and is issuing free passes at a 11.6% rate this year. He went 6.0 innings, struck out eight, and did not allow a run on Sunday.

Good Lord. 

The table has seen better days. Just two guys put up zeroes and the highest strikeout total was eight. It was nice to see Mike Burrows back in action and Brad Lord made his Triple-A debut.

Here’s Tuesday’s viewing guide with my recommendations italicized as usual:

• Matt Wilkinson (3.79 ERA) for the Lake County Captains (CLE) at 6:05 ET

• Will Warren (6.65 ERA) for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (NYY) at 6:35 ET

• Joander Suarez (4.39 ERA) for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (NYM) at 6:35 ET

• Chayce McDermott (3.84 ERA) for the Norfolks Tides (BAL) at 6:35 ET

• Trace Bright (4.08 ERA) for the Bowie Baysox (BAL) at 7:00 ET

• Jacob Misiorowski (3.44 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 7:35 ET

• Jairo Iriarte (4.31 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 8:00 ET