Beck's Minor League Threecap: 6/15/2024

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Happy Saturday, Duggies. I ran a poll in the discord community earlier this week that indicated an overwhelming majority of readers would prefer I focus more on the guys they know and dive deep primarily on players that have a real shot at being risers, so I’m experimenting a bit today with that approach. I will still touch on deep league prospects because I find the storytelling of baseball to be far more compelling than reiterating where I have a top 100 prospect ranked and those guys are the fabric of modern baseball. There’s enough here for everybody to get what they need for their leagues! As always, I’m open to feedback and questions in the comments.

Away we go!

Bowling Ballesteros.

I’ve admittedly never been much of a Moises Ballesteros (CHC) fan, and that’s putting team rooting interest aside. It’s probably a personal bias and a holdover from old-school body scouting that I need to push back against, but I had (and to a certain extent still have) concerns about his frame and lack of a true defensive home. Athleticism matters in real baseball and positional viability, to say nothing of versatility, relieves pressure on the bat as the sole determinant of whether a prospect will be a big league regular. It’s getting harder to argue with the results and underlying data, though, as he’s repping a .305/.379/.505 slash as a 20-year-old in Double-A while supporting it with above-average bat to ball and exit velocities. He hit for the cycle on Friday and is the first player in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 to do so this year.

Zach Dezenzo (HOU) missed the first two months of minor league action with a wrist ailment and made his season debut on 6/4. He’s since appeared in just three games (6/6, 6/8, and 6/14), all at third base, but with no real indication on why he’s playing so sparingly. In any event, the results have been solid as expected in the Florida Complex. He’s got hits in three of his four games played including a pair of three hit games. He hasn’t totally fallen off my radar – he was a top 100 guy for me in January – but we’re really waiting for his return to Double-A action. There’s a lot to like in his profile, particularly the damage on contact (108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity in 2023), though his contact rates remain a question. He posted around a 70% total contact rate last year that manifested in a 25.9% overall strikeout rate that ballooned to 28.5% at Double-A.

Checking in on Brett Baty (NYM) and he’s thrashing the International League. He’s also the owner of a strange slashline quirk wherein his batting average is actually higher than his on-base percentage (.519 vs. .500, both fantastic but a statistical oddity nonetheless). This is usually only possible in small samples as it requires almost never walking and producing sacrifice flies or bunts. Baty has dominated Triple-A in the past, so it’s not necessarily new, but his four games since being demoted to Syracuse have included 11 hits, three doubles, and a home run. The most interesting piece here is that he played his first game at second base on Thursday. He went 3-for-3 with a double and a sacrifice fly on Friday. 

Hold Me Closer, Caden Dana.

Caden Dana (LAA) has that dog in him, man. He is going deep into every game and has cleared 6.0, 8.0, and 7.0 innings in his last three starts. Eight of his 12 starts have been at least six innings and 11 of 12 have been at least 80 pitches, which is wildly impressive for a 20-year-old in Double-A. Length is exceptionally important in points formats where outs are points and I love Dana in that regard. I am a little concerned about this workload; pitchers are breaking at an astonishing rate and wonder if he’s not best served getting a shot in the bigs. He’s yet to allow more than three earned runs in any start this year and has already eclipsed his career high in single-season innings, so the proverbial clock is ticking. He went 7.0 innings of one-run ball on Friday and struck out nine.

First I was devastated, then I was a little concerned, and now I’m buzzing with excitement. Shane Baz (TBR) had a shaky return to competition post-Tommy John surgery, posting a 7.71 ERA, 11.0% strikeout rate, and 15.9% walk rate through his first five starts with Durham. His last three have been cash money, though, as he’s tossed 15.0 innings of 1.20 ERA ball with a 38.9% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. I think we’re pretty close to seeing him back on the mound for the Rays, it’s just a matter of building up his stamina. He’s gone 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0 innings over his last three outings.

Even though Zebby Matthews has leapfrogged David Festa (MIN) as the top pitching prospect in Minnesota for me, I do think the latter will get the first shot at a rotation spot in Minnesota. His strike throwing has improved as the season has progressed and I’m a fan of the full arsenal, but the slider and changeup have really shined this year. He’s regularly posting 50%+ whiff rates on his slider and the cambio has a 43.6% whiff rate for the entire season. He went 6.0 innings and struck out 10 while allowing two earned runs on four hits on Friday.

Scary Gill Hill. 

The table is on a certified heater. Dollander really looks like he could be the first pitching prospect to be viable in Coors since Jon Gray, Shane Baz is rounding back into form and should be with the big league club soon, and Gary Gill Hill has an 80-grade name. Nobody in the table surrendered more than four earned runs.

Here’s Sunday’s viewing guide with my recommendations italicized, as usual:

• Santiago Suarez (4.86 ERA) for the Charleston RiverDogs (TBR) at 1:00 ET

• Joey Cantillo (3.38 ERA) for the Columbus Clippers (CLE) at 1:05 ET

• Mick Abel (6.31 ERA) for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (PHI) at 1:05 ET

• Cade Kuehler (2.70 ERA) for the Augusta GreenJackets (ATL) at 2:00 ET

• Justin Wrobleski (3.41 ERA) for the Tulsa Drillers (LAD) at 2:00 ET

• Moises Chace (2.16 ERA) for the Aberdeen Ironbirds (BAL) at 2:05 ET

• Chandler Champlain (3.00 ERA) for the Omaha Storm Chasers (KCR) at 2:05 ET

• Tink Hence (3.19 ERA) for the Springfield Cardinals (STL) at 2:05 ET

• Ian Seymour (2.16 ERA) for the Montgomery Biscuits (TBR) at 2:15 ET

• Quinn Mathews (3.24 ERA) for the Peoria Chiefs (STL) at 3:05 ET

• Emiliano Teodo (2.08 ERA) for the Frisco RoughRiders (TEX) at 7:05 ET

• River Ryan (0.00 ERA) for the Oklahoma City Baseball Club (LAD) at 7:35 ET