Beck's Minor League Threecap: 6/1/2024

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Good afternoon, friends. Happy Saturday! I hope you were able to tune into the Chase Burns vs. Trey Yesavage duel earlier today. Yesavage had a heroic outing, going 7.1 innings on 112 pitches and holding Wake Forest to just one run in an elimination game. Both arms are projected to go in the first half of the first round in a little over a month.

JoJo Finding His Mojo.

Joendry Vargas (LAD) is one of my favorite young players in all of baseball. My pal Peyton Skinner (@prospectpeyton on Twitter) talked me into him as his favorite in the 2023 IFA class based on his frame (6-foot-4, 175 lbs), athleticism, and potential as an above average hitter for both contact and power. He tore up the DSL last summer to the tune of a .328/.423/.529 slash with seven home runs, 12 doubles, and 19 stolen bases in 48 games, ultimately finishing top ten in each triple-slash category among DSL’ers with 200 or more plate appearances. What’s more: he was 17 years old while many of the league leaders had age advantages. Now in the Arizona Complex league, Vargas has vaulted himself into a top-30 position in wRC+ after a relatively lukewarm start and is one of eleven 18-year-olds in that group. All of this to say he’s a top-50 prospect in baseball, is proving it on the field, and if you can buy at a discount and bear to wait while for his debut, I would encourage you to do so. He went 4-for-5 with a home run, two RBIs, and three runs scored on Friday.

What a weird profile Yanquiel Fernández (COL) has. He was absurdly productive at High-A last year despite an unsavory swing decision pattern, perhaps influenced by a friendly run environment in Spokane, and landed on top-100 lists for Baseball America, Major League Baseball, and Baseball Prospectus. When he’s right he possesses one of the most appealing swings in baseball that also happens to produce nonchalant missiles, but when he’s wrong it’s pretty ugly. He hit a wall once at Double-A Hartford and finished his stint at the level with a .206/.262/.362 slash over 237 plate appearances, which was not entirely unexpected given his swinging strike and chase rates earlier in the year but was exaggerated by a 56 point drop in his BABIP. Back at Double-A to open this year, things have gone a little better and he’s sporting a 105 wRC+ through 21 games. He went 4-for-4 with a double on Friday.

Don’t Talk to Me Eiberson Ever Again.

Much to my surprise this is Eiberson Castellano (PHI)’s second appearance on the Threecap, and I only say that’s a surprise because usually you remember writing about a guy with a name like that. Here’s what I had to say last time:

“Eiberson Castellano is a 22-year-old righty in the Phillies’ system who signed in the 2018-19 international period out of Venezuela. He doesn’t have standout stuff, nor does he have a lengthy or exemplary track record, and the likelihood that he returns any sort of fantasy value is rather low, but he had a great second appearance of the year for High-A Jersey Shore. He went five scoreless innings while striking out six and allowing just two hits, dispensing of 16 batters in just 54 pitches.”

Since then Eiberson has been solid if unspectacular – that is until Friday’s start against the Brooklyn Cyclones. He went 5.2 innings, allowed two earned runs, and struck out 13 batters.

Jarlin Susana (WSH) totally bucks the Nationals’ insistence on ‘just throwing strikes’, and perhaps in their defense, it isn’t totally working for him. He’s carried a 7.47 ERA through nine starts in 2024, and starts is a generous term. He’s collecting just 10 outs per appearance on average, and that combined with his mediocre 62% strike rate makes it pretty unlikely he’s a starter long-term. If you know anything about him it’s probably his stature (6-foot-6, 235 lbs) or the velocity readings on his fastball (comfortably sitting high 90s), and while the former is great for a starter, the latter feels like it’ll play far better short spurts. Yesterday was the zenith of his season as he went 5.0 scoreless innings, surrendered one hit and one walk, and struck out nine. It was his longest outing of the year both in terms of innings and pitch count.

I loved me some Jake Eder (CHW) in 2021 when he was mowing down hitters (34.5% K%) and preventing runs at an elite rate (1.77 ERA), as did everybody, but he hasn’t been the same guy post-Tommy John surgery. His stuff backed up rather significantly upon return in 2023 (26.2% K%), his control escaped him (13.5% BB%), and the outing I saw from him in-person at the AFL was eye-opening enough that I am almost certain he was tipping pitches. The 2024 season to-date has been friendlier to him – he’s throwing for the Birmingham Barons in the Southern League (Double-A) and is carrying a 4.01 ERA after yesterday’s outing – but it’s becoming more and more likely that the arm we fell in love with a few years ago may not be coming back despite the strong desire to see him succeed. It saddens me immensely. Yesterday was a bright spot, though, as he went 6.1 scoreless innings, walked two, and struck out eight.

Herky-Hjerpe. 

Big table, only two blanks. Hjerpe and Henderson had nearly identical lines at the same level in the same league, Ashcraft threw the ball pretty well, and Suarez struck out a clean 10 batters. It’s a little unlucky to give up four baserunners and have three of them score, but it was a really solid outing for the youngster in Tampa Bay’s system.

Sunday’s viewing guide with my recommendation(s) italicized:

• Luis Perales (0.00 ERA) for the Portland Sea Dogs (BOS) at 1:00 ET

• Chayce McDermott (3.77 ERA) for the Norfolk Tides (BAL) at 1:05 ET

• Brock Selvidge (3.40 ERA) for the Somerset Patriots (NYY) at 1:05 ET

• Hayden Birdsong (1.96 ERA) for the Richmond Flying Squirrels (SFG) at 1:35 ET

• Emiliano Teodo (2.09 ERA) for the Frisco RoughRiders (TEX) at 2:05 ET

• Hurston Waldrep (2.92 ERA) for the Mississippi Braves (ATL) at 3:05 ET

• Shane Baz (6.00 ERA) for the Durham Bulls (TBR) at 3:05 ET

• AJ Blubaugh (3.16 ERA) for the Sugarland Space Cowboys (HOU) at 3:05 ET

• Cristian Mena (3.70 ERA) for the Reno Aces (ARI) at 4:05 ET

• Brandon Sproat (1.89 ERA) for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (NYM) at 5:05 ET

• Cade Kuehler (3.60 ERA) for the Augusta GreenJackets (ATL) at 5:05 ET