Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/31/2024

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Welcome, welcome. I’m starting this article in the morning but I have a sneaking suspicion it’ll be another at-night Threecap. So, future reader, whatever time it is as you read this, thanks for joining me. Let’s jump into yesterday’s performers!

Mc-A-Who?

…Is the natural question I had after seeing Charles McAdoo (PIT) went 5-for-6 on Thursday night, bringing him to a .331/.405/.538 slash through 43 games at High-A. He was a 13th rounder last summer out of San Jose State where he pulled together a very solid platform campaign, albeit in a less competitive conference (.325/.409/.543 with 10 home runs in 269 plate appearances). His relative lack of defensive versatility and level of competition both contributed to a later draft selection, though he reported to Bradenton immediately following the draft and performed well enough for him to open with Greensboro and play everyday at third base and right field. He’s on the watch list for deep leagues (500+ prospects rostered).

Jordan Viars (PHI) has been a professional ballplayer since his selection in the third round of the 2021 draft but has only managed to climb to Single-A Clearwater in that time. He’s off to the best start of his career to date (.260/.376/.510) by way of an outsized power surge. He’s up to six home runs and eight doubles in 31 games a year after tallying just six home runs and 16 doubles over 83 games a year ago, and it’s coming in the same league against roughly the same quality of competition. So what is he doing well to maximize his batted ball outcomes? Well, he’s hitting it hard (105.8 mph 90th percentile exit velocity) and in the air (24.8 degree launch angle), which we can agree is a good thing. The not-so-good part: he’s not making a ton of contact (75.0% zone contact), he’s striking out a lot (29.6% K) and he’s on his third stint in the Florida State League. He went 4-for-4 with three home runs on Thursday but he’s a non-prospect for fantasy purposes.

Now that we’ve established that hitting the ball hard and in the air is good, may I interest you in Alexander Canario (CHC)? He’s already been productive in his scant MLB playing time (.872 OPS in 42 career PAs) and is hammering the ball this year (108.5 mph 90th percentile EV), often in the air (17.4 degree launch angle). He’s always going to have a bit of a strikeout problem by way of middling zone contact rates (73.4% in 2024) and questionable plate skills (29.1% chase), but the ceiling on a guy like Canario is significantly higher than that of Jordan Viars. He’s been really solid in Triple-A through 30 games (.273/.367/.587) and I think he’s largely overlooked for fantasy purposes. There’s a bit of a logjam in Chicago that will limit his opportunities and that takes the luster off a bit, but the impact he offers is very attractive. He went 2-for-4 with two home runs and a walk on Thursday.

Don’t Shoot the Wenninger.

Jack Wenninger (NYM) is a relatively new name to me as a 6th rounder last summer out of the Big Ten. One thing I love about the Mets – their fans are rabid (complimentary) and do a lot of their own prospect coverage, which is remarkably useful for a guy like me who is attempting to cover hundreds of players spread across multiple levels. Amazin’ Avenue, a Mets community blog, described his usage as an amateur as 90%+ fastball/changeup with a high 70s curveball and a low 80s slider mixed in on occasion. The fastball has some carry, averaging 18.5 inches of IVB, and some horizontal movement that makes it a potentially above-average pitch. He had some issues holding his velocity into starts, regularly dipping into the low-90s after a few innings of work. Now a professional, Wenninger is touting much larger strikeout totals than he did at any point in conference play at Illinois. He’s got 60 punchouts in 44.1 innings and has dialed in his control to a manageable 7.6% walk rate, but it hasn’t totally translated to run prevention just yet (4.87 ERA). He went 7.0 innings, allowed two earned runs on four hits and no walks, and struck out 12 for St. Lucie (Single-A) on Thursday. 

I have no idea how the Rockies are doing this. Sean Sullivan (COL), Chase Dollander, and Carson Palmquist have all been simply excellent so far this year, and the former is doing it in Spokane which is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in minor league baseball per Baseball America’s MiLB park factors. Five of his eight starts have come at home. It helps to strike a lot of batters out (29.1% K%) and walk very few (2.0% BB%) to avoid batted ball outcomes, but just under 70% of batters have had plate appearances end by making contact in the field of play (or in foul ground, however you’d like to define playable). Sullivan has a 2.38 ERA through eight starts and notched his first complete game yesterday, going 9.0 innings and allowing just one run on a solo shot while striking out seven.

DJ Herz (WSH) lives at the end of a couple spectrums. He has always posted huge strikeout numbers (33.6% for his minor league career) and equally huge walk rates (not literally equal, but 15.3% for his career is a shocking figure). That story has continued into 2024 and the command/control issues that have plagued him make him a non-prospect for fantasy purposes. Every once in a while he flashes brilliance like he did on Thursday by going 5.0 innings of one-run ball while striking out 10 and walking just one, but those are flashes in the truest sense and have thus far been fool’s gold. 

Vindication (Please Imagine the Andre Braugher GIF). 

Only two blanks but one of them was Quinn Mathews so I’m all smiles.

If I could only watch one game tomorrow, it would be the head-to-head matchup between Caden Dana and Noah Schultz. Saturday’s viewing guide with my recommendation(s) italicized:

• Charlee Soto (6.35 ERA) for the Fort Myers Mussels (MIN) at 4:00 ET

• Yorman Galindez (3.16 ERA) for the Carolina Mudcats (MIL) at 5:00 ET

• Joander Suarez (3.74 ERA) for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (WSH) at 6:07 ET

• Quinn Priester (3.28 ERA) for the Indianapolis Indians (PIT) at 6:35 ET

• Adam Serwinowski (2.73 ERA) for the Daytona Tortugas (CIN) at 6:35 ET

• Trace Bright (3.10 ERA) for the Bowie Baysox (BAL) at 6:35 ET

• Winston Santos (1.69 ERA) for the Hickory Crawdads (TEX) at 7:00 ET

• Jhancarlos Lara (5.11 ERA) for the Rome Emperors (ATL) at 7:05 ET

• Caden Dana (2.76 ERA) for the Rocket City Trash Pandas (LAA) at 7:30 ET

• Noah Schultz (0.00 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 7:30 ET

• Dylan Lesko (6.52 ERA) for the Fort Wayne TinCaps (SDP) at 7:40 ET

• Carson Whisenhunt (6.02 ERA) for the Sacramento River Cats (SFG) at 9:37 ET