Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/30/2024
Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.
Hey folks! We have an at night version of the Threecap today as my day was eaten up by my job and then happy hour after work. Please enjoy, I demand it.
Nominative Determinism.
Talk about living up to your name! Trey Sweeney (LAD) went yard three times on Wednesday, two of the conventional variety and one of the inside-the-park flavor. The former first round pick has posted nearly identical seasons in back-to-back years (.763 OPS in 2022, .777 OPS in 2023) and is on his way to a very similar campaign this year. The two jacks and one run around the track yesterday brought his 2024 OPS to .763, actually identical to the figure he posted in 2022, but the shape of the production is a little different. Now at Triple-A, Sweeney is striking out and putting the ball on the ground much more than he has in the past. His surface results look the same largely because of batted ball luck (.326 BABIP in 2024, .258 in 2022). All said, there still looks like a path for him to be an above-average regular offensively. His 90th percentile exit velocity is two full ticks above the major league average while his zone contact and chase rates are bang-average.
Jared Serna (NYY) is of the same stature as guys like Ryan Bliss and Caleb Durbin, which is a roundabout way to say he’s on the smaller end of professional ballplayers. It hasn’t really stopped him from producing at the plate, however, and he’s getting it done again this year with Hudson Valley. He’s pumped 9 home runs in 43 games and is striking out just 18.3% of the time while walking in 14.9% of his plate appearances. He may be an interesting option in deeper leagues but doesn’t project to be a fantasy standout. He went 2-for-4 with a pair of home runs yesterday.
I’m putting the finishing touches on my top 100 prospect update and at the time of writing Kevin McGonigle (DET) isn’t on it. That gives me a lot of heartburn. He’s been scintillating in the Florida State League through 25 games, collecting 32 hits in that span en route to a .348/.446/.511 slash. The under-the-hood stuff looks quite good, too. His 102.1 mph 90th percentile EV is fine for his age (and frankly his size), but the real attraction here is his bat to ball (91.5% z-con) and plate discipline (19.1%) chase. I think I just talked myself into a top-100 placement in real time? I love doing the Threecap for precisely this reason. He was 3-for-4 with a double and two walks on Wednesday.
Don’t Shoot the Messinger.
We’ve got a couple of new names to the Threecap today, the first of which is Zach Messinger (NYY). He was a 13th rounder in 2021 out of the University of Virginia where he was primarily deployed as a reliever in his platform year, pitching to a 4.89 ERA over 57.0 innings and striking out 64 batsmen (26.2%). Now a starter, the results have been better than he saw in collegiate competition, but not by much. Yesterday’s start was by far the best of his season as he went 5.1 innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts. The 6-foot-6 righty has a full arsenal that includes a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup, but none of them are standout offerings.
Austin Peterson (CLE) was originally a Big Ten product before transferring to UConn and competing in the Big East (the inferior Big Conference). He was a punchout machine during his final two collegiate campaigns, sitting down 29.1% of all batters faced via strikeout over that time. Those have largely gone by the wayside since his selection in the 9th round of the 2022 draft, but he has shown off exemplary control by walking just 30 batters over 176.0 professional innings. He went 7.0 innings and struck out 13 batters while allowing just two earned runs on Wednesday.
Pee-Yew.
Pretty gross, to be frank. The lone clean outing went to Jaden Hamm, who continues to be one of the most effective arms in minor league baseball on a per-inning basis but hasn’t yet gone deep into games. Beasting Giesting pulled together his third straight 7.0 inning start, all three of which have come with nine or more strikeouts. The good news is that Friday’s viewing guide is jam packed, so the Saturday table will be enormous.
Friday’s viewing guide with my recommendation(s) italicized:
Braxton Ashcraft (3.76 ERA) for the Altoona Curve (PIT) at 6:00 ET
Josh Knoth (4.50 ERA) for the Carolina Mudcats (MIL) at 6:30 ET
Cade Povich (2.35 ERA) for the Norfolk Tides (BAL) at 6:35 ET
Trystan Vrieling (4.44 ERA) for the Somerset Patriots (NYY) at 6:35 ET
Cooper Hjerpe (4.25 ERA) for the Peoria Chiefs (STL) at 7:05 ET
Santiago Suarez (5.54 ERA) for the Charleston Riverdogs (TBR) at 7:05 ET
Mick Abel (6.21 ERA) for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (PHI) at 7:05 ET
Adam Maier (3.86 ERA) for the Augusta GreenJackets (ATL) at 7:05 ET
Carson Palmquist (2.76 ERA) for the Hartford Yard Goats (COL) at 7:10 ET
Marco Raya (4.21 ERA) for the Wichita Wind Surge (MIN) at 7:35 ET
Brett Wichrowski (5.74 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 7:35 ET
Logan Henderson (3.38 ERA) for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (MIL) at 7:40 ET
Noah Schultz (0.00 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 8:00 ET
Chase Dollander (3.41 ERA) for the Spokane Indians (COL) at 9:35 ET