Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/23/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Hey all, I’m doing a little better today after spending 19 of the last 24 hours asleep trying to recover from whatever illness ailed me over the last few days. As such, you’re getting a bigger Threecap today! I’m also making pretty good progress on a refreshed top-100 (maybe deeper, we’ll see how it goes).

That’s all of the good news I have. I’ll be at a cabin tomorrow celebrating an anniversary with little-to-no internet access, so a Friday Threecap seems unlikely.

Let’s jump in!

Three Strikes and You’re Out, Three Home Runs and…?

Sometimes you get a hold of one. Every once in a while you do it twice. Three times? Alright Jhonkensy Noel (CLE), I think you’ve had enough. The big fella went yard three times on Wednesday in a gratuitous showing that brought his season total to 12 and raised his OPS for Triple-A Columbus to a respectable .843. We know the big fella can hit it hard – he’s carrying a 108.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity this year – but questions about his hit tool remain. He’s making zone contact at a 74.5% clip, but chasing out of the zone 43.5% of the time, and that’s a figure I don’t expect to improve against major league pitching. He’s been relegated to a first base role after seeing most of his starts in 2023 and early 2024 in the outfield, and it’s likely he sticks there or serves as the primary DH moving forward. The Guardians could use some juice in the lineup, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him audition on the big league roster over the summer, but I remain skeptical that his performance will translate cleanly.

We love us some Uncle Ben Rice (NYY)! He’s back at Double-A after a 48-game vignette at the level last year and is largely seeing the same results. The batting average and OPS have atrophied as a result of worse results on balls in play, but he’s still performing well under the hood. Agustin Ramirez has passed him for me – he has better batted ball data and swing decision metrics – but he’s still an interesting bat in the Yankees’ system. He went 2-for-2 with a pair of home runs and a pair of walks on Wednesday. He’s homered again today as I’m writing to you.

Score another one for the short kings. Caleb Durbin (NYY) may stand 5-foot-6 but he’s got 6-foot-3 game. He’s running a .301/.414/.457 slash at Triple-A after putting together a solid 47 games at Double-A and later tearing up the AFL. His stature may mean he doesn’t have a ton of  fantasy relevance at the next level, but he’s one of my favorite players to watch. He plays with the throttle wide open and will not be outhustled, which I’m sure will ingratiate him to the Yankee faithful. He went 4-for-5 with a double and a home run on Wednesday.

Beasting Giesting.

I so badly want Spencer Giesting (ARI)’s nickname to be “Beasting Giesting”. There’s no pronunciation guide on his Baseball Reference page, so I’m going on blind faith that those two words rhyme. The 6-foot-4 lefty was an 11th rounder in 2022 out of the University of North Carolina, where he was primarily a reliever who racked up strikeouts and pitched to a 4.47 ERA over 127.0 collegiate innings. He’s now throwing for High-A Hillsboro and has been lights out through his first seven starts, collecting 46 strikeouts in 41.0 innings and surrendering just three earned runs in that time. His outing yesterday was his magnum opus as he went 7.0 scoreless innings with 13 (!!!) K’s. He doesn’t have an overwhelming arsenal – his fastball sits in the low 90’s after primarily hovering in the high 80’s as an amateur, though it plays well at the top of the zone – but his curveball looks like it could be a true plus offering.

I haven’t written about Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) at all this year, which was kind of a surprising revelation to me. He’s an interesting prospect that went in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft as a true two-way player but has since missed significant time with Tommy John surgery and dropped the hitting charade. He tossed 65.0 innings split between Single- and High-A with superlative results (from a run prevention perspective) despite a meager 21.6% strikeout rate. This year he’s climbed to Double-A and has yet to allow a run at the level through his first 13.0 innings, including his scoreless 7.0 with eight strikeouts on Wednesday. He has a big fastball that sits mid-90’s, a cutter, a curveball, and a changeup and shows plus control.

I last wrote about Zebby Matthews (MIN) in early April and, uh, things have changed. First, he’s one of the biggest pop-up arms of the year. His fastball velocity is up significantly year-over-year and he’s developed a sweeper, which has helped his K-rate jump from 26.4% in 2023 to 34.5% in 2024. Perhaps more stunning has been his otherworldly control; he had not walked a batter in any of his first five starts (or first 34.1 innings of the year) and finally ceded his first free pass on Wednesday. He’s firing strikes at a 69% rate for the year, and beyond that signaling he’s a sure-fire starter, his 6-foot-5 frame is more than enough to handle a starter’s workload. He was promoted to Double-A in early May and is handling it with aplomb, pitching to a 1.02 ERA over his first three starts (17.2 innings). Wednesday’s outing was 6.0 innings of one-run ball with three hits, a walk, and eight strikeouts. 

He Mena’s Business! 

A clean sweep! Everybody I recommended for Wednesday’s slate actually threw in their scheduled start. It’s refreshing to keep the entire slate. We got dandies from McDermott (10 Ks over 5.0 IP), Jack Leiter (back at Triple-A, yo-yoing between Round Rock and MLB), and Cristian Mena (9 Ks over 5.0 scoreless IP, he’s been good in the PCL).

Friday has our biggest viewing guide in quite some time, including some of my favorites (Klassen, Mathews) and a couple of head-to-head matchups (Susana vs. Clemmey, Misiorowski vs. Thorpe) – cannot recommend enough:

• Anthony Solometo (6.55 ERA) for the Altoona Curve (PIT) at 6:05 ET

• George Klassen (0.33 ERA) for the Clearwater Threshers (PHI) at 6:10 ET

• Josh Knoth (4.50 ERA) for the Carolina Mudcats (MIL) at 6:30 ET

• Thomas White (3.72 ERA) for the Jupiter Hammerheads (MIA) at 6:30 ET

• Jarlin Susana (8.06 ERA) for the Fredericksburg Nationals (WSH) at 7:05 ET

• Alex Clemmey (8.65 ERA) for the Lynchburg Hillcats (CLE) at 7:05 ET

• Adam Maier (3.44 ERA) for the Augusta Greenjackets (ATL) at 7:05 ET

• Moises Chace (0.91 ERA) for the Aberdeen Ironbirds (BAL) at 7:05 ET

• Mick Abel (5.40 ERA) for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (PHI) at 7:05 ET

• Jacob Misiorowski (2.32 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 7:35 ET

• Drew Thorpe (1.50 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 7:35 ET

• Justin Wrobleski (4.35 ERA) for the Tulsa Drillers (LAD) at 8:05 ET

• Quinn Mathews (1.29 ERA) for the Peoria Chiefs (STL) at 8:05 ET

• Marco Raya (4.98 ERA) for the Wichita Wind Surge (MIN) at 8:05 ET

• Chase Dollander (3.49 ERA) for the Spokane Indians (COL) at 9:35 ET