Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/19/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Well, folks, that’s the end of the streak. I’d published a Threecap every day since March 29th save for a couple of Tuesdays when there’d been no games the day prior. It was a streak that threatened DiMaggio’s 56 but ultimately fell short at 45. I’m going to move on the only way I know how and that’s by getting back on the horse with a bigger Threecap that features a few more players than usual.

Please enjoy! I demand it.

It’s Not Delivery, It’s De Paula.

He’ll bring the baseballs to you! Josue De Paula (LAD) has been on a total heater this week. He’s left the yard four times in his last three games while reaching base 10 times (six hits, four walks). He’d started the year somewhat slow, compiling a meager .262/.338/.410 line with a 26.4% K-rate in the month of April, but has turned it on since the calendar flipped to May. He still projects to be rather positionless as he grades at the bottom of the defensive spectrum even at an outfield corner, which will put pressure on his bat, but there’s optimism that he can develop into enough of an offensive threat that it won’t matter. Breaking through in Los Angeles may prove more difficult than other orgs, and they haven’t necessarily shown shyness with trading away highly regarded prospects in the past, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds a home at the big league level in a different organization. He went 3-for-4 with two jacks on Friday and was unfortunately hitless on Saturday, bringing his home run streak to an end after three games.

We’re writing about Brennen Davis (CHC) again. There’s not much new to report re: the profile we’ve seen emerge – big time power, both raw and surface, and a lot of swing-and-miss – but he has returned to his torrid pace after a brief hiatus on Friday. Saturday’s game saw him go 4-for-5 with another two home runs, bringing him to eight home runs on the year and seven in his last eight games, and raise his slash to .270/.432/.584. Given that he’s on the Cubs’ 40-man roster, already in Triple-A, and Chicago is two games back of Milwaukee after winning just 4 of their last 10, it’s not inconceivable that we see him in the big league lineup over the summer.

I last wrote about Austin Charles (KCR) less than a week ago. He’s only notched three hits in the four games since, including a couple of 0-fers, but all three of those hits were round-trippers. It looks like the work he put in this off-season to refine his mechanics at the plate are working. Here’s what I had to say last time:

“It’s not often a 20th round pick becomes a somewhat well-known prospect, but that’s how last year played out for Austin Charles in his second year as a pro. As we’ve discussed, where you go in the draft is often less important than the financial commitment you command, and Charles pulled down $430K in a range that typically garners bonuses in the five-figure range. He’d played just two games at the Complex before being promoted to Single-A where he spent the remainder of last year and slashed a meager .230/.290/.356, but the reason for interest has less to do with the surface performance and more to do with his physical tools. He plays a solid shortstop and has above-average wheels in spite of his gangly 6-foot-5 frame, and the benefit of being so massive is that he can generate plus raw power rather effortlessly. He requires a lot of refinement – watching him makes it clear he hasn’t yet worked out his mechanics entirely, though he’s cleaned up a lot of his actions in the box year-over-year – and is doing so back at Single-A to open 2024. He’s off to a slow start but collected three hits in four plate appearances on Wednesday including his third home run of the campaign.”

Jeremy Rodriguez (NYM) was the top international signing for the Diamondbacks in 2023, commanding $1.2M as an athletic, projectable, up-the-middle lefty. He made his way to the Mets organization as the sole return for Tommy Pham at last year’s deadline. He fared far better with the Mets DSL team (.422/.536/.711 in 13 games) than he had the Diamondbacks (.246/.363/.377), ultimately finishing the year as one of the more intriguing talents at the level in all of baseball. He’s a bat speed and frame darling, those two attributes being among the most important for projecting future offense, and he’s been outstanding early this year. He’s yet to hit a home run but has collected a hit in seven of the nine games he’s played in at the Florida Complex and is currently carrying a .406/.525/.500 line after his 4-for-4 day on Friday.

It’s been a tale of two stretches so far this year for Druw Jones (ARI). He had opened the year with an abysmal .218/.343/.346 slash and a 42.6% K-rate through his first 16 games, which cratered a lot of optimism he had cultivated by ending last year strong. From April 30th to May 17th, however, he put together a .340/.407/.489 line and cut his K-rate to a still troublesome but far more manageable 27.8%. I’ll be honest, I’m still not very optimistic despite the recent binge. He was buoyed by a .469 BABIP, which is the only way you carry a .340 average while striking out as much as he was, and there’s a lot to pick apart with regard to his swing. In any event, right now seems like the best time in recent history to shop him around should you be so inclined. 

It’s unfortunate I had to see Carson Williams (TBR) in the AFL as he struggled his way to a .246/.366/.275 line. It was still evident that he’s a phenomenal athlete – he was a wizard with the leather – but a healthy diet of right-handed sliders kept him flummoxed during my time in the desert. He’s at Double-A this year after spending time in High-, Double-, and Triple-A last year amid roster construction issues arising from unsavory behavior of which I’m sure you’re aware. He’s been truly excellent in the first six weeks of competition, cutting his K-rate from 31.8% to 24.3% year-over-year, swatting seven home runs in 32 games, and carrying a 1.057 OPS on May 19th. I think there’s a decent shot we see him in Tampa Bay over the summer, obviously dependent on whether or not he’s truly closed the hole in his swing against right-handed spin, but his chances are slimmer than they were on opening day by way of strong performances from Jose Caballero and Amed Rosario thus far. Williams went 2-for-4 with two home runs on Saturday, bringing his hitting streak to a solid six games. I had him as my 40th overall prospect in January and there’s no reason for him to be lower in my next update.

Trayce Thompson (NYM) torched a trio of taters on Saturday and tacked on another on Sunday. He’s a 33-year-old playing in Triple-A with a career 93 OPS+, so not much to do here besides tip your cap.

No Hits!

It was only seven innings, but Ian Mejia (ATL) tossed a no-hitter on Friday. I hate having to qualify it but it was the second game of a double header, so only seven innings, but it was still the best outing of his season, which was a difficult task going into Friday night. His previous two starts combined for 12.2 innings with 16 strikeouts and no runs allowed. His ERA is down to 1.70 across 42.1 innings for Double-A Mississippi, and while I last wrote that there probably isn’t much to see here for fantasy, I might be changing my tune a little.

It’s been tough sledding for Javier Rivera (CIN) through his first 23.0 innings with High-A Dayton this year. He threw 42.2 innings at the level last year with modest results – a 4.01 ERA and 19.4% K-rate – but the ball isn’t bouncing his way so far in his second go. He’s surrendered 27 hits and 11 walks in 23 innings, putting his WHIP at 1.65, and is carrying a 7.83 ERA even after a stellar evening on Friday in which he went 5.0 scoreless and struck out eight. Rivera doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff nor the command to warrant attention at present.

Just know I’m licking my chops over this Quinn Mathews (STL) outing. It was his High-A debut after dominating the Florida State League to the tune of a 1.47 ERA and 35.0% K-BB%, and he didn’t disappoint. We’ve noted already that the FSL is tinkering with an ABS zone that is much wider than the version currently in use at Triple-A, so I was curious how his control would fare dealing with a much less forgiving zone, and he issued just a single walk across 26 batters faced. He went 7.0 innings without allowing a run and struck out 11 in the process. I feel more confident this year in my ability to evaluate pitching, and the stuff I was seeing from Mathews early in the year really hooked me. His fastball is sitting just under 95 mph with plus carry and a very low VAA (-4.0 ish), which gives it exceptional shape. Pair that with rather good command/control and the arsenal should fare well regardless of the level.

Today marks the second Threecap appearance for Mavis Graves (PHI), who was the org’s sixth round pick in 2022. He’s an imposing figure standing 6-foot-6 but doesn’t have incredibly overpowering stuff, and his professional debut in the Florida Complex was one to flush. He walked 29 batters in 34.0 innings en route to a 7.68 ERA but he’s reeled it in so far in 2024. His 6.0 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts was one of the best pitching performances of the weekend.

Michael Morales (SEA) was the Mariners’ third round selection in 2021 out of a Pennsylvania high school. He’s a 6-foot-2, 205 lb righty who has made his way through Rookie Ball and Single-A without turning many heads, and he’s starting 2024 in High-A where he’s getting the best results of his career thus far. His arsenal doesn’t stand out in terms of quality but is filled out with four pitches (fastball, curveball, slider, changeup). It’s possible he adds velocity as he matures, which would help his 90-94 mph heater play up given its riding life. He went 6.0 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts on Saturday.

I’ve long thought Justin Wrobleski (LAD) was one of the more underrated arms in the Dodgers system, but the results weren’t helping me lead the charge. He hadn’t been bad through his first seven starters by any means – he had a 4.86 ERA and 25.4% strikeout rate across 33.1 innings in that time – but his box scores weren’t jumping off the page. He hadn’t struck out more than six batters in an outing until Saturday’s start, which is a surprise given the quality of his arsenal. He got back on track with 6.0 innings of one-run ball and nine strikeouts this weekend. His control has been notably exceptional this year as he’s yet to allow more than one free pass in any of his eight starts for Double-A Tulsa this year.

Mega Table!

I wasn’t totally sure how to handle the day off, so I’ve prepared two full tables of results for y’all. The first is from Friday’s outings, and we had some good ones (Snelling and Hamm) mixed in with some not so good ones (what on Earth happened, Bubba Chandler).

And now we have Saturday’s table. You can’t see me but I’m hootin’ and hollerin’ over Quinn Mathews’ High-A debut.

Sunday’s viewing guide. I’m aware this is going out too late for anybody to watch live, but these are still the arms I’ll consider going back and watching film on. Italicized names are the ones I’m most interested in following:

• Keider Montero (3.27 ERA) for the Toledo Mud Hens (DET) at 12:35 ET

• Owen Murphy (1.82 ERA) for the Rome Braves (ATL) at 1:05 ET

• Trystan Vrieling (4.99 ERA) for the Somerset Patriots (NYY) at 1:05 ET

• Carson Palmquist (2.13 ERA) for the Hartford Yard Goats (COL) at 1:10 ET

• Tugboat Wilkinson (1.02 ERA) for the Lynchburg Hillcats (CLE) at 2:00 ET

• Darren Bowen (4.43 ERA) for the Cedar Rapids Kernels (MIN) at 2:05 ET

• Emiliano Teodo (2.60 ERA) for the Frisco RoughRiders (TEX) at 2:05 ET

• Reid VanScoter (3.72 ERA) for the Arkansas Travelers (SEA) at 2:35 ET

• Cooper Hjerpe (3.57 ERA) for the Peoria Chiefs (STL) at 3:05 ET

• Jairo Iriarte (2.70 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 5:00 ET