Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/7/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Hello! Today we’re doing a rare Tuesday Threecap. We haven’t had any previously because, well, there were no games on Mondays. That changed with the opening of the complexes who have a Monday - Saturday schedule instead of the traditional Tuesday - Sunday at all full-season levels. These will be light, likely highlighting one or two complex guys who are standing out to me over the last week or so.

I’m still figuring out how exactly to format the Tuesday article, so we may go through some iterations. That or I’ll forego them and try to retain my precious day off from writing. Either way I hope you’ll join me for the ride.

Tuesday’s Eye-Catchers.

Cincinnati turned to the prep ranks in the 2nd round last summer to snag Sammy Stafura (CIN) out of a New York high school that had not previously produced a draft prospect. He was billed as a fast, twitchy athlete with above-average bat-to-ball ability and a future defensive home up the middle. He got off to a phenomenally slow start after the draft, ultimately posting a .071/.212/.191 slash over 53 plate appearances with just three hits in total during his stint in the Arizona Complex. Some thought he may jump to the Florida State League to open the year regardless of that skid, but he’s back in the ACL at least briefly and has jump-started his season with five hits in his first two games including a double and a triple.

Sometimes you don’t see the breakout for a little while, as is potentially the case with Josi Novas (KCR). He signed in 2022 and spent his first year in the DSL with results that wouldn’t warrant a second look, but he has shot out of the gate in the Arizona Complex with raving physical reports. His 6-foot-4 frame looks promising with added weight this year. He’s got two home runs and two doubles in his first two games and could be a name to monitor in the early-going.

Robert Calaz (COL) is my favorite of these three and it’s not particularly close. He posted absurd underlying power numbers en route to a .325/.423/.561 line with seven home runs in 189 plate appearances last year, and replicating those results stateside would constitute a huge marker of future success. He has a home run and two doubles in his first two games.

What to do with Complex Breakouts.

I’m almost never going to recommend a complex- or DSL-level arm to you given the amount of time required before they’re ready and the likelihood that they’ll (A) regress and lose luster or (B) get injured and have significant delays and/or return without the same stuff. In lieu of writing about any complex-level pitching performances today (I will in the future when I deem them worth your attention, which is valuable) I’m going to give some brief tips on how to manage both complex and DSL breakouts.

1. Have the roster space and be prepared to churn

I always recommend keeping a minor league roster spot or two available to cycle prospects through. I feel particularly strongly about doing so for complex-level players as they’re usually the most unknown and therefore the most likely to fly up rankings.

2. Don’t fall for surface lines, rely on underlying data where you can

I strongly recommend looking for a flag from Chris or well-known publications like Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus when deciding to move a prospect. You’re going to see outrageous stat lines early on and they can be smoke and mirrors – at this level we care more about traits than results.

3. Very, very rarely will there be a complex-level arm worth jumping on early

Last year’s headliners were guys like Jeter Martinez and Henry Lalane, who didn’t pick up steam until after the All Star Break. Defenses are bad at the CPX/DSL level and can inflate statlines. I care far more about stuff than results for arms, so reiterating the call to use publications with pitch-level data and sources on-site for your discovery. Most of the promising breakouts can be had for very cheap towards the end of the year.

Wednesday Watchin’.

I didn’t put out a viewing guide for Tuesday because only the complexes were live, so this section is dedicated to what to watch tomorrow instead. Back to our normal schedule on Wednesday.

My particular interests italicized as usual:

• Luis De Leon (2.57 ERA) for the Delmarva Shorebirds (BAL) at 11:00 ET

• Keider Montero (1.77 ERA) for the Toledo MudHens (DET) at 11:05 ET

• Samuel Aldegheri (0.41 ERA) for the Jersey Shore BlueClaws (PHI) at 11:05 ET

• Hurston Waldrep (4.38 ERA) for the Mississippi Braves (ATL) at 12:05 ET

• Joander Suarez (2.60 ERA) for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (NYM) at 6:00 ET

• Trystan Vrieling (3.41 ERA) for the Somerset Patriots (NYY) at 6:00 ET

• Jonah Tong (0.00 ERA) for the Brooklyn Cyclones (NYM) at 7:00 ET

• Charlee Soto (4.96 ERA) for the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels (MIN) at 7:05 ET

• Adam Mazur (2.39 ERA) for the San Antonio Missions (SDP) at 7:35 ET

• Tekoah Roby (6.94 ERA) for the Springfield Cardinals (STL) at 8: