Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/4/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Hello, all, I hope you’re well. I’ve been unwell for a great part of today so I’m sitting down to write this around dinner time. My fiancee is making lasagna, which I’m hopeful will be a panacea for all things ailing me. 

Today will be the first day with Complex league players eligible for the rundown. I’m more likely to be aggressive with pop-ups there, both in terms of picking them up and cutting them loose. They often present the highest ROI in terms of ranking inflation over the course of the year. Stay sharp!

I’ll Never Let Lugo.

I was a fan of Jack Hurley (ARI) ahead of the 2023 draft as a lanky outfielder with plus power and opportunity for more by way of adding good weight to his frame. There were some concerns about his willingness to swing out of the zone as an amateur that have manifested in a 29.9% K-rate in 147 plate appearances in 2023 and a 30.5% K-rate early in 2024. The first month of competition was not the friendliest to Hurley, but he’s on a four-game hitting streak and had two home runs in five at-bats on Friday, bringing his total line to .218/.282/.372.

There was a little buzz around Matthew Lugo (BOS) coming into last year after he’d OPSed .844 over 114 games with Greenville the year prior. He’s always had more attention than most as a product of him being Carlos Beltran’s nephew, though his prospect stock had cooled last year as he hit a rough patch upon reaching Double-A. He’s back at the level in 2024 after playing there for the entirety of last season and is off to a much better start, carrying a .351/.431/.807 slash through 16 games. He was 4-for-5 with a home run on Friday.

The transition to professional ball has been tough for Arjun Nimmala (TOR). He’s struck out in 35.8% of his plate appearances through 22 games this year with Dunedin and has generally looked overmatched early on. His last four games have featured nine strikeouts in 16 at-bats, but he got back on track with a 2-for-4 night on Friday with a home run and a double. There’s still a ton of promise here – this blurb is not meant to eulogize him in any way – but it’s not the start you would have hoped for him.

Jacob Wilson (OAK) was recently featured on my April Prospect Team of the Month at shortstop, which is no small feat at a loaded position. He carried a .409/.429/.667 line for the duration of the month and hit three home runs, which may have been three more than I had anticipated for him in a park that isn’t friendly for surface power. He was 4-for-5 with a double and two runs scored on Friday, continuing his reign of terror in the Texas League. His profile becomes a lot more interesting if he is truly showing more surface power. His underlying data at Grand Canyon indicated 20-30 grade raw power.

I’m a big fan of Aidan Miller (PHI), who is one of the most decorated prep hitters I can recall. I ranked him 73rd overall in my off-season top 100 and it feels like it might be low already. He’s carrying a .328/.380/.516 line through 15 games at Single-A so far and is notably striking out in just 18.3% of his plate appearances with a .188 ISO. He was 3-for-5 with a pair of doubles on Friday.

I last wrote about CJ Kayfus (CLE) on April 28th and he has not relented since. He was 3-for-4 with two doubles, two RBI, and two runs scored on Friday, bringing his total line to .364/.419/.621 through 17 games with seven hits in his last five contests. Here’s what I had to say about him last time:

“CJ Kayfus has been one of the best hitters at High-A this year, full stop. He’s seventh in OPS among hitters with 50 or more plate appearances at the level and has swatted three home runs while carrying a .360 batting average. He was billed as a contact-oriented first baseman at draft time, so it only makes sense that Cleveland snapped him up in the third round last summer. Perhaps there’s more raw power here than initially thought, given that he’s pacing to outdo his home run total with aluminum last year, but it could also be small-sample variance. The offensive profile for a first baseman needs to be near-perfect for them to hold down the position at the big league level and return fantasy value, so while I’m intrigued by his early performance I’m probably not running out to grab him just yet unless it’s a very deep league.”

Braiden Ward (COL) was a 16th rounder in 2021 out of the University of Washington where he hit a total of three home runs over 751 plate appearances. He’s outdone that figure as a professional (five home runs in 754 plate appearances), but he isn’t on the Threecap for his thunder, he’s here for his lightning. He went 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles and five (5) stolen bases against the Eugene Emeralds on Friday. He’s been very good for Spokane so far, carrying a 1.068 OPS through 63 plate appearances, a surprising figure given his lack of historical extra-base contribution.

Baltimore Buzz.

Chayce McDermott (BAL) and Cade Povich have been neck-and-neck in the race to promotion since the beginning of the year, and the former turned on the afterburners in his last start. I think Povich has a narrow edge, largely because he’s left-handed and McDermott is not, but they have very similar innings counts in Triple-A and it genuinely could be either one of them to the bigs first. McDermott finished his outing on Friday with 6.2 near-perfect innings, walking two and striking out 11.

I’m not sure what the Mets are up to but they have a number of buzzy arms down on the farm. Jonah Tong has been the headliner, but Brandon Sproat (NYM) has plenty of potential as well. He had previously been drafted in the third round in 2022 by the Mets but opted not to sign and instead returned to the University of Florida, which paid off after the Mets took him again last summer a round earlier. He’s been excellent through his first 19.2 innings, allowing just two earned runs and striking out 25. His last start was the best of his young season as he went 5.0 scoreless, allowed just one hit, and struck out eight. Control and general strike-throwing has been a problem thus far.

Luis Perales (BOS) really popped up early last year after he strung together 13 great starts at Single-A Salem and was subsequently promoted to High-A Greenville. As expected, things were a little more challenging there and he pitched his way to a 4.95 ERA and walked 22 batters in 36.1 innings. He’s returning to the level this year and has a 3.46 ERA through his first four appearances, and the difference thus far has been that he’s reeled in his control. He went 4.0 innings on Friday and struck out seven without allowing a run.

Lazy Sunday.

Enough of you have personally reached out and/or commented that previous day’s results will be a mostly permanent fixture. It’s a labor of love for the Dynasty Dugout and I think a great value add. There will be days I miss this segment as life picks up, vacations and holidays roll around, and what-have-you. If you’re not already using milbtracker.com, I strongly encourage you to make an account (free).

Friday’s results:

Sunday’s viewing guide, with my particular interests italicized as usual:

• Jhancarlos Lara (0.00 ERA) for the Rome Braves (ATL) at 1:00 ET – Season Debut

• Anthony Solometo (6.23 ERA) for the Altoona Curve (PIT) at 1:00 ET

• Jaden Hamm (1.33 ERA) for the West Michigan Whitecaps (DET) at 1:05 ET

• Paul Skenes (0.53 ERA) for the Indianapolis Indians (PIT) at 1:35 ET

• Justin Wrobleski (4.76 ERA) for the Tulsa Drillers (LAD) at 2:00 ET

• Jackson Ferris (5.68 ERA) for the Great Lakes Loons (LAD) at 2:10 ET

• Reid VanScoter (2.77 ERA) for the Arkansas Travelers (SEA) at 2:35 ET

• David Festa (2.18 ERA) for the St. Paul Saints (MIN) at 3:07 ET

• Drew Thorpe (1.20 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 5:00 ET

• Jake Bloss (0.00 ERA) for the Corpus Christi Hooks (HOU) at 6:05 ET – AA Debut