Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/25/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Hello best friends, welcome back to the Threecap! It’s an at-night version because I spent my day at the Taco and Margarita Festival hosted at CHS Field, home of the St. Paul Saints. I had high expectations but it ended up being very poorly planned and there wasn’t nearly enough staff to handle the demand. Waits for food and drink exceeded 90 minutes for portions of the day. All said I was happy to spend time in the sun with friends, but dang! Get it together!

That’s all the diatribe I have in me today. Let’s jump in to Friday’s performers.

Jaguar on the Farm(elo).

I used to be a Kevin Alcantara (CHC) fan. I still am but I used to be, too. The 2024 season has made it a little more difficult to be a vocal proponent of his future as a big leaguer – he’s managed a meager .248/.298/.376 line thus far – but I maintain that his ceiling rivals that of any prospect in baseball. Part of his struggle has been that his .310 BABIP is the lowest he’s run since Rookie Ball in the Yankees system, part of it is that he’s running the lowest flyball and pull rates of his career since 2021, and the rest is likely that he’s getting his first prolonged taste of Double-A, which is the most difficult level to acclimate to in my opinion. He started the year with a horrid 0-for-26 stretch which is having an outsized impact on his slash given he has a total of 141 at-bats at the time of writing, and he’s since carried a .304/.344/.461 slash, so I think he’s doing just fine. He was 4-for-4 with a double on Friday and I just got a nifty notification on my Apple Watch that he’s gone yard today (Saturday).

Matthew Lugo (BOS) has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this year, full stop. I last wrote about him in early May when he was OPSing a cool 1.238 through 16 games, and while that figure has come down to earth a little (1.031 through 35 games), he’s still running the 6th highest wRC+ among qualified hitters in Double-A. He’s focused on attacking pitches in the zone and trying to rein in what was a flailing aggression last year into a more focused, damage-oriented, hunt-your-pitch approach this year. It’s possible his transition into the outfield has taken some of the mental load off of him. He went 2-for-3 with a double and a home run in the first leg of a double-header on Friday, bringing his home run total to 10 on the year.

I’ve written a lot about the other preps Seattle took last summer, but I’ve neglected to give Jonny Farmelo (SEA) any attention. He was the second of three high schoolers the Mariners nabbed in the first round (Colt Emerson at 22, Jonny Farmelo at 29, and Tai Peete at 30), and currently sits at #98 on the Baseball America Top 100. He’s played really well in his first stint as a pro, entirely skipping the complex and instead reporting to Single-A, and currently owns a .281/.417/.432 slash with a 16.6% walk rate. He’s an incredibly fluid athlete with a broad frame that looks like it will support future power, though he’s more hit-over-power at present with 70-grade wheels. He went 4-for-4 on Friday with three doubles and a stolen base. Going entirely off the cuff here, but I think he’ll get serious consideration for my own Top-100 update.

New Best Pitch Just Dropped (Kinda).

While Allen Facundo (NYY)’s name sounds like it was hand-picked for the Bronx, he’s actually Venezuelan and was part of the Yankees’ 2021 international free agent crop. The 21-year-old lefty spent his first professional season in the DSL, then missed all of 2022 due to injury and returned in 2023 to throw just 30.1 innings in the Florida Complex last year with remarkably good results (2.37 ERA, 40 Ks, 13 BBs). He was a bit of a surprise inclusion in the Single-A rotation to open the year but has been absolutely scintillating through his first eight outings, recording a 2.40 ERA and 38 Ks in 30.0 innings to-date, nearly identical to the line he posted in the Complex just one year prior. Reports out of New York have him sitting around 94 mph and topping out at 97 with modest hop from a low three-quarters slot. He complements it with a sinker that has significant tail, a nasty slider that averages 42 inches of vertical break (and led MiLB in whiff rate entering Friday), and a changeup with arm-side movement. He’s a little undersized at just 6-foot and there is very little projection remaining, but his present stuff is already quite good. He went 5.0 scoreless innings and struck out 11 on Friday while registering 25 whiffs, 17 of which came on his slider.

Parker Messick (CLE) was Cleveland’s second round selection in 2022 following a storied career at Florida State, where he was named to the all All-ACC team and later an All-American. He didn’t pitch following the draft and instead reported to Single-A where he threw a touch over 50 innings before being promoted to High-A where he’s returning this year. The results have been fine – he has the execution and stuff to perform well at this level, as is the expectation – but not really eye-popping enough to warrant attention. It looks like a fourth or fifth starter all clicks and he continues to climb, a projection which is aided by his left-handedness and release point. He went 6.0 clean innings with 10 strikeouts on Friday.

Tink Hence (STL) must have heard me talking trash about how Quinn Mathews is coming for his throne in St. Louis, because he just unleashed his best start of the year. He allowed just five hits and a walk while striking out 13 batters over 6.0 innings on Friday. I’ve written a lot about him over the last year and a half, but the biggest revelation this year has been how deep into games he’s going – he’s averaging 88 pitches and 5 innings per start since his second outing of the year – which has been a huge change year-over-year.

Fart Noises. 

I was pretty pumped about this slate. Personal cheeseballs Klassen and Mathews went and it was a bit of a mixed bag as the latter had a rough outing for his second start with Peoria. Thomas White has really rounded into form over his last three starts, yielding just three earned runs over 14.1 innings. Marco Raya kept the San Antonio Missions off the basepaths for four innings. The rest… not so good!

Sunday’s viewing guide:

• Jhancarlos Lara (1.17 ERA) for the Rome Emperors (ATL) at 1:00 ET

• Will Warren (7.62 ERA) for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (NYY) at 1:05 ET

• Trace Bright (5.72 ERA) for the Bowie Baysox (BAL) at 1:05 ET

• Jonah Tong (1.86 ERA) for the Brooklyn Cyclones (NYM) at 2:00 ET

• Caden Dana (2.60 ERA) for the Rocket City Trash Pandas (LAA) at 3:35 ET

• Charlee Soto (6.97 ERA) for the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels (MIN) at 5:00 ET

• Cade Kuehler (3.46 ERA) for the Augusta GreenJackets (ATL) at 6:05 ET

• Emiliano Teodo (2.20 ERA) for the Frisco RoughRiders (TEX) at 7:05 ET

• Cooper Hjerpe (4.21 ERA) for the Peoria Chiefs (STL) at 7:35 ET

Carson Whisenhunt (6.37 ERA) for the Sacramento River Cats (SFG) at 8:05 ET