Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/15/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Good morning, folks! Writing to you today from Philadelphia and trying to get this out before I head over to Citizens Bank to catch Phillies/Mets tonight. 

Save Some Homers for the Rest of Us, Augustin.

Usually when I say a guy is on a heater, that implies that it isn’t sustainable. Of course what Agustin Ramirez (NYY) is doing isn’t entirely sustainable – it’s ridiculous to expect that he would carry a 1.000+ OPS over the course of the entire year – but I think he’s a very good hitter. I’ve written about him extensively as a byproduct of his torrid start, like this blurb from the last time he appeared:

“I think we’re looking at a top-100 prospect in Agustin Ramirez. Chris put him at 103 in his April update, which is probably fair, but I’m a little more bullish. He makes plus-plus swing decisions, has plus power, and makes enough contact for it to play regardless of his final positional landing spot. I think it’s likely he moves out from behind the dish to play first base or maybe a corner outfield spot in a pinch. He was 3-for-4 with a home run, a double, two walks, and two RBI on Friday, bringing his season HR total to eight.”

He hasn’t slowed down. He has nine hits in his last four games including four extra-base hits (two doubles, two homers). He went 4-for-5 and launched his 12th home run in 30 games on Tuesday. He’s a top 100 prospect and he’s not just squeaking in – at least for me.

Former Golden Spikes award winner Ivan Melendez (ARI) has all the power in the world, but is a little harder to pin down than that superlative might suggest. The Diamondbacks insist on playing him at third base where he’s maybe passable in a pinch but doesn’t project there long term, and he’s shown some concerning swing and miss. He’s got a career 31.2% strikeout rate including a 35.3% figure at Double-A last year, but it came with a .272 average, so it’s tough to forecast what those punchouts mean for his total production. He’s brought that number down to a marginally more palatable 30.9% rate in 29 games at the same level this year. It’s been a slow start, and I’m not particularly hot on his profile, but he had a dandy of a night on Tuesday by going 4-for-5 with two home runs and a double.

There’s never been a question about the physical tools for Pedro Leon (HOU) but rather the manifestation of those tools into on-field production. He had one of the quieter 20/20 seasons in baseball last year, putting both his plus speed and surprising above-average power on display, but struck out a staggering 160 times in 128 games. He has below-average contact skills that manifest in punchouts and depress his batting average, but his plate discipline has been strong enough for him to run solid on-base percentages. At this point he’s in his age 26 season and getting his second taste of Triple-A and entering Quad-A territory. He’s off to his best start in several years, slashing .301/.387/.552 with eight home runs and 12 swipes through 36 games, and kept it rolling on Tuesday with two home runs and six RBIs in a 3-for-6 effort.

Right Jab, Right Hook.

I’m keeping today’s rundown a little more brief to prioritize time with friends and the ballgame tonight. Go Phils!

This was the best start of the year – and perhaps of his career – for Braxton Ashcraft (PIT). He’s often overlooked in the Pirates’ system, which is deceivingly loaded on the pitching side between Jones, Skenes, Chandler, Solometo, but he’s an interesting arm in his own right. He was a second rounder in 2018 as a prep two-sport star and has had to deal with a number of adversities as a professional, the coronavirus pandemic and a Tommy John surgery chief among them, but 2023 was a big year for him. He progressed to Double-A and carried a 2.39 ERA on the year with his best innings coming in his final stop. He’s back at the level to open this year and is pitching fine, though it seems unlikely he’ll ever been an overpowering presence at the big league level. He’s been a control guy with modest strikeout potential for a while, which could translate to a solid #5 starter if all goes well from here. He’ll need to build up to prove he can handle the workload demanded from a big league starter. He went 7.0 scoreless on Tuesday with 10 strikeouts, by far the most in a single outing this year.

Owen Murphy (ATL) has really turned my head this year. The 2022 first rounder is tearing up High-A at 20 years old, pitching to a 1.54 ERA and 38.7% K-rate through his first 41 innings, and is doing so with a unique “invisiball” heater. The pitch doesn’t stand out in terms of velocity, but his ability to hide it and ride it give it qualities not dissimilar to Bryce Miller’s fastball. His slider and curveball aren’t slouches, either, but key for his development as he climbs will be a weapon against left-handed hitting. His changeup is underwhelming but could be the answer. He went 6.1 innings on Tuesday and only allowed three hits while striking out 11. Double-A might be in the near future for him.

Oops! All Strikeouts.

Dang, guys. This table is a little sad. I’d originally recommended six arms for Tuesday but half of them didn’t end up going. On the other hand, Braxton Ashcraft and Cooper Hjerpe shoved, so score one for the southpaws!

Thursday’s viewing guide. Italicized names are the ones I’m most interested in following:

• Blade Tidwell (2.59 ERA) for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (NYM) at 6:05 ET

• Nolan McLean (3.00 ERA) for the Brooklyn Cyclones (NYM) at TBD (G2 of DH)

• Darren Bowen (4.43 ERA) for the Cedar Rapids Kernels (MIN) at 7:35 ET

• Brett Wichrowski (5.63 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 7:35 ET

• AJ Blubaugh (4.39 ERA) for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys (HOU) at 8:35 ET