Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/14/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Dear Reader,

No big news or anything, just keeping you on your toes. I’m writing to you at 4:30 AM from the airport gate prior to my flight to Philly, where I’ll be spending Tuesday through Friday and catching a Phillies game along the way. I have the classic “visit all 30 ballparks” bucket list item and I’ll get one stadium closer this week!

Today’s Threecap is only inclusive of ACL, FCL, and DSL games. I’ve decided to do a Tuesday version despite quite enjoying the day off because I think it makes sense to highlight the complexes on their own. These blurbs will include recaps of performance over the last week to give our young guys a little extra love.

ACL, FCL, DSL, OMG.

We’ll start with the fella most dynasty players are familiar with. It feels like an eternity ago that Felnin Celesten (SEA) was widely considered the top player in the IFA class, perhaps exacerbated by big-time breakouts from Ethan Salas, Joendry Vargas, and Sebastian Walcott, but there’s little doubt in my mind that Celesten could be the best among them. He missed the Dominican Summer League season with a hamstring strain last year and is making his professional debut in the Arizona Complex this season as a result and has really gotten off to a scalding start. He’s a fluid, switch-hitting shortstop with a belt full of physical tools in an org pretty well-known for developing their top international signees of late. He’s collected 11 hits through seven games and 31 plate appearances so far this year, six of which were for extra bases (three doubles, a triple, and two home runs), and doesn’t look overmatched whatsoever. Jumping directly into the Complex without any prior in-game seasoning is a lot to ask, and of course it’s early, but what I’m seeing with my eyes matches what’s been written. He hit two home runs on Monday, including this roughly 430-foot blast captured by none other than Chris Welsh. There is absolutely no reason for Celesten to be unrostered, and if he is, consider yourself the luckiest fella to read this article today (and then promptly pick him up).

I don’t mean to pocket watch, but the signing $1.2M bonus Yordany De Los Santos (PIT) commanded was itty-bitty relative to the top of the class (and my bank account). All jokes, De Los Santos was a highly-regarded prospect by many outlets, including MLB Pipeline who had him as the #12 international free agent in the 2022 signing class. He had an underwhelming DSL campaign that summer before reporting to the Florida Complex and receiving a swift promotion to Bradenton after just 17 games. He looked unprepared for the level of competition once in Single-A, and evidently the Pirates agreed, holding him back in extended spring training and ultimately returning him to the FCL to begin the season. Typical disclaimers here (it’s early, he’s young, what-have-you), but he’s off to a good start through seven contests, which isn’t entirely unexpected given his performance in the same place a year younger the previous season. He has six hits in that time, two of which cleared the fence in fair territory, and sports an .868 OPS. He’d posted really strong zone contact and hard-hit rates in 2023 but is running a 34.6% K-rate so far.

I want you to know I did everything I could to uncover Edgleen Perez (NYY)’s signing bonus but it is seemingly not reported anywhere, which would imply to me it was rather small ($10K or less), although I’m very open to being incorrect. He’s our first DSL-er on the Threecap this year (as far as I can recall) and is entering his second go-around in the league after posting a .259/.389/.317 slash over 175 plate appearances last summer. He’s listed at 5-foot-10, 155 pounds, which explains the lack of power output as it’s difficult to hit the ball hard if you don’t have the muscle or inertia to do so. There’s nothing outright negative about his OBP – it’s better that it’s high than low, for certain – but the quality of pitching in the DSL is so low that simply keeping the bat on your shoulder can do a lot in terms of reaching base. His first handful of games this year have shown more surface impact and I’d be curious to know whether he’s filled out meaningfully. In any event, there isn’t much to do yet outside of the absolute deepest of leagues. He’s rocking a .429/.652/.786 line through six games.

The Watchlist.

I’m foregoing the opportunity to write about any Complex arms this week as our sample sizes are miniscule and they aren’t often worth picking up. Instead, highlighting here some players outside of most top 100 lists that I think are worth watchlisting (this collection will exclude players I’ve been vocal about already this year – George Klassen, Quinn Matthews, Jonah Tong, Ralphy Velazquez, Josue Briceno, et. al.).

• Brailer Guerrero, OF, TBR

• Jay Allen II, OF, CIN

• Zac Veen, OF, COL (feels weird putting him here, but he was not T100 on April 1)

• Gabriel Rincones Jr, OF, PHI

• Kristian Campbell, 2B, BOS

• Ben Cowles, 3B, NYY

• Jeral Perez, 3B, LAD

• Carter Jensen, C, KCR

• Samuel Aldegheri, SP, PHI

• Brandon Sproat, SP, NYM

• Winston Santos, SP, TEX

• Owen Murphy, SP, ATL

• Zebby Matthews, SP, MIN

• Craig Yoho, RP, MIL

Hump Day Bump Day.

I’ll be honest, no full-season games on Mondays gives me some much-needed respite from the viewing guide recap. Instead, here’s what to watch for tomorrow (Wednesday) – with a few fun arms going very early in the day:

• Trace Bright (2.93 ERA) for the Bowie Baysox (BAL) at 11:05 ET

• Brandon Sproat (0.00 ERA) for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (DET) at 11:05 ET

• Samuel Aldegheri (0.64 ERA) for the Jersey Shore BlueClaws (PHI) at 11:05 ET

• Michael Forret (3.22 ERA) for the Delmarva Shorebirds (BAL) at 6:30 ET

• Chayce McDermott (3.00 ERA) for the Norfolk Tides (BAL) at 5:35 ET

• Maddux Bruns (1.04 ERA) for the Great Lakes Loons (LAD) at 7:05 ET