Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/11/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Today’s Threecap is an *at night* version because I fell into a deep and unforgiving hole playing Out Of The Park Baseball last night and through the day today. I’d recommend a copy – it’s fun and you can actually learn a lot about roster mechanics and construction. 

Here are Friday’s performers!

“Hold the Mayo” – Mike Elias.

I really hope I don’t have to write about Coby Mayo (BAL) soon. He’s running a 93.7 mph average exit velocity, 108.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, 83.3% zone contact rate, and 25.9% chase rate. He’s ready – you know it, I know it, the Orioles know it, and boy do Triple-A pitchers know it – and should be up soon. He went 3-for-5 with a home run, a double, a walk, and three RBIs on Friday.

Leandro Arias (BAL) signed with the Orioles in the 2022 IFA period for $600K and has since gone on a meandering journey from the DSL, to the Florida State League, to Single-A, and back to the Florida State League. Transparently I’m not sure what that’s all about, but he had a pair of home runs in a 2-for-2 night that included a walk. His minor league career to-date is just 387 plate appearances, but they haven’t been what the Orioles thought they might be buying. 

The fall league was good to Wes Clarke (MIL). He ended play with a 1.002 OPS and has kept it rolling into the minor league season, touting a 1.032 OPS after 11 contests. Clarke has plus underlying power and above-average plate skills, but his bat-to-ball has always been fringy and will be his undoing should things go awry this year and beyond. It’s too early to make any declarative statements given that he’s had just 45 plate appearances and I don’t have underlying contact data to support a hypothesis, but he’s only struck out in 9 of those 45 after registering 147 punchouts last year for a 29.2% K-rate. He went 3-for-4 with two home runs, four RBIs, and two runs scored on Friday.

Bunch of JAGs.

I wanted today’s rundown to be easy, breezy, and beautiful, but instead I picked three arms that I’m relatively unfamiliar with. We’re starting with Trenton Denholm (CLE), whose first name feels like it has an extra syllable. Be Trent or be nothing! He was selected in the 14th round of the 2021 draft out of UC-Irvine, where he made 49 starts and compiled a 3.44 ERA over 279.2 innings in his four years. He never carried big strikeout totals (20.1% in college), but that figure has ticked up in his second go around in High-A this year (27.9%). He punched out nine batters over 7.0 scoreless innings and only allowed three baserunners. He’s a 24-year-old repeating High-A, so I think it’s fairly safe to say there isn’t much fantasy appeal, but I am curious whether the new and improved strikeout rate is the result of a jump in stuff.

Jaylen Nowlin (MIN) attended the same Junior College as Cam Collier, albeit a few years before him. He was a 19th rounder in 2021, which makes me feel a little better about being relatively unfamiliar with him, and has had a rough go as a professional. He was thought to have potential as a backend starter or left-handed specialist at the time of the draft, but that was largely predicated on his ability to mix and match a trio of below-average offerings. That worked well against Single-A competition, but hasn’t been a winning recipe in the years since. His most likely outcome looks like organizational depth. He went 5.1 innings on Friday and struck out eight without allowing a run.

We’re staying deep in the mud with Joseph Montalvo (TEX), a 20th round selection in 2021 who has been far and away the most successful of this group. He was a converted shortstop who is new-ish to pitching – in his third year, all of which came as a pro – but has taken to it quite well. To this point in his minor league tenure he’s pitched to a 2.86 ERA with 166 strikeouts over 138.2 innings while progressing a level each year. His fastball looks like the only above-average pitch in his repertoire at present, and it’s probably asking a lot for him to make substantial leaps in stuff, but he could be worth a look in extremely deep leagues (30 teams, 1,000 prospects rostered or more). He went 5.0 scoreless and struck out seven on Friday.

High Cheese? Bye Cheese!

Oof. This is the worst slate of results I can recall for the viewing guide yet this year. Three of these arms had more walks than strikeouts, only one went longer than 5.0 innings, and only one escaped without surrendering an earned run. Sometimes you don’t have your best stuff.

Friday’s results:

Sunday’s viewing guide, with my particular interests italicized as usual:

• AJ Smith-Shawver (5.32 ERA) for the Gwinnett Stripers (ATL) at 1:05 ET

• Justin Wrobleski (4.76 ERA) for the Tulsa Drillers (LAD) at 2:00 ET

• Moises Chace (1.23 ERA) for the Aberdeen IronBirds (BAL) at 2:05 ET

• Cade Povich (1.69 ERA) for the Norfolk Tides (BAL) at 2:05 ET

• Ty Madden (5.11 ERA) for the Toledo Mud Hens (DET) at 2:05 ET

• Jimmy Joyce (0.00 ERA) for the Arkansas Travelers (SEA) at 2:05 ET

• Tink Hence (3.60 ERA) for the Springfield Cardinals (STL) at 3:05 ET