Beck's Minor League Threecap: 5/10/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Happy Friday, my friends. You’ve done it – you’ve gotten through the week unscathed (hopefully) – and I’m so proud of you.

In the hitters’ section of today’s Threecap we’re talking a little bit about how injury impacts performance through the lens of three hitters who had significant injuries in 2023 and lost a lot of their luster as a result. There are a number of players this applies to, but the point is that dynasty leagues aren’t a sprint. If you have conviction about a player, keeping that conviction alive through rough stretches when the player is hurt can be best practice.

Off we go!

A Different Kind of Ambulance Chasing.

The longer Zac Veen (COL) hits, the more I’m buying into the idea that the wrist injury that ultimately ended his season was the underlying cause for the uncharacteristically terrible results he had last year. He torched Single-A in his professional debut season in 2021, then found success at High-A and later scuffled at Double-A in 2022. He returned to Double-A in 2023 where he played 46 games and compiled a .209/.304/.308 line before having surgery to repair a tendon in his left wrist. Back at the level and presumably fully recovered, he’s been one of the most productive hitters in the Eastern League through his first 23 games. He has hits in seven of his last nine contests and had one of the best days of his young season on Thursday with four hits in five at-bats including a home run.

Miguel Vargas (LAD) has been quietly stellar for Oklahoma City thus far. I last wrote about him in early April and he hasn’t really slowed down at all. We’re not that far removed from talking about him as a plus-plus hitter with average power and above-average speed, but his exaggerated struggles coming off of a couple of hand injuries (hairline fracture in his pinky, hit-by-pitch on his thumb in the first week of the seasons) really depressed his outlook. Dodgers’ GM Brandon Gomes pinned his poor start on the injuries, and while I’m cognizant he has some incentive to wear rose-colored glasses, I find myself nodding along with him. It’s possible Vargas is a quad-A hitter, but I’m still bullish on the idea that he could be a solid contributor – potentially on another team. Vargas was 1-for-3 with a double and four walks on Thursday, bringing his total line to .288/.419/.568, seven home runs (as many as he hit in three months with the big league club last year), and a 29/29 K/BB.

Our last case study in injury significantly impacting performance is Marcelo Mayer (BOS). It was a shoulder impingement for Mayer, who was ultimately shut down in August after playing 78 games split between High-A and Double-A and scraping together a .236/.306/.433 slash. He’s admitted rather publicly that he was playing through the injury for a few months. The specific date he believes it occurred was May 7th, and his splits before and after corroborate his story. From opening day to the injury as he claims, he slashed .337/.414/.582 and had 15 extra-base hits in 23 games. From that date on, he limped his way to a .190/.256/.366 line. This isn’t to say I think Mayer is an elite fantasy prospect (I ranked him 36th in my offseason top 100 with the injury and its impact to performance in mind), but rather that injuries to hands, wrists, and shoulders predictably drive performance way down. Now fully healthy, Mayer is running an .822 OPS with Double-A Portland and had a trio of doubles in a 3-for-4 effort on Thursday.

Finally Something Going Right for Drake.

At least one Drake had a good Thursday. Can’t speak for that other guy, but the vibes seem real bad. Kohl Drake (TEX), on the other hand, struck out 10 over 5.0 scoreless innings to notch a win yesterday in what was by far his best outing of the year. He’s a pure reliever, so not much to say in terms of fantasy viability, but what a showing!

I can’t stay away from Colorado arms on the Threecap. Maybe they can’t stay away from me? Chase Dollander (COL) has been balling out at High-A Spokane. He’s struck out 43 batters in 24.1 innings thus far and is carrying a 2.59 ERA after striking out 10 and allowing two earned runs over 5.0 innings on Thursday. I know we have to fade Rockies arms because (1) the ballpark and (2) their iffy track record with highly-regarded pitching prospects over the last 10 years, but at what point have we gone too far with the presumptive top college pitcher entering the 2023 college season?

Angel Bastardo (BOS) is from Moron, Venezuela. Just going to leave that as a standalone statement and you, the audience, will do with that what you will. He struck out 10 over 5.0 innings while allowing three hits, three runs (one earned), and three walks against Binghamton on Thursday. He originally signed with the Red Sox for $35K in 2018 and has slowly worked his way up to Double-A and most likely profiles as a reliever long-term.

As a confessed stuffist, I must admit Brant Hurter (DET) isn’t my usual cup of tea. His 6-foot-6 frame looks like it should be capable of throwing missiles, but his game is more east-west pitchability. He has a nice sweeper with big horizontal break, a changeup that fades to his arm side, and a sinker that has a lot of run, all of which help him effectively mix-and-match both locations and velocity. He struck out nine over 5.0 innings of scoreless ball on Thursday. It’s possible he contributes for the big league club later this year.

Pittsburgh Paul.

Saturday’s slate is just as slammed as Friday’s. However, the number one viewing recommendation is Paul Skenes’ major league debut against the Cubs at 4:05 ET.

Thursday’s results:

Saturday’s viewing guide, with my particular interests italicized as usual:

• Jackson Ferris (4.70 ERA) for the Great Lakes Loons (LAD) at 1:05 ET

• Bubba Chandler (3.10 ERA) for the Altoona Curve (PIT) at 4:00 ET

• Jhancarlos Lara (0.00 ERA) for the Rome Emperors (ATL) at 5:00 ET

• David Festa (3.75 ERA) for the St. Paul Saints (MIN) at 5:05 ET

• Noble Meyer (4.26 ERA) for the Jupiter Hammerheads (MIA) at 6:00 ET

• Adam Maier (4.09 ERA) for the Augusta GreenJackets (ATL) at 6:05 ET

• Winston Santos (1.00 ERA) for the Hickory Crawdads (TEX) at 7:05 ET

• Jaden Hamm (1.14 ERA) for the West Michigan Whitecaps (DET) at 7:05 ET

• Dylan Lesko (9.39 ERA) for the Fort Wayne TinCaps (SDP) at 7:05 ET

• Yorman Galindez (2.08 ERA) for the Carolina Mudcats (MIL) at 7:05 ET

• Logan Evans (1.57 ERA) for the Arkansas Travelers (SEA) at 7:05 ET

• Jacob Misiorowski (2.70 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 7:05 ET

• Jake Bloss (1.54 ERA) for the Corpus Christi Hooks (HOU) at 8:05 ET