Beck's Minor League Threecap: 4/20/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Good afternoon and happy Saturday to all of my favorite people (anybody who reads the Threecap). I’ll be dialed in on baseball today until around 5:00 PM, then heading to spend some time with my fiancée. I hope you’ve got a good day ahead of you.

Let’s talk about yesterday’s standout performances! 

No Broken Ladders Here.

It isn’t the first Threecap appearance for Orelvis Martinez (TOR), but I’m hoping there aren’t many more in the future. He’s been outstanding for Buffalo (Triple-A) over his first 16 games, compiling a .318/.368/.667 slash with seven doubles, five home runs, 14 RBIs, 17 runs, and a 20.5% K-rate. He added his fourth and fifth home runs of the year on Friday with bombs in each of his first two plate appearances that left the bat at 104.4 and 105.5 mph, respectively. The Blue Jays are still running out an infield that includes Cavan Biggio, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Ernie Clement, and I think Orelvis will be in line for big league playing time sooner rather than later. All five of his home runs this year have come in the last six games.

Heston Kjerstad (BAL) saw Joey Loperfido’s home run binge last week and said hold my beverage! He swatted two of his own on Friday that left the bat at 95.1 and 102.7 mph. They weren’t Stantonian blasts by any means, but they count as all the same. It doesn’t change much in terms of my eval – he’s very good and deserves to play full time at the major league level – but the homers did change the complexion of the minor league home run leaderboard, which is now topped by both Loperfido and Kjerstad with 10 a piece.

Can you take me higher? Creed Willems (BAL) had a day yesterday, finishing his bout with the Hudson Valley Renegades with three doubles in five at-bats. The round mound of outbound baseballs (I’m trying here) jumped on radars early last year when he belted eight home runs in 30 games at Single-A Delmarva to open the season, but he really struggled upon promotion to High-A. He played 75 games at the level in 2024 and scuffled to a .586 OPS. He’s back this year with life anew and has been fantastic through 10 games.

Niko Kavadas (BOS) got some attention in 2022 when he torched both Single- and High-A over the course of 96 games. He racked up 24 home runs and 22 doubles in that time, leading a lot of folks to believe he could be a productive 1B/DH profile at the big league level. The wheels came off a little when he got to Double-A as his K-rate ballooned to an unwieldy 35.8% in 2023. He’s off to a much better start this year with four home runs in 11 games, two of which came on Saturday, and a 23.9% strikeout rate.

Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. (ATL) is a new name for me, and it turns out it’s for good reason! He was a 17th-rounder in 2022 and has played just 163 games since being drafted. He finds himself in High-A as a 23-year-old to open 2024, where he’s off to the best start of his career, professional or otherwise. Through 11 games with Rome he’s racked up a .362/.412/.489 slash with 17 hits and five stolen bases. He wrapped yesterday’s game with four hits in six at-bats, three of which were doubles, to go with four RBIs and a run scored.

Rocky Mountain High.

It seems like the Rockies always have someone shoving down on the farm this year, whether it’s Sean Sullivan, Carson Palmquist (COL), or Chase Dollander (COL). Transparently, I wish these guys were in any other org, but I’m still happy to see them performing well. Palmquist split 2023 between High-A and Double-A and pitched his way to a 3.90 ERA as one of the most effective starting pitching prospects in the Rockies system. He’s returning to Double-A and put together perhaps the best start of his professional tenure, tossing 6.0 scoreless innings with ten strikeouts. The end of the rotation may be a viable outcome, but a left-handed long relief role seems most likely.

Dollander, on the other hand, still looks very much like a starter (not that it was ever a question). He struck out 12 over 5.1 innings on Friday while allowing four earned runs on three hits and a walk. Of course expectations should be tempered because of his future home park, but he’s pitching extremely well thus far with 27 strikeouts in 15.1 innings and a 2.93 ERA. He’s looking like a value in FYPDs.

Sem Robberse (STL) had what I believe to be (but am unwilling to verify) the longest start of any pitcher in minor league baseball this year with a scoreless 8.0 inning outing on Friday that included nine strikeouts. This is his second time on the Threecap which should be unsurprising when you look at his 1.59 ERA over 22.2 innings with Triple-A Memphis. St. Louis has the oldest average age among their starting pitchers of any team in Major League baseball at 35.3 years, which could mean an opportunity for Robberse as the vets labor through a full season.

The biggest pop-up in the Yankees system, at least on the pitching side, has been Trystan Vrieling (NYY). He’s up to 18.2 innings on the year across three starts and totes a 0.48 ERA thus far. The 2022 third rounder missed all of last year with an elbow fracture and is getting his first taste of full-season competition as a pro with Double-A Somerset, a somewhat aggressive assignment given his lack of track record. He tossed 7.2 innings on Friday without allowing an earned run while striking out six.

Cade Povich (BAL) couldn’t quite keep up the control gains he showed early in the year, but still spun a very nice game for Norfolk for his fourth in a row. He ultimately went 5.1 innings and struck out nine while allowing four walks and three hits. He didn’t surrender an earned run. I remain confident he’s the next man up in Baltimore.

Today’s buzzy prospect is firmly Winston Santos (TEX) after he struck out 12 over 5.0 scoreless innings on Friday. He’s up to 24 strikeouts over 15.2 innings on the year with just one earned run allowed over that time. His fastball was sitting around 96 mph yesterday with 19 inches of induced vertical break and he has an added wrinkle with a new slider this year. A promotion to Double-A feels like it could be in the cards early this year.

4/20 Watch Party.

It feels like a good day to be glued to a screen. Here’s what you can look forward to for the rest of your Saturday:

• Connor Phillips in his fourth start for the Louisville Bats at 4:05 ET

• Moises Chace in his second start for the Aberdeen Ironbirds at 5:05 ET

• Hayden Birdsong in his third start for the Richmond Flying Squirrels at 6:00 ET

• Noble Meyer in his third start for the Jupiter Hammerheads at 6:05 ET

• Aidan Curry in his third start for the Hickory Crawdads at 6:30 ET

• Joe Whitman in his third start for the San Jose Giants at 8:00 ET

• Sean Sullivan in his third start for the Spokane Indians at 8:05 ET