Beck's Minor League Threecap: 4/19/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

FRI-DAY NIGHT! Hey folks. I’m writing to you on Thursday evening following a 15 hour work day. Things might get weird (things are always a baseline level of weird but you get the gist). I hope you’ve had a great week so far. Only eight hours or so of work separates you from the weekend. You’ve got this!

Triple-Doubles.

We’ve got a trio of two-bomb evenings on the rundown today!

A lot of people bailed on Cam Collier (CIN) after a first full professional season that yielded mixed results. I was among them as he did not feature in my top 100 (nor do I think he should have) but entirely writing him off was probably premature. He was playing in a pitcher-friendly full-season league at just 18, and while the results were tepid at best, he showed some signs of life in his underlying data. He managed a zone contact rate around 87% and a 105 mph 90th percentile EV even while slogging his way to a .706 OPS over 461 plate appearances. He’s come out of the gate spectacularly in his age-19 season at High-A (after playing in Single-A last year) to the tune of a .340/.354/.681 slash through 11 games. He went 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs in yesterday’s contest, bringing his home run total to four in a little under two weeks of games. We could be seeing a 19-year-old in Double-A if this continues.

Where were you when Everson Pereira (NYY) belted 20 home runs over 49 games in 2021? That stretch vaulted him up prospect rankings universally and turned heads all over the place at the time and he’s matching that pace early in 2024. He’s up to six home runs in 15 games (19.6 over 49 games) after adding two more on Thursday in a 3-for-4 effort. We know who Pereira is at this point – a slugger who does far more damage than his frame might suggest with major hit tool concerns – and he’s going to have nights like Thursday from time to time while mixing in nights like last Saturday (0-4, 4Ks).

I was rather high on Carson Williams (TBR) coming into 2024 despite some concerns with his hit tool, specifically his ability to pick up right-handed spin. I don’t have the data to parse exactly what’s changed in 2024 with regard to his contact and chase rates against right-on-right sliders, but he’s absolutely raking at Double-A so far. He had just 26 plate appearances at the level under his belt coming into the year and struck out in 31.8% of his plate appearances at High-A prior to that, so to see him cut that figure to 19.1% in 2024 is eye-catching. He’s up to a .442/.489/.791 slash after swatting his second and third home runs of the year on Thursday. I don’t really see anybody talking about him and his performance thus far, but to say it “out loud” as it were, he’s a top-50 prospect and rising.

Kevin Alcantara (CHC) was mired in an 0-26 slump to open the year, a stretch in which he struck out in 37.9% of his plate appearances. The dam finally broke on Tuesday when he recorded his first hit in a 1-for-5 night. He’s got his batting average up to a lofty .180 with hits in each of his last three games, including a 4-for-4 night on Thursday. He’s struck out just once in his last three games. I didn’t expect the Jaguar to be downtrodden for long, but he does have a tendency to be very streaky. There were times when watching him live that he looked like the best player on the field and other times when I wasn’t sure how much baseball experience he’d had, like he was plucked out of the wide receiver corps of a Division I football program.

There are a couple of candidates for a call up in Colorado, but I think Jordan Beck (COL) is the most intriguing among them. He’s been a recurring guest on the Threecap for his exploits in the PCL (I’m not adjusting nightly results for park factor, etc.), the latest of which was a 4-for-5 night with two doubles and a home run on Thursday. He’s struck out just three times in his last six games after running a 28.9% strikeout rate in his first 10 games of the Triple-A season. He has big power that should play well at Coors, but his success is largely dependent on his hit tool holding up against big league pitching.

Phonetically Accurate.

Ben Kudrna (KCR) is the bane of all spell-check systems out there. For those of you asking yourselves how to say his last name out loud without sounding like you don’t know ball, here’s what my Google search yielded:

Not how I would have gone about the phonetic spelling, but alas. In any event, he shoved on Thursday for the Quad Cities River Bandits (High-A). He went five scoreless innings while striking out eight. He was the second-round pick for Kansas City in 2022 and has been solid, if unspectacular, thus far in his professional career. There is back end of the rotation upside if he’s able to put a little more oomph (technical term) into his offerings. He has an 8.7 K/9 to this point in 42 games, which likely isn’t enough whiff for him to be an effective starter at the big league level. He tossed 5.0 scoreless with eight strikeouts on Thursday.

Mason Barnett (KCR) went one round after Kudrna in 2022 but was just as good on Thursday (arguably better). He went 5.0 innings for the Naturals (Double-A) and struck out ten while allowing just one earned on two hits and a walk. The former Auburn righty had a productive year between High-A and Double-A in 2023, pitching to a 3.30 ERA with 137 strikeouts in 114.2 innings. He’s one of the more interesting arms in Kansas City’s system, with a fastball that sits 94 - 96 mph, a curveball with huge vertical break, and a changeup in his repertoire.

Michael Dominguez (TOR) was a 15th rounder in 2019 and is still kicking around in Toronto’s system, which is a fairly impressive endeavor in its own right. He’s always had issues with control, though he’s worked almost exclusively as a starter over five seasons, and has a career 4.7 BB/9. The new season hasn’t been incredibly friendly to him in the early going, either, as he’s carrying a 5.54 ERA with seven walks in 13.0 innings. All of that aside, he was spectacular on Thursday, tossing 75 pitches over 5.0 scoreless innings while striking out nine.

He’s not necessarily banging the door down, but Will Warren (NYY) probably ought to be in line for work in New York some time soon. He has one of my favorite arsenals to watch, featuring a sinker and a sweeper that break in opposite directions and bully hitters. He got blown up in his first start to the tune of five earned runs over 0.1 innings which did considerable damage to his ratios, but has been progressively going longer in outings. Thursday’s start was his best of the year as he went 6.0 scoreless while striking out seven and allowing just three baserunners.

Paul Skenes (PIT) … Yeah, he was good on Thursday. In other news, the sun rose in the East today.

Friday Night Lights.

Time to kick back, relax, and watch the best the minor leagues has to offer. Cheers from Minnesota!

• Clayton Beeter in his third start for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Railriders at 6:35 ET

• Trystan Vrieling in his third start for the Somerset Patriots at 6:35 ET

• Quinn Priester in his fourth start for the Indianapolis Indians at 7:05 ET

• Jackson Jobe in his third start for the Erie Seawolves at 7:05 ET

• Thomas White in his third start for the Jupiter Hammerheads at 7:05 ET

• Cade Povich in his fourth start for the Norfolk Tides at 7:05 ET

• Rhett Lowder in his third start for the Dayton Dragons at 7:05 ET

• Jarlin Susana in his third start for the Fredericksburg Nationals at 7:05 ET

• Brett Wichrowski in his third start for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers at 7:40 ET

• Hurston Waldrep in his third start for the Mississippi Braves at 8:00 ET

• Robby Snelling in his third start for the San Antonio Missions at 8:05 ET

• Marco Raya in his third start for the Wichita Wind Surge at 8:05 ET

• Tekoah Roby in his third start for the Springfield Cardinals at 8:05 ET

• Chase Dollander in his third start for the Spokane Indians at 9:35 ET