Beck's Minor League Threecap: 4/29/24

Beck breaks down three major things you need to know from yesterday's MiLB action.

Good morning gang, we’re back with a fresh week of Threecaps. Complexes start their seasons this week, so we’ll have a fresh batch of small samples to overthink in short order. We’ll be including those games in the Threecap as well as the DSL when they get started.

It’s Monday which means no games, not even a make-up for a rainout, but the upshot is that I’ll have my customary thread recapping the standouts from the week up on my Twitter this evening. Let’s dive into Sunday!

The Boys are Back.

Junior Caminero (TBR) has been a menace in Triple-A. He missed two weeks of action with a minor quad injury and it appears that’s the only thing that could stop him. He’s blasted four home runs and four doubles in 12 games and is still hitting lasers all over the field. He had three batted balls over 100 mph on Sunday: a 106.2 mph home run, a 109.7 mph home run, and a 101.7 mph double. He added a single to finish 4-for-5 with three RBIs and two runs scored. I’m expecting him back in Tampa Bay soon.

The early season hasn’t necessarily been kind to Samuel Basallo (BAL). First it was announced in early February that he had suffered a stress fracture in his right elbow and was unable to throw, then he got off to a 12-for-51 start though his first 12 games that left him with a .235/.231/.314 line while serving as the primary designated hitter for Bowie. He’s found some traction over the last week and pumped two homers on Sunday, raising his season line to .253/.268/.392. I’m not at all worried about him long term and I suspect that having a broken elbow in the recent past, especially in his lead arm, is impacting his ability to do damage at the dish.

Remember Jay Allen II (CIN)? He went 30th overall in 2021 to the Reds, who had very different results from their pair of first rounders that year. They took a falling Matt McLain with the 17th overall pick and he’s become a productive big leaguer despite some missteps in his path to the bigs, meanwhile Allen has had a rough go just about everywhere he’s been while dealing with injury. He played just 31 games last year after missing significant time with a UCL sprain in his thumb and stumbled his way to a .570 OPS and a 34.1% K-rate. The new season has been much, much kinder to him and he kept up his reign of terror on Sunday with a 5-for-6 effort. More importantly – he’s running a 15.9% K-rate at High-A.

Sterlin Thompson (COL) has long been a favorite of mine, but I’ve cooled on him as a difference-maker of late. The appeal was his skill as a hitter eventually playing in Coors field, but questions about his ability to hit for power and play an average second base or left field have dampened my excitement. He’s been playing primarily first base so far this year, which further exacerbates the pressure on his bat. Usually we see huge breakouts in the Rockies’ system happen at Fresno and Spokane before they fizzle a bit at Hartford, and that’s been the story for Thompson. He’s running a .247/.321/.384 line so far after putting together a .762 OPS in 34 games at the level last year. Sunday was his best performance of the year as he collected four hits in five at-bats including a double and a home run.

I’ve been getting close to sounding the alarm on Josue Briceno (DET), but I’m waiting for a true surface-level breakout before doing so publicly (I’m considering the Dynasty Dugout as a cool, exclusive group). It’s coming and I don’t think we’ll have to wait long – his underlying data is much stronger than the surface performance to-date, and it’s important to remember he’s playing in the Florida State league which can already be unforgiving offensively and this year features a much wider ABS zone than any other league (20 inches compared to the 17 inch zone in Triple-A). In any event, he had a stellar weekend for Lakeland, going 3-for-5 on Sunday with a double and a triple in addition to the solo home run he belted on Saturday.

Uh oh, we’re doing Deyvison De Los Santos (ARI) discourse again. Here’s what I wrote about him for his last appearance on the Threecap: 

“Did you forget about Deyvison De Los Santos? Cleveland snapped him up in the Rule 5 draft after he swatted 20 home runs and 16 doubles in 113 games at Double-A, but designated him for assignment after a challenging spring. It’s pretty safe to say he’s enjoying the homecoming in Amarillo, as he’s produced a .371/.418/.677 line through 15 games. It’s been a lot of what you expect from him thus far: big time power manifesting in five home runs and major hit tool concerns in the form of a 26.9% K-rate. He was 4-for-5 with a home run, three RBIs, and three runs scored on Tuesday.”

He’s earned himself a small contingent of fans in the Dynasty Dugout, but I’m trying to remain clear-eyed about his prognosis as a professional. He’s a liability defensively and may ultimately be relegated to a DH-only role. He’s making contact at just a 67% rate this year. I still think it’s a very long shot that he returns the fantasy value folks may have expected just a year or two ago.

Mercedes: EQE, GLC, Maybach, Ernesto.

Look at the horsepower on Ernesto Mercedes (NYM)! He went 4.0 innings on Sunday and struck out 10 of the 16 batters he faced while allowing two earned runs. He led the minor leagues in strikeouts for the day, which frankly was a little out of the norm for him. He’s been a very erratic arm throughout his minor league tenure, which has come in a mix of relief and as a starter. There isn’t much intrigue here as a result of his control problems, but Ernesto Mercedes is too flashy of a name and his performance was too good to leave him off the Threecap today.

Chen-Wei Lin (STL) is officially a two-time Threecapper! The 6-foot-7 fireballer has put together back-to-back dandies as he went 7.0 innings on Sunday, struck out seven, and allowed just three hits without yielding an earned run. He was wonderfully efficient in the outing, requiring just 66 pitches to get through his seven innings, and was mixing really well between his fastball, changeup, and slider. He has my ears perked.

Blade Tidwell (NYM) has been very, very good so far this year. He’s got 21.1 innings under his belt and is appearing on the Threecap for the third time, which should be an indicator of just how strong his performance has been. The biggest deal for me is that he’s showing some control – he’s not painting any Monets, but he’s limiting walks – which had been a real problem for him previously, especially early in 2023. He’s on the right trajectory to be a fixture in the Mets’ rotation should his control gains stick. He’s thrown 62% of his offerings for strikes this year. He went 6.2 innings on Sunday with nine strikeouts to two walks and allowed one earned run.

I haven’t yet written about Andry Lara (WSH) this year, which is a shame. He’s been excellent through 23.2 innings on the year and currently carries a 2.28 ERA with 37 strikeouts. Thomas Nestico’s (@TJStats on Twitter/X) stuff+ model had three of Lara’s offerings as above-average to plus during spring training (cutter, sinker, changeup). He went 6.0 scoreless innings on Sunday, struck out seven, and walked just one. I think it’s fair to start putting him in the conversation for top-5 pitching prospect in the Nats’ system, trailing Cade Cavalli, Jarlin Susana, Mitchell Parker, and maybe Travis Sykora.

Tomorrow, Tomorrow.

Here’s what to watch for on Tuesday, with the games I’ll be trying to watch (or at least skim) italicized:

• Lyon Richardson (3.50 ERA) for the Louisville Bats (CIN) at 12:05 ET

• Paul Skenes (0.53 ERA) for the Indianapolis Indians (PIT) at 6:05 ET

• Bubba Chandler (4.15 ERA) for the Altoona Curve (PIT) at 6:30 ET

• Justin Wrobleski (3.86 ERA) for the Tulsa Drillers (LAD) at 7:00 ET

• Tink Hence (2.41 ERA) for the Springfield Cardinals (STL) at 7:00 ET

• Drew Thorpe (0.50 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 7:00 ET

• Robert Gasser (2.25 ERA) for the Nashville Sounds (MIL) at 7:35 ET

• Noah Cameron (2.66 ERA) for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (KCR) at 8:05 ET