Baltimore Orioles Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
Discover a sleeper, breakout, and bust from the Baltimore Orioles for dynasty fantasy baseball both on the MLB and prospect side.
With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.
While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Baltimore Orioles top prospect list:
Baltimore Orioles Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts
MLB Sleeper: Cedric Mullins, OF, 30, 5’9”/175
It has been three full seasons since Mullins incredible 30 home run/30 stolen base season in 2021. The results the last few seasons have certainly not matched that, but is Mullins really that much different of a player now than he was then? People are down on Mullins, but for fantasy purposes, this is still a very valuable player.
Quad injuries have limited Mullins the last two seasons, but in 2024, he still reached 499 plate appearances. In that sample, he slashed .234/.305/.405 with 18 home runs and 32 stolen bases. Mullins did struggle mightily against left-handed pitching, which means he will likely be on the strong-side of a platoon, but he could still be really good.
Mullins has strong contact skills, having career-best zone-contact and contact rates in 2024. He gets aggressive on pitches in the heart of the zone, and it pays off. While the exit velocities are not great, Mullins still can get to home run power thanks to pulling 49 percent of his fly balls and having a 93 mph average exit velocity on those batted ball types.
A .250 batting average with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases would not shock me in 2025 from Mullins.
MLB Breakouts: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, 25, 6’5”/230
A former 11th overall pick and top pitching prospect in the game, 2025 is the year we finally see Rodriguez fully break out. A lat strain ended Rodriguez’s 2024 season in July and might have kept him from fully breaking out then. Across 116.2 innings, Rodriguez posted a 3.86 ERA with ERA indicators that were lower, and Rodriguez struck out 26.5 percent of hitters and walked just seven percent.
Rodriguez's fastball has strong traits, sitting 96 mph with 16 inches of IVB from a 5’5” release height. Getting 7’3” of extension, Rodriguez creates a very flat VAA of -4.2, which is near elite. The 27 percent whiff rate on the pitch was very strong and has room for a higher whiff rate.
There are three strong secondaries as well in a changeup, slider, and curveball. The changeup sits at 83 mph with very strong traits, and it produced a 35 percent whiff rate and 36 percent chase rate.
The slider and curve are distinct pitches, sitting at 86 and 81 mph, respectively. The curve has a beautiful two-plane break with negative ten inches of IVB and eight inches of sweep. The slider has a late horizontal break, averaging around five inches of sweep.
Rodriguez throws plenty of strikes and has a strong feel for command. Home runs have bitten him at times, but seeing that number drop slightly could lead to a huge breakout in 2025.
MLB Busts: Heston Kjerstad, OF, 26, 6’3”/205
Hear me out; this is not a direct shot at Kjerstad as a player but more for his 2025 playing time outlook. A former 2020 second-overall pick, Kjerstad has had quite a journey through the minors after dealing with myocarditis and missing significant time. A concussion also caused him to miss a decent chunk of 2024. In the minors last season, Kjerstad hit 16 home runs with a .300/.397/.601 slash. In the majors, four home runs and a .253/.351/.394 slash.
There is no denying the power here. Kjertsad posted an average exit velocity north of 90 mph last season at all levels and had a 90th percentile of 104.7 mph. His 100 mph average exit velocity on pulled fly balls is elite, but the concerning thing is that Kjerstad pulled just 18 percent of fly balls.
Kjerstad is aggressive and chases at a high clip, which is the first red flag. The overall contact rate was south of 70 percent. He does make up for it with in-zone contact rates closer to average.
Breaking balls have given Kjerstad fits, though, as have changeups. In the majors, Kjerstad posted a 58 percent contact rate against breaking balls, and in the minors, that number was 62 percent. Changeups had similar whiff issues as Kjerstad had a 57 percent contact rate in the majors and 61 percent in the minors. Against fastballs, though, Kjerstad can mash.
The bigger issue is a path to playing time. The current lineup has Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, and Cedric Mullins all locked into playing time. Ryan O’Hearn can play outfield and is the team’s DH.
Baltimore Orioles Prospect Sleeper: Nestor German, RHP, 23, 6’3”/225, A+
German is an interesting name that popped up for me during the season when doing some data inquiries. Splitting time between Single-A and High-A, the 2023 11th-rounder out of Seattle has posted a 1.59 ERA across 73.2 innings of work. He struck out 90 batteries and walked just 17. German finished the season with a swinging strike rate of 19 percent, an elite mark, while throwing strikes at a substantial rate north of 65 percent.
In college last season, German averaged 92 mph on the fastball, but in 2024, he has worked between 93 and 96, topping out at 97 mph. It is a high-IVB offering, well above average for his release height bucket.
German mixes in a low-to-mid 80s slider and an upper-70s curveball with different movement profiles. The changeup has an interesting shape, playing more as a splitter that sits in the mid-80s. It is a high carry pitch with ten-plus inches of horizontal movement when he throws it. German rounds out his arsenal with an upper-80s cutter.
German has been older for the lower levels of the minors, but I think there is something here. He has a strong 6’3”/225 frame that looks like it has a little projection left on it. We have already seen the fastball tick up, and the secondaries can be solid. Its a deep arsenal with solid strike-throwing and command.
If his success continues as he moves up, German will be much more popular in prospect circles, but right now, the cost is still the ground floor.
Baltimore Orioles Prospect Breakout: Jordan Sanchez, OF, 19, 6’1”/176, DSL
Signing with the Orioles in December of 2023, Sanchez had a solid pro debut in the DSL in 2024. Putting up a slash of .333/.432/.605, Sanchez hit six home runs and had 21 extra-base hits in 38 games.
Looking much taller than his listed 6’1” frame, Sanchez is built highly athletically and still has room to add weight to his frame. His approach is good, and Sanchez makes respectable contact, striking out in 20 percent of plate appearances while walking nearly 15 percent of the time.
The power is tantalizing, though. Sanchez takes some big swings from the left side, creating good bat speed. His exit velocity data was pretty impressive for an 18-year-old, with a 90th percentile already near the MLB average at 103 mph.
Obviously, the hit tool is still in question until we see him stateside and facing better pitching. But Sanchez looks like a future slugger who could move up this system fast.