Atlanta Braves Top Prospects 2024

Atlanta Braves Top-30 Prospects, including AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Ignacio Alvarez, Owen Murphy, Jhancarlos Lara and more!

Welcome to our team prospect rankings. Over the next two months, I will be pumping out team top 30 prospect rankings and evaluations for dynasty baseball. These reports are generated from live looks, film study, and advanced data analysis to bring you in-depth fantasy scouting reports on every player you need to know. Not all 30 player in each writeup will be dynasty relevant, but many will and if you play in a deep league, certainly most of the names will be worth knowing.

Today, we kick off with the NL East, so alphabetically, today is the Atlanta Braves.

Each player has a detailed write-up on each. The top 10 rankings and writeups are free for all, but the top 30 are for paid subs. Get an edge in your dynasty leagues and get in on some of these players first! I was touting AJ Smith-Shawver all offseason last year. Who is next to make that rise in Atlanta’s system? Find out below.

Glossary:

FFG = Future Fantasy Grade - essentially, what is the likely long-term outcome for the prospect?

90th Peak = If the player hits their best-case outcome, what does it look like?

Variance = How risky is this player’s profile, and how likely are they to hit their likely outcome? Low variance is good; high means more risky.

1. AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP, 20, 6’3”/205

Smith-Shawver relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, but for good reason. The pitch sits at 95 mph but can reach the upper 90s with an average of 18 inches of IVB. Its spin efficiency and low VAA make it an excellent pitch that is easily plus. It did not miss bats at the Major League level this year, but considering he is 20 years old and jumped from High-A to the Majors in a matter of a few months, I believe the pitch will continue to improve and be one that gives hitters fits. 

The slider is a wipeout pitch between the mid and upper-80s. It has the potential to be a true strikeout pitch, thanks to the late biting action. The curveball was a new pitch this year that had been shelved early in his career to focus on fastball/slider development, but it was a very good pitch with an impressive movement profile while sitting in the upper 70s. If the changeup becomes consistent with the flashes that it shows, Smith-Shawver will have a true four-pitch mix. 

If you want to see an in-depth scouting report, check out my write-up from earlier this year.

FFG: SP2-SP3 Caliber Arm

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 170 IP/3.30 ERA/190 K

Variance: Medium

2. Hurston Waldrep, RHP, 21, 6’2”/210

The Braves were ecstatic to see Waldrep drop to 24 overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, where they actually got him in an underslot deal. From a pure stuff standpoint, Waldrep stacked up against every pitcher in the draft class and has the arsenal to be one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.

It starts with the fastball for Waldrep, which plays well at the top of the zone, averaging above 95 mph but can get up to 99. It does not get much horizontal movement, but with nearly 16 inches of IVB, it will play, considering the velocity and the secondaries. 

Waldrep’s splitter is nasty and was probably the best individual pitch in the 2023 draft class and one of the best secondaries in the minors. It can range from 85 to 89 mph and completely falls off the table with a ton of separation from the fastball. 

The curve and slider are both distinct pitches and flash signs of being plus, with the slider showing more horizontal movement and the curve being a 12-6 shape. There is about four mph separation between the two.

If the fastball command comes along, the upside here is tremendous. Waldrep has four-plus or better pitches, and the Braves have shown the ability to develop arms. Incredible FYPD buy.

FFG: SP2-SP3 Caliber Arm

90th Peak: 160 IP/3.30 ERA/200 K

Variance: Medium

3. Ignacio Alvarez, SS/3B, 5’11”/190

Alvarez just hits and hits some more. After seeing him live for around ten games this season, I was quite impressed. Alvarez plays a smooth shortstop, though he is likely not to stick there long-term due to his body, but I thought he played an above-average shortstop.

Alvarez's carrying tool is his hit tool, posting an impressive 83 percent contact rate this year, over ten percentage points north of the Minor League average. It might be concerning that Alvarez posted an OBP higher than SLG, but I have seen more power than his seven home runs and .391 slugging percentage suggest. 

The plate discipline is strong and Alvarez walked at a 14 percent clip based on the contact rate, it is no surprise that he only struck out 17 percent of the time. His exit velocities are near a range where I am comfortable saying Alvarez has average game power. He is an underrated dynasty target that I would look to invest in.

FFG: 15-Team MI/CI Bat

90th Peak: .290/15 HR/10 SB

Variance: Low

4. Owen Murphy, RHP, 20, 6’1”/190

The Braves surprised some when they took Murphy 20th overall in 2022, but the former two-way player had shown big stuff on the mound and the ability to hit. Atlanta ultimately decided to develop him on the mound. It was an up-and-down first-full professional season for Murphy, but he flashed upside and the ability to strike batters out, getting up to 12 in a start.

Murphy surprised me a bit when I saw him live, looking a little smaller than expected and the fastball sitting in the low-90s. It plays up to the ride it gets at the zone's top. His curveball can generate plenty of swing and misses sitting in the upper 70s, while also throwing an upper 80s slider on occasion. The changeup development will take Murphy a long way as a starter, but he has a great foundation as a highly athletic starter who repeats well and has strong command.

FFG: Mid-to-Backend SP

90th Peak: 150 IP/3.30 ERA/160 K

Variance: Medium

5. Jhancarlos Lara, RHP, 20, 6’3”/190

Lara might be the biggest pop-up in the Braves system, and his stock skyrocketed, at least in my book. Over Lara’s final ten starts of the season between Single-A and High-A, he posted a 3.02 ERA over 47.2 innings with an insane 71 strikeouts.

Armed with an athletic 6’3” frame and fast arm speed, Lara pumps his fastball up in the zone, consistently sitting 95-98 mph with nice carry. His slider sits in the upper-80s but can get up to 91 mph with a ton of sweeping action. The changeup gets nice fading action and late bite, sitting 88-90. The command and control seemingly improved throughout the year, and his walk rate trended in the right direction. Lara is likely to start next year in High-A, but the move to Double-A Mississippi will be telling about his future outlook.

FFG: Mid-to-Backend SP

90th Peak: 150 IP/3.50 ERA/180 K

Variance: High

6. JR Ritchie, RHP, 20, 6’2”/185

Ricthie’s 2023 season ended after just four starts after a UCL injury that resulted in Tommy John Surgery. In the small sample, Ritchie was incredible, posting a 0.63 FIP in 13.1 innings with a 47.2 percent strikeout rate and just a 5.7 percent walk rate. 

The fastball sits in the mid-90s, but has been up to 98 mph, showing the pitch's potential. His slider sits between 83-85, with nice sweeping action generating most of his whiffs before the injury. Ritchie’s changeup also showed flashes of an above-average offering.
You never know how a pitcher will return from Tommy John, but he will likely be out until at least July or August of 2024 and be brought back slowly. The upside is there for Ritchie to be at the top of this list in a year, however.

FFG: Mid-to-Backend SP

90th Peak: 150 IP/3.50 ERA/180 K

Variance: Medium

7. Jose Perdomo, SS, 17, 5’11'/180

Perdomo was the star of the 2024 international class at a young age and recieved the highest bonus of the 2024 class. A lot changes over the time a player makes a verbal agreement with the team and when they actually sign and Perdomo has seen significant changes with his body.

He has bulked up, but has gotten stiff in some ways. Perdomo has still made it work and has not lost his polished hit tool. The bat speed may be lagging behind some, but Perdomo’s bat path leads to consistent solid contact.

Once we see Perdomo in-game action this summer, we should have a better feel about his potential hit-plus power combo. He is not likely to be a big contributor on the base paths and may need to move to third base, but Perdomo is still a player to be excited about. The Braves handed Perdomo a $5 million bonus.

FFG: Everyday SS

90th Peak: .280/20 HR/5 SB

Variance: High

8. David McCabe, CI, 23, 6’3”/230

McCabe might be the most underrated hitter in this system, standing at 6’3”/230 lb, but also moving well as a strong athlete. Braves-hitting prospects will likely always be overlooked due to every MILB park in their system being incredibly pitcher-friendly. For this reason, I think some will overlook McCabe because a “power-hitting prospect” should hit more than 17 home runs across 524 plate appearances. 

McCabe posts strong hard-hit numbers and makes very good contact, posting an 80 percent contact rate this season and saw the number jump to 84 percent in the second half. He also stole ten bases, showing some decent athleticism for his size. McCabe is still a great player to invest in for dynasty. 

FFG: 15-Team Corner Infield Bat

90th Peak: .260/25 HR/5 SB

Variance: Medium

9. Drake Baldwin, C, 22, 6’0”/210

A lot of what was said about David McCabe can be repeated here. Baldwin’s overall numbers took a bit of a hit from playing the majority of his games this year in Rome, which is a very hitter-friendly environment. In his time there, he hit 14 home runs while slashing .260/.385/.466 and eventually made his way to Triple-A by season’s end. Over the second half of the season(193 plate appearances), Baldwin slashed .340/.446/.556 with a 15% walk rate and a 17% strikeout rate. He had 20 extra-base hits over that span.

Baldwin has a strong core and generates fast bat speed while posting respectable exit velocities. He shows good plate discipline and doesn’t chase often, while also posting a 78% contact rate in the second half of the season(75% full season) which is quite impressive.

Baldwin is an underrated dynasty-catching asset who could fly under the radar for a while but has the potential to be in Atlanta by late 2024/early 2025. 

FFG: Startable catcher in 20-team leagues

90th Peak: .270/20 HR/3 SB

Variance: Medium

10. Darius Vines, RHP, 25, 6’1”/190

Vines made his MLB debut and is now pitching in the Arizona Fall League. He made his MLB debut in Coors Field where he looked sharp, allowing on two runs in six innings, earning his first career win. 

The fastball won’t blow anyone away, sitting around 90 mph, but it does play up due to spin efficiency and nearly 17 inches of IVB on average. Vines’ bread and butter pitch is his changeup which sits in the low-80s but has great depth and fade. He also throws a distinct cutter and slider. Vines is likely a back-end starting pitcher or a swing-man type, but the floor is pretty high.

FFG: Backend SP/Spot Starter

90th Peak: 120 IP/3.75 ERA/110 K

Variance: Low

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