Arizona Fall League Recap: October 24, 2024
Chris breaks down everything you need to know from Wednesday's AFL action.
Good morning! The countdown is on. Just a few days until I board my flight to Phoenix for the fall league. Until then we will keep grinding on the video and data to churn out these daily reports.
Wednesday featured some big time performances from some pitchers and hitters. Let’s break it down!
Arizona Fall League Recap: 10/24/24
Mesa (Chris)
Tre’ Morgan, 1B, TB, 22
Morgan did on Wednesday what he has done all year; he just hits. In five trips to the plate, Morgan reached base safely four times including three hits, two of which were doubles. Facing off against college teammate Grant Taylor, Morgan won the first battle, smacking a double to the opposite field. The next time up, Taylor got Morgan swinging which was the only time he did not reach base.
Morgan has not been flashy, putting up big exit velocities or towering home runs this fall, but he has shown his continued impressive approach and the ability to hit the ball to all fields.
Moises Ballesteros, C, CHC, 20
Mo Baller was at it again, collecting two hits, including his third AFL home run. It was a no-doubt shot to right-center field. While there was no statcast, I can tell you it was hit hard. Ballesteros now trails Josue Briceño and Colt Emerson for the AFL lead in hits. He has walked as often as he has struck out. His impressive performance on the plate has continued his entire professional career. The biggest question in my mind is where he fits in the field?
Scottsdale (Chris)
Kendry Rojas, LHP, TOR, 21
Rojas is one of my favorite pitching prospects in the fall league and after a rough first two starts, Rojas got on track with three scoreless innings on Wednesday. He punched out two batters and allowed two hits and walks a piece. His control was inconsistent at times, landing just 57 percent of his pitches for strikes, but there is a lot to like.
After missing a chunk of the year with a shoulder injury, he returned to High-A from his rehab assignment on July 9 was rather dominant. In 62.2 innings, Rojas posted a 2.59 ERA with 69 strikeouts and just 14 walks.
Rojas saw a big velocity tick up this year, especially before the injury. He went from sitting 92-93 mph to consistently to sitting 94-96 and topping out at 97. Rojas has filled out his frame and added weight since last season, so it is no surprise to see him with added velocity.
In addition to the fastball, Rojas has a devastating changeup with late drop and fade, generating plenty of whiffs. The slider is more of a gyro shape in the mid-80s, and Rojas even added an upper-80s cutter this year.
Drew Gilbert, OF, NYM, 24
2025 feels like a huge season for Gilbert and how he factors into the Mets’ future plans. Gilbert strained his hamstring on April 6 and missed over three months of action. Upon return, Gilbert showed struggles, slashing just .215/.313/.393 in Triple-A, but he did hit ten home runs with eight doubles in 56 games. Being on the smaller side, power has always been a question, but Gilbert lifts the ball often and regularly gets to the pull side.
The exit velocity data was underwhelming as Gilbert posted just an 85 mph average exit velocity and a 101 mph 90th percentile. The contact data was solid, though, as he made contact on 74 percent of swings and 84 percent of swings in the zone. Gilbert chased at a better-than-average 26 percent rate, which helped lead to an 11 percent walk rate.
He had the biggest game of the fall so far, mashing two home runs and driving in four runs while reaching base a third and fourth time with a single and walk. Gilbert is on the smaller side, but his ability to lift and pull the ball could allow him to be an 18-20 home run bat.
Surprise (Chris)
Max Acosta, SS, TEX, 21
Acosta continues to look like a shining star in the fall league and has been one of the best hitters on the Surprise team. He was the only player on the team on Wednesday to have two hits and the only one to collect an extra-base hit, which Acosta had two of. He also reached base a third time via walk to push his slash to .297/.333/.514.
If you have stuck with Acosta since he signed for $1.65 million back in 2019, then props to you. It has been a bumpy road over the years, but in 2024, we saw a really solid performance from a 21-year-old who spent the season in Double-A. Acosta slashed a smooth .288/.353/.425 with eight home runs and 34 extra-base hits in 104 games. He swiped 26 bases for the second straight year.
Salt River (Chris)
Caleb Durbin, INF, NYY, 24
It was a ho-hum day for Caleb Durbin on Wednesday as he reached base four times, including two singles, and walked a piece. He continues to make contact at absurd rates, having an 87 percent overall mark in the AFL with a near 90 percent in-zone contact rate. Durbin has chased just 23 percent of pitches out of the zone. The crazy thing is that these numbers are not surprising at all, as Durbin has always had a strong contact profile.
Entering his Rule 5 year, if the Yankees don’t protect him, I would not be shocked to see Durbin land with a team that could use him as a bench/utility bat.
Kala’i Rosario, OF, MIN, 22
Rosario paced the Rafters on Wednesday, leading the team with three hits, all singles. It was a rare day for Rosario though in the since that he did not have any scorched baseballs. The three hits had exit velocities of 82.6, 94.3, and 97.2 mph. After a season where Rosario missed nearly half the year, he looks healthy and like a much better hitter than we have previously seen.
Even with the lower exit velocity day, Rosario still has an average of 94.5 mph on 28 balls in play and has a 110.6 90th percentile. There is no denying the power here. Just how much contact will he make?
Peoria (Chris)
Juan Baez, 2B, MIL, 19
I just finished my scouting report on Baez in the Brewers Top Prospects Report, and questioned how much power he would get to. Being on the smaller side, Baez hit just one home run this season and has eight total professional home runs to date. He mashed his second AFL home run on Wednesday as he reached base four times, pushing his slash to .519/.594/.889.
The impressive contact skills from the regular season have carried over to the AFL. Monday was the first time that he has swung and missed at a pitch in the zone so far. The overall contact rate sits near 87 percent.
Seeing Baez this year in person, I came away impressed by his bat to ball skills and the ability to control the barrel throughout the zone. Being on the smaller side, power likely won’t be a part of Baez game. The good news is, he sprays the ball to all fields well, having an impressive line drive rate.
David McCabe, CI, ATL, 24
After missing the majority of the 2024 regular season, McCabe got off to quite the slow start in the AFL. He has picked things up as of recent and on Wednesday he collected two hits, including a double. For a bigger hitter who looks like he would be a pure power bat, McCabe has shown respectable contact skills over the years. He likely will have a hard time fitting into the Braves corner infield anytime soon, but I’m sure Atlanta hopes he rebuilds some value after a lost 2024 season.
Glendale (Chris)
Grant Taylor, RHP, CHW, 22
Grant Taylor took the hill for the third time this fall, and I encourage you not to worry about his statistical surface numbers. Tossing 2.2 innings, Taylor allowed three hits and two earned runs while walking two and striking out four. He worked his fastball up to 99 mph but sat around 97 mph with above-average IVB at 16 inches and a flat -5 VAA. From a 5’8” release height, the IVB is strong, and the fastball is going to play up even more, given his 7’3” of extension.
The secondaries looked strong as Taylor mixed a 90 mph cutter, an 83 mph curveball, and an 86 mph slider and changeup. Taylor has a deep arsenal and solid command, as well. He has some of the best stuff in Arizona.
Colson Montgomery, SS/3B, CHW, 22
Montgomery continues to look his best in Arizona, a place he thrived in 2023, winning the Fall Stars Game MVP award. Coming off a frustrating season in which Montgomery dealt with a nagging injury that could have affected him, he now looks like one of the best hitters in the fall league.
On Wednesday, he smoked a home run that he got every bit of to the pull-side for his second AFL home run. His slash now sits at a strong .321/.535/.607, with twice as many walks as strikeouts.
Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF, PHI, 23
Rincones is a player that I have loved more than most since I saw him last year in the AFL. He has power, sneaky speed, and a respectable feel to hit. The numbers so far have not been great in the AFL this time around, but he is picking things up. He smacked his second home run of the fall in a two-hit performance in his second straight multi-hit game.
I still believe Rincones is an underrated fantasy asset and one that could contribute to a good Phillies team soon.