Arizona Fall League Recap: October 14, 2024
Beck breaks down everything you need to know from the Arizona Fall Leauge.
It was a sad day that we only had one game to cover on Sunday, but it was a good one as Mesa defeated Surprise 10-3. Just one game of action coming at you today as well as Glendale takes on Peoria. Jose Acuna(CIN) will take the mound to face off against Gabe Mosser(SD)
Both teams that played Sunday were under Beck’s coverage, so today’s report is all him. Enjoy!
Mesa (Beck)
Jonathon Long, 1B, CHC, 22
This is Long’s second appearance on the rundown, this time for a 2-for-5 performance that included a walk and three RBIs. He had a pretty stellar regular season ending with a 46-game stint at Double-A and ultimately finished with 17 home runs, a near-.400 OBP, and an .851 OPS – though that number was closer to 1.000 (.983) with Tennessee. I’m expecting him to play rather well in the AFL given his experience and offensive prowess, but he’ll need to continue that before becoming fantasy relevant as a right-handed first baseman. His two hits left the bat at 110.9 and 74.3 mph, respectively, and he scalded a few others that just didn’t fall in.
Moises Ballesteros, C, CHC, 20
Ballesteros registered three batted balls over 100 mph on Sunday: a 110.8 mph home run, a 101.3 mph single, and a 100.8 mph groundout. He was smoking baseballs all over the yard and now finds himself third in OPS among hitters with 15 at-bats or more (which is admittedly a small population). As such he’s showing up a lot in these rundowns and the high points are that he’s likely to see time with the big league club early in 2025, he has above-average marks for EV90 (104.5 mph) and zone contact (86.0%), and he has issues with plate discipline (35.1%).
David Mershon, 2B, LAA, 21
New name alert! Mershon was a standout on paper with Mississippi State (.347/.454/.500 in his platform year), but not so much in a literal sense. He’s listed at 5-foot-7, 175 pounds, and appears to do in-game damage commensurate with his stature (eight home runs in 383 college PAs). He went straight to Double-A this year for his first taste of professional ball and it looks like he may have been better off reporting to High-A as he slashed .254/.326/.298 and did not record a home run over 29 games. There’s not a ton to dream on here – there often isn’t when your slugging percentage with wood begins with a two – but I like to root for these kinds of guys. He was 2-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base on Sunday.
Luis Rujano, RHP, CHC, 21
Rujano had one of the best outings of the AFL thus far on Sunday as he tossed 3.0 near-perfect innings and struck out five batters. He was a thirteenth rounder in 2022 out of a Florida high school and has since thrown 106.0 cumulative innings in Single-A across two years in a hybrid starting / relief role. His numbers don’t jump off the page; he’s struck out just 23.1% of batsmen and walked 12.3%, but he has a healthy array of offerings to get guys out. He showcased six distinct pitches yesterday including three variations of fastball (four-seam, sinker, cutter), two breaking balls (slider, curveball), and a changeup, and registered a 42% whiff rate in the process. I’m not sure how much there is here for fantasy purposes, but it’s nice to see a 21-year-old with a full arsenal to deploy across multiple velocity bands.
Sammy Natera Jr., LHP, LAA, 24
Natera is a 24-year-old lefty with a longer track record of starting than Rujano but may be likelier to transition to the bullpen in the future. They’ve had similar issues with control (Natera’s minor league walk rate is 11.6% vs. Rujano’s 12.3%), but Natera only used three pitches in his two-inning outing on Sunday: a sinker at 96-98 mph, a slider at 81-83 mph, and a four-seamer at 96-97 mph. He didn’t get as much whiff but has a longer track record of punchout potential (career 31.1% K-rate). He has a solid foundation to work from and adding an offspeed pitch could help him get righties out more regularly. You never know when a pitcher is going to take off, and I’m not saying he will, but a 6-foot-4 lefty who throws two fastballs in the upper 90’s isn’t the worst gamble out there.
Surprise (Beck)
Creed Willems, C/1B, BAL, 21
Say hello to yesterday’s exit velocity king. He’s back on the rundown with a single and a double in yesterday’s contest, but that really undersells the kind of damage he was doing. He had two batted ball events over 110 mph: the aforementioned single (112.5 mph) and double (114.3). Power hasn’t really been a question for him (he’s coming off of back-to-back years with exactly 17 home runs), but doubts about athleticism and future defensive home are glaring. He moves pretty well for his size, I have to admit, but he’s a poor defender and it’s unclear where he’ll play if it doesn’t work behind the dish.
Jake Cunningham, OF, BAL, 22
Jake Cunningham? More like Rake Cunningham! He only had one hit in yesterday’s game but it was a big solo shot that left the bat at 110.5 mph. He also had BBE of 109.0 and 113.2 mph, which puts him in real competition for the title I just bestowed upon Creed Willems. He certainly looks much more like someone built to do damage (listed at 6-foot-3, 205 lbs), but hasn’t had the in-game track record as a pro yet. I’m pretty intrigued seeing the ball jump off of his bat, especially when you consider he added 29 stolen bases in 92 games during the regular season.