Arizona Fall League Recap: October 13, 2024
Chris and Beck break down everything you need to know from the Arizona Fall League action.
Happy Sunday! Sadly, there is just one Arizona Fall League game on the docket today and only one on Monday. So enjoy the write-up today on all six teams, as we won’t have that back until Wednesday.
Andrew Painter returned, Josue Briceño dropped three bombs, and we had several big performances. Enjoy!
Arizona Fall League Breakdown: 10/13/24
Mesa (Beck)
Xavier Isaac, 1B, TB, 20
Isaac is leading the AFL in strikeouts but simultaneously inside the top-10 in slugging and carrying an OBP north of .400. I’m a little concerned – the power has not been in question, ever – and his contact rates slipped over the course of the year, perhaps as a more noticeable symptom of a previous injury. He had a double and a home run in Saturday’s game while adding a walk and a strikeout.
Daniel Susac, C, OAK, 23
The former first-rounder hasn’t hit as much over his first two years as a pro as many had hoped he would. He finished 2023 with a .301 average but just eight home runs over 466 plate appearances, and all of his surface numbers slipped in 2024 as he played the entirety of the season in Double-A. For now his ceiling seems pretty capped – despite his large frame (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) he isn’t producing exit velocities commensurate with his size. As a catcher he’ll be subject to off days or the occasional appearance at first base or DH, and it doesn’t look like he has the juice for the offensive requirements of those roles at present. He managed to get ahold of one and send it out in a 1-for-2 night that included a walk.
Scottsdale (Beck)
Josue Briceño, C/1B, DET, 20
Briceño powered Scottsdale to a 10-2 win over Glendale on Saturday with the first three-homer game in the AFL since 2015. It’s a shame there isn’t any statcast data on them, but I can tell you they weren’t cheap – including the one he hit off of Andrew Painter. I was on Briceño early this year, highlighting him as my prospect breakout pick in the Tigers’ system in my team preview after getting eyes on him in the Spring Breakout game, but he missed a lot of time with injury and ultimately had a fine 40-game sample that fell short of expectation on paper. The good news is that his underlying data is wicked impressive for a 19-year-old; he carried a 104.3 mph EV90 despite playing around injury, an 88.9% zone contact rate, and a 23.5% chase rate, all of which are far better than his surface line suggests.
Charlie Szykowny, 3B, SF, 24
I didn’t know Chuck Szykowny before this blurb, and I am leaving it without a clear understanding of the pronunciation of his last name. He was a ninth-rounder in 2023 out of the University of Illinois-Chicago and had a very productive platform year that included 16 long balls and a slugging percentage north of .650, albeit in the Missouri Valley Conference. He’s got a strong build at 6-foot-4, 225 lbs, but even with natural heft, the translation from aluminum to wood seemed to hit him particularly hard. He managed just six homers in 94 games in his pro debut, all of which came in San Jose as he went homerless in 40 games after his promotion to High-A. He hit his first four-bagger of the AFL season in a 1-for-4 game on Saturday.
Sammy Siani, OF, PIT, 23
Look, just because Scottsdale tallied ten runs doesn’t mean I’m spoiled for choice on who to write about. This is Siani’s first appearance (at least when I’ve covered Scottsdale) and it’s because he was one of just two hitters in the lineup with more than one base knock. He’s a former first-rounder (technically – he went 37th overall in 2019) and has thus far only made his way to Double-A. At 5-foot-10, 195 pounds, he’s more of a slap-and-dash guy than anything else and strikes out too often to stand out offensively. He finished 2-for-4 with a single and a double on Saturday.
Bryce Eldridge, 1B, SF, 19
I’m watching Eldridge’s strikeout rate pretty carefully this fall. He’s trailing just Xavier Isaac and Max Acosta in the K column through four games with seven in 17 plate appearances (41.2%) and currently owns a measly .188/.278/.250 slash. It’s only a handful of games and doesn’t mean a whole lot, but the pitching out here isn’t great, and his contact rates have been fringy. Even that’s a little too harsh – he doesn’t have to run great contact rates to be massively productive – but there is always the risk his profile craters against advanced pitching. In his defense, one of the two strikeouts he had on Saturday was against a healthy Andrew Painter.
Surprise (Beck)
Creed Willems, C/1B, BAL, 21
It was a tough day for Surprise as they dropped Saturday’s game 14-1, accumulated just eight hits, and committed two errors. They had no extra-base hits in the contest, so for lack of real standouts I’m embracing the 2-for-4 performance from Creed Willems with arms wide open. He’s coming off of a 2024 campaign that saw him hit 17 home runs and 21 doubles over 98 games, ultimately wrapping his season with Double-A. He’s certainly not an athlete in the traditional sense – he measures in at 5-foot-11 and 225 pounds – but he has had stretches where he is tremendously productive. I’m not particularly interested in his profile for fantasy much to Nate’s disdain.
Cody Freeman, 3B, TEX, 23
Freeman was a prep fourth-rounder in 2019 who has stayed in the Rangers’ system and played the entirety of this year at Double-A. He’s rather undersized at just 5-foot-9, 180 pounds, and his slash line looks like what you might expect from a guy of his stature. He doesn’t strike out much, doesn’t walk much, and doesn’t homer much, which makes for a pretty flat shape of production. He’s got a nice line through four games (.364/.533/.455), but it looks like a mirage for now. He went 2-for-4 with two strikeouts yesterday.
Salt River (Chris)
Michael Prosecky, LHP, COL, 23
After a strong first start to the AFL, Prosecky’s second was equally as good. He tossed two scoreless innings with three strikeouts and two hits allowed.
Landing 21 of his 29 pitches for strikes, Prosecky located his entire arsenal exceptionally well and did not issue a walk. In both outings this fall, Prosecky has done a good job keeping the fastball up, and his misses have been above the zone rather than over the heart of the plate. The fastball averaged 93 mph, but it had good carry through the zone with decent horizontal movement from the left side.
Prosecky threw a mid-80s changeup with nice fading action and paired it with a mid-to-upper 70s curveball with nice depth and some sweep. He won’t overpower you, but if the pitchability is there, Prosecky has been quite good so far this fall.
Kristian Robinson, OF, ARI, 23
If we are honest, I have pretty much written off Robinson as a prospect at this point. The soon-to-be-24-year-old was once a top prospect, but legal trouble caused him to miss significant time. The tools took a step back this year, and Robinson made contact on less than 60 percent of pitches he swung at, one of the worst marks in baseball.
Robinson is looking to prove me wrong. He is off to a good start in the AFL and blasted his first fall home runs while driving in four runs. On the flip side, he struck out three times in five trips to the plate. The home run left the bat at 106 mph, and Robinson added an additional single at 83.3 mph. Even if the tools have taken a step back, there is still a lot to like from a power standpoint. Contact will be quite telling about his future.
Garrett Martin, OF, NYY, 24
Martin continues to look like one of the better hitters in the fall league as he collected three more hits, including a home run. The power is undeniable as he mashed his home run at 109 mph, which traveled 453 feet, and a double that he smoked at 112, which had an estimated distance of 405 feet.
Wanna talk about electric bat speed? Martin has it. The double had a bat speed of 83 mph, and two other swings had a swing speed north of 80 mph. For reference, Giancarlo Stanton led MLB with an average swing speed of 81.3 mph. The next highest was 78.6 mph.
This is what I wrote about him in my AFL underrated hitter column:
Martin might be the single most underrated player in the fall league. He is so underrated that Fantrax has him on Baltimore, a team that drafted him way back in 2018 and whom he did not sign with.
It was quite a path for Martin to sign with the Yankees, first beginning his collegiate career at McLennan Community College, where he put up 20 home runs in 63 games in 2021. He then transferred to Oklahoma State, where he played sparingly in 2022 before eventually landing at Austin Peay in 2023. There, Martin put up gaudy exit velocities, checking in with a 109.3 90th percentile and a 114 max.
Martin signed with the Yankees as a free agent after the 2023 draft, and injuries have caused him to miss time. This year, in 87 games with High-A Hudson Valley, Martin mashed 12 home runs and had 32 extra-base hits. The slash line of .216/.326/.422 leaves a little to be desired, as Martin struck out 28 percent of the time.
One thing is certain: Martin can mash, having one of the highest 90th-percentile exit velocities in the Yankees organization this year. He could be the fall league home run leader and I would not be shocked.
Caleb Durbin, INF, NYY, 24
Leading off the Rafters, Durbin reached base three times which included a single, double, and walk. While he didn’t smoke any balls he consistently hit the ball hard, having three of his four batted balls north of 90 mph. The single left the bat at 85.3 mph.
Missing time this year with injury, Durbin spent most of his 406 plate appearances in Triple-A, posting a .275/.388/.451 slash. Being on the smaller side, Durbin spent hit for big power, having ten home runs, but he added 25 doubles and two triples. He also is a major impact on the base paths, swiping 31 bags in 35 attempts.
Being on the cusp of his MLB debut, Durbin could be a very solid utility bat who gets on base at a high clip and is hard to get out.
Peoria (Chris)
Ryan Birchard, RHP, MIL, 21
Birchard had a strong debut in Arizona, tossing three scoreless innings with three strikeouts. He allowed just one hit but walked three batters while landing just 50 percent of his pitches for strikes. The 2023 fifth-rounder recently turned 21 and is coming off an injury-riddled season that saw him pitch just 18 innings in full-season ball. After a strong first start of the season in which Birchard struck out six across four scoreless innings with two walks, he was never the same upon return.
Birchard has a strong arsenal. His fastball, which reaches 98, sits in the mid-90s. He throws two variations of a breaking ball: a slider in the mid-80s and a curveball in the upper-70s. His changeup and command are still work in progress. If he can throw more strikes, there is a chance Birchard could be a starter. Otherwise, he will likely wind up in the bullpen.
Kemp Alderman, OF, MIA, 22
Tell me if you have heard this before, Alderman homered.. Again. In his fourth Arizona Fall League game, Alderman hit his fifth home run. Josue Briceño has three and is in second place for home runs after his three-home run game on Saturday. Alderman already has a 117 mph home run, the hardest-hit ball of the AFL and the hardest of Alderman’s pro career. We saw him pop a 118 with metal in college, but 116.8 with wood is highly impressive.
During the regular season, Alderman slashed .242/.306/.391 with eight home runs in 77 games. The contact skills are what I am watching most, we knew Alderman had light tower power coming into the AFL. It was more of a question could he cut down his chase and make more contact. So far, so good.
Leo De Vries, SS, SD, 18
De Vries turned 18 years old on Friday, and after spending the year as a 17-year-old in Single-A, he worked his way up prospect rankings. During the regular season, De Vries slashed .237/.361/.441 with 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 360 plate appearances. It is nothing to write home about, but the underlying data is highly impressive. Over De Vries’s final 32 games, he mashed ten home runs and slashed .279/.401/.605.
The underlying data was quite strong for a 17 year old. Having a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 102 mph with an air percentage of 60 percent. Factor in that he posted a solid launch angle on hard-hit balls and you wind up with an impressive barrel rate and .408 xwOBAcon, which ranked near the top of all Minor Leaguers.
Sure, De Vries has not gotten off to a strong start in the AFL, but again, he just turned 17 years old. He smoked a double on Saturday, but honestly, I could care less about how De Vries performs in Arizona. It’s all the little things im looking for.
Glendale (Chris)
Andrew Painter, RHP, PHI, 20
The long-awaited return of Painter to the mound happened. After not pitching in-game action since March 1, 2023, we got to see Andrew Painter toe the rubber. While the box score might not stand out, Painter showed a lot of good. He tossed two innings, allowing two runs, including a home run to Josue Briceno. Painter did strikeout two batters and walked one.
Painter touched 100 mph multiple times which was an encouraging sign and his slider reached 90 mph multiple times. The chaneup sat in the upper 80s, and while the stuff aws strong, the command struggled. This is not unusual though for someone returning from Tommy John. At the end of the day there were a lot of positives to take away from Painter’s first outing back on the mound.
Jordan Dissin, C, PHI, 22
Glendale mustered just four hits on the day, and two came from the Desert Dogs catcher, Jordan Dissin. While it was just two singles, Dissin also reached base a third time via walk.
Spending the majority of the 2024 season in High-A, Disin finished out in Double-A, posting a combined slash line of .213/.342/.340 with nine home runs in 325 plate appearances. Dissin has strong OBP skills and made contact on over 70 percent of pitches that he saw. The 2022 12th-rounder has gotten off to a strong start to his 2024 AFL season.
Thomas Saggese, 2B, STL, 22
Saggese was the other long bright spot on Glendale’s offense. He hit his first AFL home run, a two run shot which were the only runs that the Desert Dogs put on the board. Saggese also reached base a second time via walk.
The 2024 regular season saw Saggese spend the majority of the year in Triple-A before debuting in the majors late in the year. In Triple-A, he slashed .253/.313/.438 with 20 home runs and nine stolen bases. On Thursday, Saggese smoked a ball 111 mph, which was a new season high, a massive jump from his 108.2 mph max exit velocity in the regular season.