Arizona Fall League Recap: October 10, 2024
Chris and Beck break down everything you need to know from the Arizona Fall League action.
Ah, the first full day of action. After just one game on Monday and two on Tuesday, we got a full slate of action. With that comes more action and keeping up on what you need to know. Beck and I have you covered with everything that happened from performances to statcast data; it is all here.
Arizona Fall League Breakdown: 10/10/24
Mesa (Beck)
Tre’ Morgan, 1B/OF, TB, 22
Morgan is a weird profile – a contact-oriented defensive standout at first base – but it worked all year long. He pushed his way to Double-A, put up a .324/.408/.483 line, and looks like he could be a solid asset in OBP formats that will tack on a few more stolen bases than you might otherwise expect from a first baseman. Word is that he’s playing outfield exclusively this fall which isn’t surprising given the emphasis on positional versatility in Tampa. He had perhaps the best night of any AFLer on Wednesday by going 4-for-6 with a double, a triple, and five runs scored in a 19-3 blowout over Scottsdale.
Jonathon Long, 1B, CHC, 22
I wasn’t familiar with Jonathon Long before seeing his line in the box score today. He enjoyed a nice three-year career at Long Beach State before being selected by the Cubs in the 9th round of the 2023 draft and has since put together two very productive seasons (.973 OPS in 2023 across Rookie Ball and Single-A, .851 OPS in 2024 across High-A and Double-A). His stint with Tennessee to close the year was exceptionally strong as he hit seven home runs and walked more than he struck out while posting a .340/.455/.528 line over 46 games. He’s always had pop in the bat, and I’m pretty intrigued after reviewing his Double-A line, but this is a R/R first baseman and he’s got a lot of proving to do before I fall down the Matt Mervis well. He was 3-for-6 with a home run, a double, and five RBIs (many of which were Tre Morgan) on Wednesday.
Moises Ballesteros, C, CHC, 20
Ballesteros is one of the most anticipated prospects in this year’s crop, and he could play a large role as a rotational catcher / DH for the Cubs in 2025. His body has slimmed from rotund to just big, and he put up a great year that culminated in a .281/.340/.454 line with ten home runs in 68 games at Triple-A. I was slow to move on him largely because of his frame and the pressure there is / will be on his bat should he need to play first base or regularly serve as the DH, but I’ve come around a bit on his profile. He chases quite a bit (35.1%) but makes plenty of contact in the zone (86.0%) and hits the ball reasonably hard (104.5 mph EV90) often in the air (59% LD + FB rate). The operation is a bit fragile because of the chase rates – those often get worse at the big league level – but the rest is sound particularly so for a catcher. He was 2-for-6 with two runs scored and two RBIs yesterday.
Henry Bolte, OF, OAK, 21
Don’t make a lightning joke, don’t make a lightning joke… Henry Bolted to the AFL after a productive but divisive year that saw him slug 15 home runs, steal 46 bases (58 attempts), and strike out in 34.7% of all plate appearances en route to a .267/.368/.466 line. The K-rate at present is untenable and worsened at Double-A against more advanced competition, though there is a clear and obvious upside should he curb his propensity to strike out. He’s unrefined on the basepaths, too, and while he stole 46 bases, he was caught 12 times, and there will be fewer opportunities to run if his success rate worsens as he climbs (which is likely). He was 2-for-5 with a home run, a stolen base, and two strikeouts in a very Henry Bolte performance.
Scottsdale (Beck)
Adrian Pinto, INF, TOR, 22
Pinto made his way to Toronto by way of trade in the Randal Grichuk deal and has since missed significant portions of 2023 and 2024. He played just 28 games split between the FCL, Single-A, and High-A, and while he was on the field the results were pretty good. He managed a .330/.378/.573 slash and four home runs in that time, which is frankly four more than I expect from a guy who stands 5-foot-6, 156 pounds, but his shining tool is his wheels. He swiped 41 bases in the DSL in 2021 but barely ran at all in his return from a rib injury this year. The thievery could return this fall as run defenses are spectacularly poor in the AFL. He went 2-for-4 with a run scored on Wednesday.
Jett Williams, MI, NYM, 20
Jett was another natural candidate for the AFL given he played just 33 games surrounding wrist surgery in July. The performance wasn’t great, especially in his return from going under the knife, but both surgery and wrists are tricky and some rust is entirely expected. He’s looking to knock the cobwebs loose in Phoenix but is so far just 2-for-9 with a single, a double, and three strikeouts. My stance on him hasn’t changed much, but a nice few weeks in Arizona could be just what he needs to regain some of his fantasy prospect stock.
Bryce Eldridge, 1B, SF, 19
It’s a two-man race between Bryce Eldridge and Leo De Vries for the most interesting prospect in this year’s AFL crop. The latter has yet to log an appearance, while the former has a hit in each of his first two games, including a run-scoring double on Wednesday. The question with a guy as large and powerful as Eldridge is how much contact they’ll make, and as his contact rates go, so does his production. They fluctuated between 60 and 70 percent as the season wore on, and I’d love to see them more consistently above 70, though he does enough damage on contact for it not to matter as much as other profiles. There are diminishing returns on both contact and power, though it’s much more common for those to be realized on the contact front.
Surprise (Beck)
Alejandro Osuna, OF, TEX, 22
Surprise scraped across just three runs against Peoria, but Osuna was a lone bright spot. He reached base four times (two singles, two walks) and could have been the difference in the game if he were not stranded all four times. He featured in Chris’s AFL hitters to watch article after putting together a .292/.362/.507 line and climbing to Double-A during the regular season, and he’s one I’m keeping a close eye on, too. His game is bigger than the sum of its parts – he leaves everything on the field and brings the kind of spark traditional scouts rave about.
Carter Jensen, C, KC, 21
Prep catchers are a precarious investment because they’re challenged with developing at a difficult and nuanced position that carries numerous responsibilities (pitch calling, framing, etc.) in addition to developing as a hitter. Jensen garnered some early attention in 2024 by opening the season strong at High-A (10 home runs in 84 games, .821 OPS) and eventually pushed to Double-A where he found a little more resistance driven primarily by much poorer BABIP luck. He’s one of the more underrated players presently in the minors – he hits the ball hard, has great plate discipline, and is pretty solid behind the plate. He went 1-for-3 with a pair of walks on Wednesday.
Milan Tolentino, SS, CLE, 22
Tolentino is the second player on today’s rundown that I was unfamiliar with (one of the reasons I love the AFL), though I am less enthusiastic about what I found for him than I was for Jonathan Long. His offensive profile has always been more tenuous than evaluations of his glove, and that’s largely borne true throughout his pro career. He managed a .680 OPS in 2023 (High-A and Double-A) and .683 in 2024 (Double-A) with just nine home runs across 864 plate appearances in that span. He was 1-for-5 with two stolen bases against Peoria on Wednesday.
Salt River (Chris)
Yu-Min Lin, LHP, ARI, 21
Lin made his AFL debut, tossing three scoreless innings with three strikeouts and hits allowed a piece. He tossed 27 strikes and only needed 41 pitches to get through his three innings of work. He missed just four bats for a 22 percent whiff rate, though.
The encouraging takeaway for me was that Lin averaged 91 mph on his fastball. Sure, it was a shorter outing, but if he can continue to live in that range, it is much more encouraging than where he has previously sat. The fastball shape is not great, having low IVB but 10-12 inches of horizontal movement.
Lin mixed five pitches in the start. The fastball usage sat at 46 percent but he also threw a cutter, curve, slider, and changeup. I thought the curve looked good, sitting in the upper 70s with a ton of depth and sweeping action. The changeup showed heavy fade, consistently 15 inches, showing why it has consistently been his best offering as a pro.
Kristian Robinson, OF, ARI, 23
If we are honest, I have pretty much written off Robinson as a prospect at this point. The soon to be 24 year old was once a top prospect but legal trouble caused him to miss significant time. The tools took a step back this year and Robinson made contact on less than 60 percent of pitches he swung at, one of the worst marks in baseball.
Looks like he might try to prove me wrong. Robinson was aggressive last night, seeing just 12 pitches in four trips to the plate, and all four of his swings resulted in contact. All three batted balls in play were hard-hit, registering exit velocities of 103.3, 95.9, and 95.3 mph.
Gino Groover, 3B, ARI, 22
Groover ended the year on a hot note, slashing .281/.363/.502 post All Star break. Over his final 17 games, he mashed seven home runs and four doubles. The underlying exit velocity data was slightly below average, but after missing a significant chunk of the 2024 season, Groover came to the AFL with something to prove.
He collected two hits on Wednesday, both singles. While one was a weakly hit grounder, the other was a smoked 105 mph line drive to center field. The 6’2” third baseman has always had strong contact skills, but is here to prove he can hit with the big boys. I would say a 105 exit velocity in your first game is a good start.
Kala’i Rosario, OF, MIN, 22
Another day and more scorched balls to heat up an already hot desert from Rosario. The 2023 AFL home run derby champ is back aftera disappointing 2024 season which saw him play just 69 games and post an uninspiring .238/.329/.428 slash with a 30 percent strikeout rate.
After registering two batted balls 107 mph or higher on Tuesday, including a 112 mph exit velocity, Rosario mashed a 113.1 mph home run that traveled 441 feet. He added two more batted balls at 101.6 and 106.5 mph. One thing is for sure: this guy can smoke baseballs with the best of them.
He continues to show respectable contact skills as well, just swinging and missing once on Wednesday, following just two on Tuesday. If Rosario is healthy and shows improved contact, the power upside is immense.
Peoria (Chris)
Colt Emerson, SS, SEA, 19
Emerson continues to look like the best hitter in the fall league. After missing significant during the 2024 season with rather uninspiring results when he was on the field, no hitter has started the AFL stronger than he.
After a five-hit performance on Tuesday with four doubles, Emerson added three more hits, including his fifth double in two games. Emerson now has ten batted balls, having an average exit velocity of 97 mph with a 90th percentile of 108 mph. He has an impressive 87 percent contact rate with a 93 percent in-zone mark. He topped out at 110.4 mph on Wednesday in another impressive showing.
Emerson will need to lift the ball more consistently, as ground balls have been an issue throughout his pro career. His current launch angle of 4.5 degrees is not inspiring, especially when you factor in that number dropping to three degrees on balls hit over 100 mph. With a little more loft in the swing, Emerson could be a star.
Drake Baldwin, C, ATL, 23
Baldwin continues to rake, and after a two-hit performance on Tuesday with a double, he added two more on Wednesday, which included a home run. His home run left the bat at 97.4 mph, but Baldwin also added a single at 111 mph.
He is mashing pitches in the zone, having a 90 percent in-zone contact rate and his average exit velocity on his seven batted balls so far is 96.5 mph. The combo of contact plus power from behind the plate is going to play, especially when you factor in improved defense over the years.
Having 72 games in Triple-A, Baldwin looks more than ready for the Majors, considering he posted a .298/.407/.484 slash with 12 home runs there. He added four home runs in Double-A to give him 16 home runs on the year with 36 extra-base hits. The contact skills have been plus or better all year, and the overall mark sits around 81 percent, with an in-zone mark north of 85 percent. Baldwin rarely expands the zone, chasing at a 23 percent clip, which leads to a higher OBP.
Luis Lara, OF, MIL, 19
Lara surged up prospect rankings after he spent the 2023 season in Single-A and High-A as an 18-year-old. 2024 was a step backward as the ground ball rate surged, and he slashed just .245/.332/.327 with four home runs in 489 High-A plate appearances. The positive was that Lara still swiped 45 bases, showing off his speed.
One of the youngest players in the fall league, Lara entered wanting to prove he should still be considered among the Brewers’ high-caliber prospects. He collected two hits on Wednesday, both singles, but what really stood out was the exit velocities. Despite three of his four batted balls being on the ground, he registered 102.2, 103.2, and 105.1 mph exit velocities. I would have to look back, but it might be the first time in Lara’s career he had three 100+ mph exit velocities in a game. An encouraging sign to see.
Kemp Alderman, 1B, MIA, 22
Alderman homered for the second straight day, this one leaving the yard at a 105.4 mph exit velocity. He also struck out and walked on the day, but his exit velocities continue to be highly impressive. This is no shock after he posted a 108 mph 90th percentile during the regular season.
There are definitely contact concerns and Alderman can get chase happy at times, but there is no denying the raw power is 70 grade. His six batted balls have averaged 98.3 mph so far in the fall league and we might be looking at the potential AFL MVP and home run derby champ here.
Glendale (Chris)
Connor Phillips, RHP, CIN, 23
To put it nicely, Phillips had a bad 2024 season. In 19 Triple-A starts and 78.2 innings, he owned a 8.01 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP. Yeah thats not good. The strikeout stuff ticked way back and he walked over 15 percent of batters, eventually landing on the development list.
Phillips came to Arizona hoping to prove to the Reds that he still has it and that his first start could not have gone any better. Across four innings, Phillips struck out seven and did not issue a walk. He allowed just two hits and punched out seven while generating 12 whiffs.
The fastball sat at 98 and touched 99.4 mph with good IVB up in the zone. His sweeper was sharp, averaging 13 inches of horizontal movement, sitting at 86 mph. That pitch accounted for eight of his 13 whiffs. Phillips also mixed in a curve and a change.
The start is not going to erase his 2024 season, but it is a massive step in the right direction.
Otto Kemp, INF, PHI, 25
Kemp was one of my underrated players coming into the fall league. A 25-year-old prospect without much fanfare, Kemp put up a .285/.392/.489 slash with 16 home runs, 24 doubles, and nine triples. Kemp also swiped 20 bases as he climbed from Single-A to Triple-A by season’s end.
While not having flashy tools, Kemp is a steady performer. He makes consistent contact, showing average or better overall and in-zone marks. The chase rate was better than the league average, and Kemp actually posted exit velocities that were pretty respectable.
While he did not collect a hit on Wednesday, he showed strong plate discipline and contact. He did not swing and miss and chased at just an eight percent clip. What is also notable is a 115.8 mph exit velocity. Only 15 MLB hitters posted an exit velocity that high this season.
Sean McLain, SS, LAD, 23
It is pretty cool that Sean McLain gets to share the field with his brother Matt again for the first time since high school. Sean played 95 games this year in the Dodgers Single-A and High-A affiliates, slashing .215/.326/.337 with six home runs and 25 extra-base hits. He swiped eight bases but punched out 28 percent of the time.
He collected two hits on Wednesday and if I told you he posted exit velocities of 107 mph and 75 mph, which do you think traveled further? If you guessed the 75 mph batted ball, you would be correct.
McLain has a long way to go in his prospect development, but he did have a strong game on Wednesday, which is an encouraging sign.