Arizona Fall League Recap: November 14, 2024

Chris breaks down all of Wednesday's action from the Arizona Fall League.

We have reached the final day of the regular season of the Arizona Fall League. In some ways, I am sad. There will be no baseball and a long, cold winter. But I am, in a way, ready to put all my attention on my team reports.

But we grind on. Here is a breakdown of everything you need to know that happened on Wednesday in the Arizona Fall League.

Arizona Fall League Recap: 11/14/24

Scottsdale (Chris)

Josue Briceño, 1B, DET, 20

There have been a lot of impressive Arizona Fall League performances over the years. Few have been as good as what Josue Briceño has done, especially considering he just turned 20 years old. It feels like we say this every day, I know.

While it was not a five-hit day like we saw on Tuesday, Briceño mashed his tenth home run of the fall on Wednesday with a 103 mph blast. In 23 games in the AFL, Briceño now has 16 extra-base hits and impressive 1.399 OPS.

Not that AFL stats matter in the slightest, but Briceño has been dominant in every aspect of the fall league, having a .442/.515/.884 slash line. Briceño has a massive frame that I would guess is at least 6’5” at this point. The power comes easy, and Briceño has a good feel to hit. He is a first baseman through and through at this point. I am not sure he ever goes back to catching, but the bat will play at first.

Bo Davidson, OF, SF, 22

I wrote up Davidson as a player to buy before the AFL saying:
After starting the year in Single-A, Davidson struggled and eventually rehabbed at the complex, where he got his confidence back. He ended the year with a .327/.437/.605 slash with 11 home runs, 14 doubles, and seven triples in 63 games.

The contact rate and in-zone miss might be the biggest question in the profile. For the year, his overall contact rate was below 70 percent. The chase rate is impressive though, sitting just north of 22 percent on the year.

The exit velocities and quality of contact metrics are extremely good, as Davidson posted 106 mph at the 90th percentile. He is hyper-aggressive in the zone and lifts the ball with ease.

Davidson looks like a true diamond in the rough here and a legit prospect. I would not go too crazy on him, but he could be a top-20 prospect in the Giants system. The biggest concern is how much contact he will make against better competition, and that holds me back just a ton.

It has been a slow AFL for Davidson, but he broke out in a big way on Wednesday, mashing his first home run, a grand slam, and adding a triple. 

Salt River (Chris)

Tommy Troy, 2B, ARI, 22

Troy on track! After an incredibly slow start to the AFL, Troy has picked things up as of late, and after mashing a 107 mph home run on Wednesday and adding a single, he now has his AFL OPS up near .900. 

Watching Troy and talking to Will Garafalo, who worked with Hillsboro(Arizona’s High-A affiliate), I think it’s clear that Troy played injured most of the year.

He has a strong and compact frame, and Troy is a good runner. The power is probably average at best, but I do think Troy has a good feel to hit. Look for a bounce back in 2025.

Surprise (Chris)

Brett Squires, 1B/OF, KC, 24

Squires finally got on the board with his first AFL home run, and it was a big one. An opposite field 109.3 mph shot off Jackson Fristoe. It is actually surprising that he has not gotten on the board until Wednesday, considering the fact that he has a 93 mph average exit velocity and a near 109 90th percentile. 

Squires is one of the more underrated power prospects in the Royals organization, hitting some massive home runs when I saw him in 2023 when he played in Columbia. Injuries sidelined him for most of 2024, but in High-A, he hit .309/.390/.481 with nine home runs and 16 stolen bases.

Being 6’2”/210, Squires moves well, and his stolen bases are not a fluke. In fact, he stole 32 in 2023. There are questions surrounding his contact ability, but when he does connect, Squires does damage. He pulls the ball with authority and hits a ton of line drives and fly balls.

Mesa (Chris)

Jonathon Long, CI, CHC, 22

Long, one of the more impressive hitters in the AFL continued to stand out on Wednesday. Mesa collected a total of five hits, and two of them belonged to Long, who had a double and a triple. Both the double and triple were smoked line drives down the right field line. The double was an impressive swing on a pitch on the inner half.

Long now has 11 extra-base hits to pair with six home runs this fall with an impressive .338 average and a 1.087 OPS. The swing can get a bit long at times, but Long has made consistent contact all season. He looks like a player nearly ready for his MLB debut in the windy city.

Samy Natera Jr, LHP, LAA, 25

Natera is an intriguing lefty in the Angles system who was taken in the 17th round of the 2022 draft. At 25 years old, Natera is on the older side of things for prospects, but given his draft year and injuries, it is not surprising he has not made it past Double-A. In 2023, Natera posted a 4.76 ERA across 90.2 innings with 118 strikeouts. Pitching just 15 innings last year due to injury, Natera struck out 24 and walked six while allowing just one earned run.

On Wednesday, Natera tossed two no-hit innings as he struck out four batters and generated six whiffs. His fastball works in the low-to-mid 90s, touching 96 mph at peak. It shows good carry-up in the zone. He also mixes slider in the 80-83 mph range with long sweeping action and a changeup that sits 83-85 mph. 

Natera seems to be on the cusp of making his MLB debut despite only pitching seven innings above High-A. The arm talent is there.

Glendale (Chris)

Jerming Rosario, RHP, LAD, 22

Rosario was one of the more fun looks I had in the AFL with an electric four-pitch arsenal. The command comes and goes at times, but Rosario can pitch, and that was on full display on Wednesday as Rosario struck out seven batters over three scoreless innings. He allowed just one hit and did not issue a walk. 

Landing over 70 percent of pitches for strikes will absolutely play, and Rosario generated an impressive 15 whiffs. Having a smaller frame, Rosario works his fastball in the 93-96 mph range with a slider that sits in the mid-80s. With his curveball, Rosario dials it back to the 76-79 mph range. He rounds out his arsenal with an 84-87 mph changeup. The arsenal is one that gives him a chance to be a solid arm for the Dodgers for a long time.

Tyler Callihan, 2B/OF, CIN, 24

Glendale’s offense was pretty stagnant on Wednesday, as they collected a total of five hits and scored one run. Callihan was the entire offense as he mashed a solo home run to dead center.

The former third-round pick has had an up-and-down career since being drafted in 2019. While Callihan did miss time in 2024, he also reached Triple-A. In his 17 AFL games, Callihan has two home runs with a .250 average and a .716 OPS.

Peoria (Chris)

Romeo Sanabria, 1B, SD, 22

Sanabria was the highlight of Peoria’s sluggish offense on Wednesday, collecting two hits, both singles. He did light up the exit velocity leaderboard, having EVs of 109 and 107 mph. 

He flew under the radar this year in the minors, and while the results have not been eye-popping in the AFL, Sanabria has been solid. Having a smooth swing from the left side, Sanabria has explosive hands, creating easy pop. He hits a ton of line drives, posting a rate north of 26 percent this year with a respectable fly ball rate as well. Sanabria has healthy exit velocities and hits all fields well.

The 6’3” frame helps generate pop, and even though he was drafted as a catcher in 2022, Sanabria is now first base only. There is pressure on the bat there, but Sanabria has a solid combo of hit tool with emerging power.

Brock Wilken, 3B, MIL, 22

Struggling for most of the AFL, it seems like the home run derby might have ignited something in Wilken, who mashed a 107 mph home run that traveled 390 feet. It was his fourth AFL home run, and Wilken raised his OPS to .567 on the fall. That number just shows you how things have gone this fall. There are a lot of external factors at play here with Wilken, but it is at least good to see him end the year on a positive note.