Arizona Fall League Recap: November 13, 2024
Chris and Beck break down an action packed Tuesday in the AFL
Happy Wednesday, we bring you this AFL recap just in time to watch Wednesday’s slate of games in the fall league. Before you do, be sure to catch up on everything that happened on Tuesday in the desert.
Arizona Fall League Recap: 11/13/24
Scottsdale (Chris)
Kendry Rojas, LHP, TOR, 21
Rojas has slowly begun to put things together over the last few weeks after a slow start to the fall league. One of my favorite arms in Arizona, Rojas, looked like a bad call early on. His final start of the AFL was 2.2 scoreless innings. Rojas threw strikes at a high clip and struck out three batters while generating five whiffs.
After missing a chunk of the year with a shoulder injury, he returned to High-A from his rehab assignment on July 9 and has been rather dominant. In 62.2 innings, Rojas posted a 2.59 ERA with 69 strikeouts and just 14 walks.
Rojas saw a big velocity tick up this year, especially before the injury. He went from sitting 92-93 mph to consistently sitting 94-96 and topping out at 97. Rojas has filled out his frame and added weight since last season, so it is no surprise to see him with added velocity.
In addition to the fastball, Rojas has a devastating changeup with late drop and fade, generating plenty of whiffs. The slider is more of a gyro shape in the mid-80s, and Rojas even added an upper-80s cutter this year.
Jake Miller, LHP, DET, 23
Miller flew under the radar most of the year despite putting up really impressive numbers. Part of the reason could be that he spent most of the year in Single-A as a 22-year-old, but Miller finished in Double-A. Outside of Andrew Painter, Miller was the most impressive arm I saw in the AFL.
On Tuesday, Miller struck out four batters across 2.1 innings, following Rojas in the start. He did allow four hits and two earned runs, with the damage coming on a Nick Kurtz home run. Miller posted an impressive ten whiffs on the start.
The fastball sits in the lower 90s, working between 90 and 93 mph, and the changeup was highly impressive. Miller mixed a shorter gyro slider and a more horizontal sweeper. During the regular season, Miller’s fastball sat closer to 93, which is an encouragement given the good secondaries. This is a MLB caliber arm.
Josue Briceño, 1B, DET, 20
There have been a lot of impressive Arizona Fall League performances over the years. Few have been as good as what Josue Briceño has done, especially considering he just turned 20 years old.
A five-hit day on Tuesday saw him collect two doubles and drive in four runs. Briceño is just one home run shy of reaching double-digits, and he has two doubles and triples a piece in 22 games of action.
Not that AFL stats matter in the slightest, but Briceño has been dominant in every aspect of the fall league, having a .439/.505/.866 slash line. Briceño has a massive frame that I would guess is at least 6’5” at this point. The power comes easy, and Briceño has a good feel to hit. He is a first baseman through and through at this point. I am not sure he ever goes back to catching, but the bat will play at first.
Thayron Liranzo, C, DET, 21
Liranzo attempted to pace his teammate, Josue Briceño, collecting four hits on Tuesday, including a home run. Surprisingly, it was just Liranzo’s second home run of the fall, but his performance has been impressive, nonetheless.
Showing strong skills behind the plate, Liranzo is capable of sticking at catcher long-term. The bat will only play up if he does catch because the power profile is strong. Putting up some of the best exit velocities in baseball, Liranzo has also shown improved contact over the last two years.
Much like with Briceño, I don’t put much stock into the numbers, but Liranzo has walked more than he has struck out and has a .375/.492/.667 slash.
Salt River (Chris)
Caleb Durbin, INF, NYY, 24
Durbin continues to perform strongly day after day. That was the case again on Tuesday, just a day after he broke the AFL stolen base record. He did swipe two more bases to push his total to 29, but what was most notable was the fact he ended the day just a triple shy of the cycle.
The home run left the bat at 98 mph, and his double also tried to leave the yard, which traveled 347 feet.
While I think Briceño likely wins MVP of the AFL, Durbin is going to give him a run for his money. His 29 stolen bases are pretty much more than the rest of the league combined. I am slightly kidding, but it would take adding up the next three highest stolen base totals to surpass him. He also had five home runs and 11 extra-base hits while having an OPS north of 1.006.
There has been a significant amount of buzz around Durbin this fall, especially with Yankees manager Aaron Boone talking about him having an opportunity to be the team’s second baseman next year. The funny thing is, Durbin is the same player he was last year in the AFL and pretty much his entire career. I guess it took two studly AFL performances for people to begin to take notice.
Ryan Ritter, SS, COL, 24
Ritter made his presence known on Tuesday, blasting a big-time home run that left the bat with a 109.3 mph exit velocity. He added another hard-hit ball with a 101 mph exit velocity as he had a single and reached base a third time on a fielding error.
The numbers have not looked great at all for his AFL stint, but seeing Ritter in person, he was much more physical than I anticipated. He looked solid in the field, and when he connects, Ritter has put up strong exit velocities. The problem is the contact rates have been highly concerning.
Surprise (Chris)
Carter Jensen, C, KC, 21
Anytime I can find an excuse to write about Carter Jensen, I am. One of my favorite catching prospects in the game, Jensen, has a skill set that will not only play for real-life purposes but also fantasy. Sure, it was just two singles on Tuesday, but he scorched both of them with exit velocities of 108.8 and 107.4 mph.
While he has played just ten games, the numbers are impressive. Jensen has four home runs and three doubles to pair with a .421/.551/.816 slash. He has a 96 mph average exit velocity in the AFL to pair with a max of 115 mph. The chase rate of 15 percent is right in line with what he has done in the past, and Jensen is making contact on pitches in the zone at an 86 percent clip.
Jensen checks a lot of boxes and could be ready to be in Kansas City in 2025.
Mesa (Chris)
Nick Kurtz, 1B, OAK, 21
Kurtz was one of the long bright spots in Mesa’s offense on Monday, as he collected two hits, including a big home run, deep to center field. His bat-to-ball skills and point of contact are both quite strong, and the power comes easily from a massive 6’5” frame. Kurtz is actually a good athlete for his size, even if he is a below-average runner.
If you want one of the safest profiles in the draft, it is Nick Kurtz. In all three seasons at Wake Forest, Kurtz has hit and hit some more. He finished his college career with 61 home runs in 164 games, including 22 this season in 54 games. Having a strong eye at the plate, Kurtz finished his Wake career with a .510 OBP and 189 walks to just 130 strikeouts over 784 plate appearances.
He looks ready for the majors already despite being drafted this summer. A June or July call-up feels quite reasonable at this point for the Athletics first baseman.
Denzel Clarke, OF, OAK, 24
Clarke is an incredible athlete and has tools for days. Contact has been a bit of a question throughout his career, but he made significant strides in the second half of the regular season. His setup pre-swing is interesting as Clarke gets in almost a squat position and arches hit back. He makes it work, even if it looks a bit uncomfortable.
In Tuesday’s game, Clarke collected two more hits and continues to hit and post solid contact rates. Although AFL pitching is not great, Clarke’s results continue to standout upon his peers. He has an OPS of 1.083 and has shown good power and base running ability.
Clarke is surging up prospect rankings, and it is not just because of his AFL performance. The data has been strong and the improved contact skills are impressive. This could be the next Lawrence Butler-type profile.
Glendale (Beck)
Zyhir Hope, OF, LAD, 19
Hope is still holding his own against much older competition. He’s one of the buzziest prospects in baseball, and for good reason. His underlying data is nuts. I was a little surprised by how stocky he is in person, but it’s not a bad body and he doesn’t need any further projection to contend for the title of top prospect in baseball before he graduates. He was 1-for-5 with his fifth AFL dinger on Tuesday.
Nathan Church, OF, STL, 24
I’m listening to Hozier’s Take Me to Church as I write this. This Church, the one that plays the outfield, was an 11th-rounder in the 2022 draft out of UC Irvine and pushed his way to Double-A to open 2024. The numbers weren’t awesome; there’s some average and OBP here, but virtually no slugging. He managed just one home run in 127 games and hasn’t added one in 14 games in the AFL. As you can probably surmise, he doesn’t need to be on your fantasy radar right now and probably won’t be later given he’s already 24. He finished yesterday’s game 2-for-4 with a double.
Tyler Callihan, 2B, CIN, 24
Callihan is on the fringe of the Reds’ 40-man roster and may very well be left exposed in the Rule 5 draft. He’s a former 3rd rounder (2019) who hasn’t had it all click and looks a lot like the other outfielders kicking around in Cincinnati’s system. He finally pushed to Triple-A in 2024 after playing just 372 games in five years, but it doesn’t look like his AFL campaign is going to save him. He has an uninspiring .250/.325/.361 slash in 17 games, and there are just a few yet to play in the circuit. He hit his first AFL home run in Tuesday’s win over Surprise, a three-run shot that extended their lead and proved decisive.
Andrew Painter, RHP, PHI, 21
Painter is back. I have no real worries with him; his velocity is fine, his stuff looks good, and the quibbles you may have are either extremely common after Tommy John (command/control rust) or likely a product of the environment (loud contact). He finished this one with one earned run in 2.1 innings of work and six strikeouts. He’s the #1 domestic pitching prospect, and the qualifier is only present because of the recent news that Roki Sasaki will be posted this off-season.
Peoria (Beck)
Andrew Pintar, OF, MIA, 23
Pintar is having a perfectly fine AFL, not distinctly different from his regular season line in any significant regard, which makes some sense given he spent some time in Amarillo (very hitter friendly) and Pensacola (mildly hitter friendly). Still, you’d have hoped for better from one of the guys the Marlins received in the A.J. Puk trade this summer, especially considering he’s 23 years old. He didn’t catch my eye while I was out there (in his defense he wasn’t one of the players I was most interested in seeing) except for on the defensive side of the ball where he played a competent center field. He hit his third AFL home run (101 mph EV) and finished the day 2-for-3 with two RBIs, two runs scored, a walk, and a strikeout yesterday.
Jared Sundstrom, OF, SEA, 23
Sundstrom is listed at 6-foot-2, 230 lbs, and I would agree with that. He looks like an athlete on the field. He was a 10th-rounder last summer out of UC Santa Barbara and spent 112 games with Everett (.263/.380/.434) before shipping out the AFL. Given his size, you’d expect more pop than he’s shown. He topped out at 15 home runs in 50 games using an aluminum bat in college and only managed 13 during the regular season. He has three in the AFL – roughly the same pace – and it’s a hitter’s environment through and through. I don’t necessarily see a ton of promise in his profile for fantasy unless he’s able to unlock more game power, which seems unlikely given he already has a healthy vertical spray distribution. He was 3-for-5 with a double and two RBIs on Tuesday.
Brendan Durfee, C, SDP, 23
Durfee was a guy I had statline scouted before shipping out to the AFL. His career college numbers were great including a platform year at UC Santa Barbara (no overlap with Sundstrom) in which he slashed .349/.455/.566. He, like Sundstrom, is a bigger guy that hasn’t hit for much power – but unlike Sundstrom, he didn’t have much pop in college. He’s managed just two homers in 123 combined plate appearances between Lake Elsinore and the AFL since being drafted in the 14th round in July. Like most 14th rounders (not all, and we love the ones who break through) there isn’t much to see for fantasy right now. He was 2-for-5 with two singles in yesterday’s loss to Salt River.