Arizona Fall League Recap: 10/6/23

Arizona Fall League recap from October 6, 2023 from Chris and Beck.

Hey everyone! Hope your offseason is starting off well. Beck and Chris will be with you everyday this Fall Leauge, breaking down everything you need to know from the previous day! Today’s writeup is free and features 22 player writeups. Moving forward, the writeups will be for subscribers so to get an edge in your dynasty league, sub below and get access to all of this:

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Beck has Salt River, Scottsdale, and Surprise covered for you. Chris has Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.

Salt River

Jace Jung, 2B, DET, 23

Jung had a perfect night at the dish, going 2-2 with two walks to reach base in every plate appearance. He hasn’t made a sheet appearance yet, largely because he hasn’t done much in the AFL so far across 3 games. The two hits last night were his second and third of the week.

I’ll be honest, I did not pay enough attention to Jace during the regular season. He finished the year at AA after starting in West Michigan and compiled a .265/.376/.502 line with 28 home runs and five stolen bases. He’s limited defensively, and he has an unorthodox pre-swing procedure, but this is a pretty strong surface performance all things considered.

Jake McSteen, RP, ATL, 27

McSteen is not a name I was familiar with prior to last night. He was a four-year athlete at the University of Nebraska who made 44 appearances, 9 of which as the starting pitcher. After that, he spent a year in Indy Ball with the Joliet Slammers where he pitched to a 2.70 ERA over 8 starts spanning 50 innings. The Braves scooped him up and have been deploying him largely as org depth in a relief role.

There’s virtually no fantasy intrigue here, but he was very effective last night. He pitched two relief innings without allowing a baserunner and struck out 3 of the 6 batters faced.

Sterlin Thompson, 3B/OF, COL, 22

Sterlin kept chugging along with a ho-hum two-hit night. He deposited a pair of singles in the 1st and 4th innings that left the bat at 104.5 mph and 103.4 mph, respectively. As the first week of the AFL closes he’s currently tied for second in hits with 7, two of which are the extra-base variety.

Scottsdale

Victor Scott II, OF, STL, 22

Watch out for Victor Scott. I think he’s one of a handful of candidates to see a huge value bump from a productive AFL, especially if he has a strong couple of games during First Pitch Arizona. He had 3 hits, a walk, a run, and a stolen base last night in a losing effort for the Scorpions.

Scott’s standout tool is his top-of-the-scale speed. He had it on full display last night, bunting for two of his hits (one down each baseline, which is impressive) and snagging third off of Carson Spiers and Michael Trautwein.

Carter Howell, OF, SFG, 24

Howell added a solo home run in the fourth inning to bring Scottsdale within two runs. He also walked and scored two additional runs after reaching on a throwing error by Cameron Cauley.

Howell is having a strong AFL, albeit small sample, with 4 hits in 10 ABs in his first 3 games in the desert. He’s walked twice and struck out 3 times. I don’t think there is a lot of fantasy appeal here given his minor league track record while being old for each level.

Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, STL, 22

Hjerpe tossed just one inning yesterday, retiring two by way of the strikeout. He generated five whiffs in his single inning of work. He’s on the sheet because I’m monitoring his usage closely – it appears the Cardinals are looking to get him some extra innings without overextending him after surgery to remove loose bodies in his throwing elbow this summer. There’s always been a little bit of chatter about whether Hjerpe is truly a starter, and I can’t imagine the Cardinals want to bail on that possibility already, but he’s also only been deployed in relief since returning from injury.

Surprise

Abimelec Ortiz, 1B, TEX, 21

Ortiz smoked a no-doubt two run homer to his pull side in the top of the 6th to extend the Saguaros lead to 8-4. It left the bat at 107 mph and traveled an estimated 444 feet over the right field wall. The AFL is a good opportunity for Ortiz to prove himself against pitching that is at least a little more advanced after he ravished A ball and had a solid showing in A+ to close the year.

Ortiz was an honorable mention on my minor league team of the year for posting a .294/.371/.619/.990 line with 33 HRs in 454 PAs. The power is undeniable and he showed it off last night, but there are some concerns with identifying spin and chasing out of the zone that I think he can quiet by demonstrating growth this fall. He was all over the box score in this one, collecting two hits, two walks, two runs, and 3 RBI.

Michael Trautwein, C, CIN, 24

Trautwein followed in Ortiz's footsteps and slugged a home run in the very next plate appearance. He also had a two RBI single in what turned out to be a 5 run first inning for the Saguaros. He was a 13th-round selection in 2021 out of Northwestern and has seen limited action over the last two years due to injury. He had a .248/.360/.384 line across A+ and AA this year and is more valuable as a defender than he is offensively.

Gavin Cross, OF, KCR, 22

Cross was 1-4 in this one with a single, a walk, two stolen bases, and two strikeouts. While the bags were nice to see, I’m more concerned that he’s continuing to strike out at this clip. He carried a 27.8% K-rate in the regular season as a player touted for their hit-tool pre-draft. As an advanced college hitter, it’s not what you would have hoped for. Rooting for Gavin and happy to see him get on base a couple of times and be aggressive on the basepaths, but there are bigger problems than him being a solid runner.

Glendale

Colson Montgomery, SS, CHW, 21

It has been a rather slow start to the Arizona Fall League for Colson Montgomery, but on Friday night, he collected two singles. Both were ground balls in the gap and it is possible he could have been thrown out on both, but both were scored hits. Montgomery did strikeout twice and has an OPS of just .334 but hopefully this can be a spark he needs to get going. He features a great feel to hit plus power that could lead to a strong AFL once he gets going.

Corey Rosier, OF, BOS, 24

Rosier made three stops in the 2023 season, moving from High-A Greenville all the way to Triple-A. He is a player I have seen often as he spent all of 2022 in Greenville as well. He is a major speed source as shown by his 56 stolen bases this year to pair with eight home runs. He makes a lot of contact(78.5 percent this year) and walks at a league-average clip. 

On Friday, Rosier went just one for four with a single, but he stole his second base of the AFL and has a smooth .400 batting average with a .900 OPS. He may never be a major fantasy asset but is a player to watch.

Christopher Troye, RHP, BOS

Troye is a reliever to watch closely in the Fall League and he showed what he is made of on Friday night by tossing two scoreless innings with two strikeouts. Troye allowed one hit and one walk, and threw strikes at a 66 percent clip. Troye has a big fastball with nice ride while also showing good feel for a slider. 

Mesa

Brett Harris, 3B, OAK, 25

Harris is a high OBP type of hitter who makes plenty of contact, but his plate discipline was on tap for all to see on Friday as he walked four times and came around to score twice. Being in Oakland’s org may allow him to come into some playing time as soon as next season.

Jamie Melendez, RHP, HOU, 22 

Injuries have sadly been the story of Melendez’s career so far as he made it to Double-A in 2021 as a 19-year-old but has not moved past the level since. Melendez is smaller, standing at 5’8”, with a fastball around 93 mph with nice riding action. His slider has good shape but does not miss bats at level you might expect. 

On Friday, Melendez fired three scoreless innings with two hits and two walks apiece while striking out just one hitter.

Jack Perkins, RHP, OAK, 23

Perkins threw 108 innings in 2023 split pretty evenly between High-A and Double-A, which were polar opposite results. In High-A, he posted a 2.52 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with a 23 percent strikeout rate in 53.2 innings. In Double-A, Perkins saw the ERA jump to 5.67 with a 1.83 WHIP in 54 innings.

On Friday night, Perkins threw two scoreless innings of relief with three strikeouts. His fastball got up to 95.3 mph, and he also mixed a cutter, slider, and changeup. He finished the day with a 35 percent whiff rate and a 30 percent CSW.

Peoria

Jakob Marsee, OF, SD, 22

Marsee has made my writeups every day as he continues to be the best hitter in the league by having a .600 batting average and a 1.783 slugging percentage through five games. 

On Friday, Marsee collected two hits, which included a double, and stole his fourth base in five games. I am sorry for doubting you, Jakob!

Nasim Nuñez, SS, MIA, 23

Nuñez is off to a slow start but got things going in the desert on Friday, collecting two hits and stealing his second base. He is a speed specialist, stealing 52 bases in the regular season while hitting five home runs and scoring 84 times. He did have a .224/.341/.286 slash line and when your slugging percentage is that much lower than your OBP there should be some concerns. Still, Nuñez is going to be the type to get on base at a high clip due to his plate discipline and high walk rates, and can steal a base every time he gets on first.

Carson Williams, SS, TB, 20

Williams was on base four times on Friday, collecting two walks, a single, and a double. He stole his second base of the AFL and scored once. Williams had a little league grand slam earlier in the week, but other than that it has been slow going for Williams in the first week of the Arizona Fall League. It is good to see him on base in every plate appearance, as the hope is he can continue to build on Friday night’s success.

Zach McCambley, RHP, MIA, 24

Despite getting just 44.2 innings of work this season due to injury, McCambley put up a solid performance across the board. In Double-A, he posted a 3.76 ERA and a 26 percent strikeout rate while getting destroyed by a .366 BABIP and a 13 percent walk rate. 

McCambley came in on Friday and pitched 1.1 scoreless innings with two strikeouts. After being a starter his entire career, he moved to the bullpen there year where his curveball is sure to devastate hitters.