Arizona Fall League Recap: 10/8/25

Mesa Solar Sox

Cole Mathis, 1B, Chicago Cubs

This game was closer than it had any business being. Peoria shot themselves in the foot with a fielding error and a few passed balls, but Cole Mathis was the biggest contributor to this game being even mildly. The 2024 second-rounder finished the night with three hits in three at bats to go with a pair of walks, two runs batted in, and a run scored. He’d been a difference-maker for College of Charleston, posting a .335/.472/.650 slash with absurd underlying data markers all while playing both ways in his platform campaign. There hasn’t been much opportunity to see it translate to pro ball, as a Tommy John procedure shortly after the draft and an undisclosed injury sustained in May limited him to just 29 games in the Carolina League this year. All told, he’s one of the most interesting under-the-radar guys in this year’s crop.

Coby Morales, 1B/OF, New York Yankees

Morales was the one other bright spot in the Mesa lineup on Wednesday, finishing 1-for-2 with a two-run homer and a pair of walks. He’s struggled to find his footing since being drafted in the 18th round in 2023, carrying strikeout rates of 29.2% and 25.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. He has enough raw pop to be dangerous, but his 31.1% fly ball rate hinders his ability to get to it in games. He finished with seven home runs in 116 contests in 2025.

Brailer Guerrero, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Guerrero, who I suspect holds the AFL record for most ‘R’s in a single name, had a frustrating night. He struck out three times, narrowly avoiding a golden sombrero, but also put two balls in play over 100 mph and was left hitless. He’s one of the youngest players on the circuit, joining four other 19-year-olds (Starlyn Caba, Alfredo Duno, Juan Flores, and Sebastian Walcott).

Surprise Saguaros

Josh Adamczewski, 2B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers

I’ve not been shy about my affinity for Adamczewski. It was aggressive to place him in my August top 100, but I believe in his bat. He was spectacular in Carolina (Single-A) before an injury abbreviated his season, and the Brewers pushed him to High-A a month after he returned.

He’ll need to get to power to justify his defensive limitations, and his bat speed along with his vertical and horizontal spray tendencies lend credence to the idea that he could. He made his first AFL home run count, driving in three baserunners and himself in an otherwise uneventful night at the dish.

Blake Mitchell, C, Kansas City Royals

Mitchell had an uneven 2025 returning from a broken right hamate suffered in February. He played just 60 games and struggled to hit for the same kind of impact he had historically; he swatted three homers in 255 plate appearances versus the 18 he managed across 486 plate appearances in 2024. That’s the sort of power sap hamate injuries are notorious for, and it’s likely (perhaps even expected) he returns to form with a little distance between him and the surgery. He went 2-for-4 with two walks and three runs scored.

Luke Adams, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

Adams always reminds me of the Moneyball scene in which Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill discuss Chad Bradford, an overlooked reliever often dismissed because he threw funny. Adams hits funny, but he definitely hits, and that’s what’s most important. He’s never had a wRC+ lower than 130 in a full season and he’s rather adept at getting on base — which should be a signal that the better comp from that particular film might be Kevin Youkilis.

I am expecting Adams to have a productive fall league. It’s a hitter-friendly environment, he’s one of the more polished players in the circuit, and he’s probably going to work walks at an even greater rate than he typically does. He hit his first home run of the circuit in the top of the 9th and temporarily gave Surprise a 10-8 lead.

Salt River Rafters

Esmerlyn Valdez, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Valdez got just one official at-bat given that he was walked three times on Wednesday, but he made the most of it. Valdez got every bit of a home run that traveled 414 feet with a 29-degree launch angle. Smoked with a 114.4 mph exit velocity, the ball got out in a hurry. Valdez is no stranger to high-end exit velocities, though, as he had a 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and topped out at 116 during the regular season.

He is not just a power hitter, though, as Valdez showed a strong in-zone contact rate of 85 percent this season. The approach is also strong as well as he chased just 20 percent of pitches out of the zone. While he did not chase often, he did struggle with contact on pitches out of the zone.

When all is said and done, it would not be shocking if Valdez is the AFL MVP.

Charlie Condon, 1B, Colorado Rockies

While Condon did not collect a hit in yesterday’s action, he has his swing looking good and hit a couple of balls quite hard. His hardest hit ball of the day nearly left the yard, traveling 390 feet to the wall in left-center. It left the bat at 101.2 mph, and Condon added another batted ball at 100 mph.

The biggest thing I have seen so far is that Condon has his swing looking the best it has in some time. The environment in Arizona is low-pressure, and Condon should be in a good spot to really build on his strong finish to the season and rebuild some prospect value.

Glendale Desert Dogs

Hagen Smith, LHP, Chicago White Sox

Smith finished out the year on a high note in the semi-final of the Southern League playoffs as he struck out ten batters across five scoreless innings. This was sandwiched between a six-walk regular season finale in which he allowed just one hit and a five-walk championship game for the Southern League.

Sharp on Wednesday, Smith tossed three scoreless innings with just three hits and two walks allowed. He punched out four batters and generated 11 whiffs, good for a 55 percent whiff rate. The fastball worked in the mid-90s, topping out at 97 mph and was good for a 50 percent whiff rate.

From a secondary standpoint, Smith relied heavily on the slider which sat around 83 mph with good depth and around five inches of sweep. He did mix in a couple of changeups that worked around 90 mph.

Travis Honeyman, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Honeyman was the only hitter on Glendale to blast a home run on Wednesday and it was a big one, a 107 mph shot that traveled 430 feet. To his point, Honeyman’s pro career has been marked by injuries to this point, but in 2025, he got a career-high 358 plate appearances.

While he hit just three home runs between Single-A and High-A this year, Honeyman slashed .287/.411/.367. Ground balls kept Honeyman from getting to more game power, but one of his best traits is his speed and efficiency on the base paths. Honeyman was 10 for 11 on stolen base attempts this year.

The former 2023 third-round pick could use a big month in Arizona.

Josh Kasevich, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

When you think of Kasevich, one of the best contact hitters in the minors should come to mind. In 2024, Kasevich ran a 90 percent overall contact rate with a 95 percent in-zone mark. Missing most of 2025 with injury, Kasevich still managed to post a 92 percent in-zone contact mark with an overall rate of 87 percent.

Despite putting a ton of balls in play, Kasevich often puts the ball on the ground and has a whole field’s approach, limiting power. This year, though a small sample, Kasevich lowered his ground ball rate to 34 percent and showed improved hard-hit rates. The average exit velocity was just shy of 90 mph for the second straight year, but the high-end exit velocities lag.

While not collecting a hit on Wednesday, Kasevich put up three batted balls north of 104 mph, including a 108.3 mph, his hardest hit ball of the year. The hard-hit balls were encouraging; Kasevich will just need to get the ball in the air more often.

Peoria Javelinas

Luis De León, LHP, Baltimore Orioles

De León turned in the best performance of the AFL to this point(small sample) of any pitcher as he tossed innings of one-hit ball. He struck out seven batters and walked just two across 70 pitches. Producing 11 whiffs, De León led with his slider, which generated a 43 percent whiff rate on the offering.

The fastball sat 96.3 mph and topped near 99 mph while consistently having north of 15 inches of arm-side run. De León also mixed a changeup and a splitter that missed bats at high clips.

In a 2025 season that has been marred by injury and limited De León to just 87 innings, he finished the year on a high note. In his final six starts, De León struck out at least eight batters in every start and included a career-high 12-strikeout game sprinkled in. In seven starts from the start of August forward, De León posted a 1.47 ERA with a 41 percent strikeout rate.

Thomas Sosa, OF, Baltimore Orioles

While he struck out two times, Sosa blasted a 107.5 mph home run with an elite swing speed of 83.4 mph. He also added a single and had a flyout with a 105 mph exit velocity.

Injuries limited Sosa to just 275 plate appearances in 2025, but the 20-year-old reached Double-A by season’s end and wound up with nine home runs and 21 extra-base hits. He improved his contact rates, but had a slash of just .214/.298/.383.

Sosa is a prospect to keep a close eye on in Arizona.

Hendry Mendez, OF, Minnesota Twins

The two hardest hit balls of the game belonged to Mendez, who had a 110 mph groundout and a 109.8 mph single that was a smoked line drive. This followed a performance on Monday in which he homered and had a couple of hard-hit balls.

Mendez just put together his best career season in 2025, slashing .299/.399/.439 with 11 home runs and ten stolen bases. The home run total was as many as his previous three seasons combined.

The underlying data was solid as Mendez posted a 90th percentile exit velocity near 105 mph and had solid contact rates. The overall contact rate sat at 86 percent and chased less than 20 percent of pitches out of the zone. The in-zone contact rate was above 90 percent.

Scottsdale Scorpions

Axiel Plaz, C, Pittsburgh Pirates

Scottsdale handed Salt River an old-school whooping on Wednesday, and Axiel Plaz was holding the belt for much of the contest. He finished 4-for-5 with four singles, an RBI, and a run scored as he looks to build on a modest campaign that featured a .236/.327/.414 slash and 10 home runs over 66 games. His 107.3 mph EV90 in Bradenton this year makes him one of the more promising power-hitting prospects in the NL Central.

Seaver King, SS, Washington Nationals

King is most regarded for his glove and athleticism and is unlikely to return the sort of offensive value associated with the first third of the first round where he went in last summer’s draft, but he got off to a great start with a home run and a double in Wednesday’s contest. The desert is a far friendlier environment than the Eastern League and he’s a more polished product than most in this year’s crop, so Arizona could be just what he needs to put a spring in his step before play resumes in 2026.

Kevin McGonigle, SS, Detroit Tigers

Anything less than absolute dominance would be a disappointment for McGonigle. In many ways it doesn’t matter: a 25-game sample in a developmental circuit won’t impact his status as one of the top prospects in the sport and he had a solid Wednesday, anyway. He finished 2-for-5 with a double, a walk, two runs batted in, and a run scored. Ho-hum.