Arizona Fall League Recap: 10/5/23

Arizona Fall League recap from October 5, 2023 from Chris and Beck.

Hey everyone! Hope your offseason is starting off well. Beck and Chris will be with you everyday this Fall Leauge, breaking down everything you need to know from the previous day! Today’s writeup is free and features 22 player writeups. Moving forward, the writeups will be for subscribers so to get an edge in your dynasty league, sub below and get access to all of this:

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Beck has Salt River, Scottsdale, and Surprise covered for you. Chris has Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.

Salt River

Keshawn Ogans, 2B, ATL, 22

Ogans collected three hits and 3 RBI in 4 at-bats for Salt River in this contest. He wasn’t lighting up statcast to get it done – his singles had EVs of 89.7, 69.2, and 67.0 – and I don’t reckon he projects to be a statcast darling moving forward. He’s listed at just 5’8, 180 lbs, and has managed a respectable if unremarkable 10 home runs in 142 minor league games to this point.

AJ Vukovich, 3B/OF, ARI, 22

Vukovich notched the only extra-base hit for Salt River with an 88.7 mph double in the first inning. He also contributed a single, two runs, and an RBI. It’s his second time here, partially because of the extra-base hit thing, but mostly because Nate Handy requested a glowing review.

I can’t give it to you, Nate. There is undoubtedly room for Vukovich to develop as he’s still young, is very athletic, and has a lean, lanky build. At present, Vukovich is a bag of 45s to 55s. That’s good as is, and he’s worth keeping an eye on as the fall progresses.

Brooks Wilson, RP, ATL, 27

I’m writing about a pair of relievers today, both with good reason. For Wilson, it’s because he’s an interesting story – drafted out of Stetson in the 7th round back in 2018 by the Braves and was poised to join their bullpen in 2022 before going down with Tommy John.

He was excellent last night, tossing a perfect inning punctuated by three strikeouts on just 11 pitches. He’s crafty without overpowering stuff, leveraging a repertoire that fits the middle-reliever or low-leverage role. It’s nice to see him back on the field and I hope he finds his way to a big league diamond soon.

Scottsdale

Adrian Placencia, 2B, LAA, 20

Finally, I have a home run on my side of the sheet! Placencia launched a solo shot in the top of the 8th inning to give Scottsdale a 3-2 lead over Glendale and preserve their perfect record. 

Placencia was not a player I had considered ranking at any point in 2023, nor was he a name my eyes darted to when rosters were released. He’s been young everywhere he’s been but has really struggled to perform sans a solid stop at A ball in 2022, where he slashed .254/.387/.427. He spent the majority of 2023 at A+ Tri City and failed to OPS over .700 despite contributing 9 home runs and 24 stolen bases (in 35 attempts) over 109 contests.

Christian McGowan, RHP, PHI, 23

McGowan matched a season high in innings on Thursday, going four scoreless with a walk and two strikeouts on just 40 pitches. He made only nine starts in 2023, and his minor league career spans a minuscule 38 innings as the result of injuries in 2021 and Tommy John surgery in 2022.

He has a three-pitch mix he commands well, including a sinking four-seam fastball, a hard slider, and a changeup he uses sparingly. His track record bears similarity to Mason Miller in that there is very little of it, but this is not a Miller situation simply because McGowan doesn’t possess the same quality stuff.

Victor Scott II, OF, STL, 22

Scott led all of the minor leagues in stolen bases during the regular season, notching a mind-melting 94 bags in 132 games. He’s the first of two players on the sheet with arguably 80-grade wheels and or better defensive ability in the outfield, but Scott had the much better statistical 2023 season (.303/.369/.425 with 9 home runs and the aforementioned 94 stolen bases).

He was a 5th-round selection by the Cardinals in 2022 and was billed as one of the most athletic players coming out of the Big 12 in the class. As is typical of this profile, Scott doesn’t project for impact power but makes enough contact and has enough plate discipline to wreak havoc with his legs. He got better upon promotion to AA Springfield, where he hit seven of his nine home runs in just 16 more plate appearances than he had at A+, but that can likely be attributed to the relative park factors between the Texas League and the Midwest League. It’s hard not to draw a comparison to Esteury Ruiz, but even if it’s not a perfect comp, their profiles certainly rhyme.

Surprise

Zach Maxwell, RP, CIN, 22

Maxwell gave up two runs in two innings of relief while striking out three and walking 2. He isn’t on the rundown because he had a particularly excellent outing, he’s here because he’s a mammoth of a man who throws gas. He dominated the top pitch velocity leaderboard in this contest, averaging 98.3 mph and getting up to 100.1. 

His heater is the prize pitch for both its velocity and its ride. He averaged more than 19 inches of induced vertical break on it in 2023, making it a premier bat-missing fastball that generated a 38% whiff rate on Thursday night. He’s squarely a reliever, so the utility is a little diminished in points formats, but his stuff gives him a chance to be a high-leverage guy for Cincinnati and offer some value in SV/HLD leagues.

Dasan Brown, OF, TOR, 22

Brown showed off his 80-grade speed on a 4th inning triple that left the bat at 100 mph and caromed off of center fielder Benny Montgomery in the right-center gap. He was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2019 draft by the Blue Jays and was billed as a freaky athletic, tooled up center fielder with a chance to provide gold glove defense. 

He racked up four home runs and 11 stolen bases in just 38 contests in 2022 but struggled to produce in A+ this year. He profiles as a better real-life player than he is for fantasy.

Damiano Palmegiani, 3B, TOR, 23

Second AFL “hot sheet” appearance for Palmegiani, who had a double, a single, and a walk in 4 plate appearances on Thursday. They left the bat at 99.0 and 59.1 mph, respectively, so a little of him making his own luck and a little of the batted ball luck gods smiling on him in this one.

I wrote on Tuesday that Palmegiani is an interesting name to follow as we learn more about the Blue Jays intentions with Matt Chapman. Should they forego a qualifying offer, or make a qualifying offer that is subsequently declined, Palmegiani could be in the mix for playing time at the hot corner alongside Orelvis Martinez, Davis Schneider, and Cavan Biggio.

Glendale

Bryan Ramos, 3B, CHW, 20

Ramos continues to hit the ball with authority in the Fall League, collecting two more hits. He has been incredible all season despite starting the season injured. In my pre-AFL article I wrote:
Ramos’ 2023 season got started a bit late as he was dealing with a groin strain in the early part of the year. A short rehab stint in Single-A led to him Double-A where he spent 77 games and progressively improved throughout the year. Ramos Finished Double-A with a .272/.369/.457 slash with 14 HR in 77 games.

Ramos saw his 90th percentile exit velocity take a huge jump forward to over 106 mph while posting respectable contact rates. I moved Ramos into my top 100 in my August update, but a strong performance in the AFL likely causes the consensus to jump on board.

If you have the chance to make adds or trades right now in your dynasty league, now is the time to get in on Ramos.

Damon Keith, OF, LAD, 23

Keith spent the 2023 season in High-A in which he hit 11 home runs and slashed .229/.312/.373 but with a career-high strikeout rate of 33.3 percent, which is very concerning. 

On Thursday, he helped Glendale by collecting two hits, both singles, but was not able to come around and score. Keith has a pretty intriguing 6’3”/195 athletic frame and there may be some untapped potential for the 2021 18th-rounder.

Jordan Carr, LHP, MIN, 26

After an incredible showing in High-A this year in which Carr posted a 1.48 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 60.2 innings, he struggled in 10 innings in Double-A. Carr shows good command and missed bats in High-A, posting a 12 percent swinging strike rate and a 25 percent strikeout rate. 

Carr pitched four scoreless innings on Thursday in the desert allowing three hits, zero walks, and striking out one. Carr just turned 26, so he was dominating younger competition in the minors, but he’s one to keep an eye on.

Mesa

Christian Franklin, OF, CHC, 23

Franklin was a late add to the Arizona Fall League after he replaced Alexander Canario. Franklin was once talked about as a potential steal of a draft pick after being a data darling at Arkansas. He hasn’t quite made the impact the Cubs hoped but made progress this year as he made it to Double-A. On the season, he slashed .254/.384/.444 with 12 home runs and 31 extra base hits in 99 games. 

In Thursday’s action, Franklin had a double and a single, driving in a run. He is someone who could use a big Fall League and is one to keep a close eye on. 

Max Muncy, SS, OAK, 21

Muncy continues to hit and be one of the top performers in the first week of AFL action. He collected two more hits and has a 1.181 OPS in the early going.

Muncy spent most of the year as a 20-year-old and the former first-rounder really improved in the second half. Muncy was one of my picks to get in on before the AFL started. I wrote:

Muncy has not lived up to the billing of the first-round selection he was in the 2021 draft, but he has taken small strides forward each season, especially in Double-A this year. For the year, Muncy hit ten home runs and stole 13 bases while slashing .275/.353/.411, but his Double-A numbers were even better.

The contact rates took a huge step forward in the second half, going from 66.5 percent through June 30 to 73 percent from July 1 forward. Muncy may never be a huge fantasy asset, but he could rebuild his stock in Arizona.

John Rhodes, OF, BAL, 23

Rhodes hit his first home run of the Arizona Fall League and walked three times on Thursday night. The 2021 third-rounder gets lost in the fold of all the elite but has pretty big power that he showed in Double-A this year, hitting 17 home runs and posting 42 extra-base hits. Don’t be surprised if ew see Rhodes put on a big power display in the desert.

Caleb Durbin, 2B, NYY, 23

Durbin was traded to the Yankees from the Braves last offseason and has a career best year in which he slashed .304/.395/.427 with four home runs and 36 stolen bases in 69 games. 

He is a smaller frame but has high-end speed and saw his contact skills blossom this year, making contact on an elite 88 percent of pitches he swung at, one of 14 hitters to have a contact rate that high with as many plate appearances as Durbin. His speed is high-end, so he might be a player to keep a close eye on.

Peoria

Jakob Marsee, OF, SD, 22

Ho-hum, the Peorira lineup is just on another level from the rest of the AFL. Marsee collected three hits, including two home runs and continued to proves me wrong as he makes his march to being a high-end prospect. Marsee has high-end contact skills and speed, and mashed all year. His profile certainly fits Arizona well as the hitting environment will allow him to get the most of his power. I will stop questioning his power but the exit velocities still scare me from a future production standpoint.

Graham Pauley, OF, SD, 23

Pauley is on a mission to win Fall League MVP and does not look like he will be denied. He hit his second home run in three games and drove in three runs. I love watching his swing, and coming off a stellar season, the 13th-rounder looks to only improve his stock.

Coming off an awesome year in which he hit 23 home runs and stole 22 bases, the former 13th-rounder is off to a strong start in the Arizona Fall League. Pauley’s performance plus data support him being a top-100 prospect. 

Dominic Keegan, C, TB, 23

Keegan is a fun-catching prospect who had an awesome, under-the-radar career at Vanderbilt and also had a strong year in his first full Minor League season. Keegan slashed .287/.386/.467 with 13 home runs and 37 extra base hits. 

Keegan mashed his first fall league home run and drove in two on Thursday to continue his strong start to the Fall League. Keegan is a strong dynasty league buy.

Ryan Bliss, 2B, SEA, 23

Bliss seems poised to have a shot at Seattle’s lineup early next year. Bliss continues to to hit and had four hits on Thursday, bringing his batting average to .545 and his OPS of 1.303. 

This year, Bliss hit 23 home runs and stole 55 bases. He’s not a 20-home-run bat, but a 15-home-run threat with high stolen base totals at second base with position flexibility is a nice dynasty asset.