Discover more from The Dynasty Dugout
Arizona Fall League Recap: 10/4/23
Arizona Fall League recap from October 4, 2023 from Chris and Beck.
Hey everyone! Hope your offseason is starting off well. Beck and Chris will be with you everyday this Fall Leauge, breaking down everything you need to know from the previous day! Today’s writeup is free and features 22 player writeups. Moving forward, the writeups will be for subscribers so to get an edge in your dynasty league, sub below and get access to all of this:
The Dynasty Dugout is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
-New tools to make dynasty players lives easier
-Top 1,000 prospect and dynasty lists with writeups on every player
-Team top 30s with in-depth scouting reports
-More MILB advanced data
-AFL daily reports
-Dominican Winter League reports
-The Dynasty Draft Guide
-Clegg’s scouting book(my live look reports from the collection of hundreds of players I’ve seen live this year)
-Plus much more!
You will also get access to all of this:
Top-500 Dynasty Rankings (Avg, OBP, Win-now, Rebuild)
Top-500 Prospect Rankings
Top-125 FYPD Rankings
Zac Beck’s Dynasty Points Work
Sheet to show the best available players in your leagues!
In-season daily “Dynasty Digest” bringing you up to date on all you need to know for the dynasty world.
Dynasty Dugout Podcast
Dynasty Trade Calculator and 3-Year $ Values
MILB Statcast Data
Founding Members get:
Live Rankings(see them as Chris updates them)
In-Season video meetings with Chris to discuss teams
I genuinely feel as if the Dynasty Dugout is the best value you can get on the internet for $7 a month. Consider supporting.
Beck has Salt River, Scottsdale, and Surprise covered for you. Chris has Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.
Benny Montgomery, OF, COL, 21
Montgomery was all over the box score last night, notching two hits, working a walk, and stealing two bags. He had the second and third hardest-hit balls of the game (103.5 mph single and 103.4 mph groundout).
He’s one of a number of players in Phoenix this fall looking to rebuild value. The former #8 overall pick has the physical projection (he’s currently listed at an ideal 6’4, 200 lbs) and tools to be an impact player but has yet to put it together on the field. He spent all year at Spokane, a very hitter-friendly environment, and managed just a .251/.336/.370 line – and what concerns me the most is the SLG. He’s still young and has enough pedigree that I’m not totally out. His name is one of the first my eyes gravitate toward when reviewing the previous day’s results.
Sterlin Thompson, 3B/OF, COL, 22
I’ll do my best not to write about Sterlin Thompson every day, but it might be difficult because 1) I am a huge fan of his profile, and 2) he’s been really good all week. It’s the smallest sample imaginable at just three games and 13 plate appearances, but he’s leading the AFL in OPS and hits and is second in runs scored.
He should figure in near the top-100 of my next rank update. He makes a lot of contact and has the benefit of Coors in his future, plus the performance warrants it. He ended 2023 in AA which is where I expect him to start in 2024 with an outside chance of debuting later in the season.
Blake Walston, LHP, ARI, 22
I had to double-check to make sure it wasn’t just me, but I feel like Walston has been around forever. He was drafted 26th overall by the Diamondbacks in 2019 and has been slowly progressing as scheduled outside of the canceled 2020 covid year. His surface numbers have always been a little inflated by way of spending most of his time in Amarillo and Reno, two of the toughest environments to pitch in across all of the minor leagues.
Last night, he went three scoreless with four strikeouts, a walk, and four hits conceded. Despite all the baserunners, his stuff was working well, as he registered a 47% CSW on 43 pitches. Similar to DJ Herz for Scottsdale, none of his offerings are overpowering and his fastball sits low-90s, which gives him very little margin of error to be an impact arm at the next level.
Robert Hassell III, OF, WAS, 22
“No hassle Bob Hassell” had a tough night at the plate. I wrote yesterday that the AFL might be the last chance for him to recoup some of his former prospect shine, and last night’s performance didn’t help. He went 1-5 with a single (91.3 EV) and four strikeouts. He did manage to steal a base, which was the lone bright spot in his evening.
Sonny DiChiara, 1B, LAA, 24
Well, well, well. I don’t know if Sonny caught wind that I had referred to him as a “relative non-prospect”, but he made his presence known with an opposite-field grand slam in the 7th inning. It came off Tanner Kohlhepp and solidified a 5-2 lead for Scottsdale that they would not relinquish.
DiChiara added two more hits, both singles, in what would end up being a 3-5 line that pushed his OPS to 1.400 through 3 contests. My long-term outlook on him hasn’t changed.
DJ Herz, LHP, WAS, 22
Herz was a part of the mid-season trade that sent Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs, and he immediately showed strides with the Nationals. His ERA fell from 4.73 to 2.80, his K rate jumped from 30.3% to 36.1%, and his walk rate fell from 15.0% to 13.6%. That trend continued on Wednesday afternoon with three scoreless innings against Salt River in which he struck out five, walked one, and allowed two singles.
He had a four-pitch mix going, leaning heavily on his sinker and changeup that sat 92 mph and 81 mph respectively. It’s not high-octane stuff, but he’s adept at inducing soft contact and has engineered his arsenal in service of that goal.
Carter Howell, OF, SFG, 24
Howell uncorked the hardest hit ball of the evening for either team in this contest with a 105.9 mph triple in the 5th inning. He added two singles hit at 102.8 mph and 99.0 mph in a night that was full of hard contact. He’s the product of Augustana, a liberal arts school in South Dakota, and was scooped as an undrafted free agent by the Giants in 2022.
This year, he had a respectable .295/.369/.442 line with 10 home runs and 14/20 stolen bases across 551 plate appearances between A and A+. He’s old for those levels, and it’s typically difficult to find fantasy contributors that go undrafted. Howell has the contact and plate discipline chops to not sink him, but it’s hard to see an impact player at the next level in his profile.
Peyton Wilson, 2B, KCR, 23
Wilson was a second-round selection in 2020 as a draft-eligible sophomore out of the University of Alabama. He’s yet to totally find his footing in pro ball, but did spend all of 2023 at AA, where he compiled a respectable .286/.366/.411 slash with six home runs and 19/26 stolen bases over 128 games.
He went 2-3 on Wednesday night with a single and a double. There doesn’t appear to be much appeal for fantasy, but the second base position in Kansas City is far from locked down at present.
Eric Brown Jr., SS, MIL, 22
There wasn’t much offense to speak of at all for Surprise last night, so Brown makes the write-up for contributing a double and two stolen bases in a 1-4 effort. I told you to look out for him on the basepaths, and look at us now!
Brown likely has more intrigue in roto formats than points, but is still worth keeping an eye on as a helium candidate coming off of an injury-shortened year. I’d like to see some extra base impact as well, but we’ll take what we can get while he builds back from a left scapula fracture.
Kendall Williams, RHP, LAD, 23
Every year, the Dodgers send a starting pitcher to the Arizona Fall League who proceeds to really gain value in the dynasty world. This year, that arm just might be Kendall Williams, a former second-round pick in 2019.
Williams went from High-A to Triple-A this year, posting a 3.73 ERA across 79.2 innings pitched. He struck out just 62 batters, but you might can argue the stuff is better than the strikeouts suggested. On Wednesday, Williams struck out three across four innings of one-run ball against Surprise. Keep a close eye on Williams’ performance throughout the Fall League.
Rowdey Jordan, INF/OF, NYM, 24
One thing I love about the AFL is learning about new prospects I was not very familiar with, Jordan being one of them. The Mets prospect hit just 13 home runs and slashed .230/.344/.389 in the regular season, but had two doubles and three RBI in Wednesday’s action.
Yeiner Fernandez, C/INF, LAD, 20
Fernandez spent most of his games catching this year in High-A, but also saw reps at first, second, and third base. In 99 games, he slashed .274/.360/.375 with six home runs and 23 extra-base hits. On Wednesday, Fernandez got the start at shortstop and hit his first home run of the fall league. He is a fun, versatile prospect to keep an eye on.
Kevin Alcantara, OF, CHC, 21
Big day for Kevin Alcantara, who collected three hits, including a mammoth home run that was proceeded by an amazing bat flip. Check out that video below courtesy of the Arizona Fall League. Alcantara has massive power and speed and saw his contact skills increase throughout the year. Easy buy in dynasty leagues for me.
Zach Dezenzo, CI, HOU, 23
Dezenzo got on the board with his first hit of the Fall League with a mammoth home run that we still aren’t sure if it landed. He finally got the chance to show off his high-end power and see how far the ball would travel in Arizona. Dezenzo is a stud, and the hype hasn’t quite caught up. I’m in on him.
Jakob Marsee, OF, SD, 22
As I wrote in my preview and in the first Arizona Fall League writeup earlier in the week, Jakob Marsee is gonna have an awesome Fall League. Well, he continued to look great on Wednesday, collecting two hits and his third stolen base in three games.
He’s coming off a very strong season in which he hit 16 home runs and 46 stolen bases while walking more than he struck out.
As I wrote Monday:
The temptation is to push Marsee very high in fantasy rankings due to the home run and stolen base output while slashing .274/.413/.428 but I’d be careful with the power. Marsee had an average exit velocity south of 84 mph and a 90th percentile ev below 100 mph. But, expect a strong AFL performance from Marsee.
Carson Williams, SS, TB, 20
Williams is a defensive wizard, but also shows good power and speed as shown by his 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases this year despite being 19 years old for the majority of the year.
On Thursday, Williams had a Little League grand slam that was technically scored as a single with two runs driven in. Two throwing errors allowed for Williams to make it all the way around to score. Williams also collected his first stolen base of the Fall League.
Graham Pauley, 2B/OF, SD, 23
Pauley continued to hit, and it feels like he might be on the sheet everyday. It was his first time in three games not having a multi-hit game, but he did get on base twice thanks to a walk. He scored twice and drove in one run.
Coming off an awesome year in which he hit 23 home runs and stole 22 bases, the former 13th-rounder is off to a strong start in the Arizona Fall League. Pauley’s performance plus data support him being a top-100 prospect.
Nathan Martorella, 1B, SD, 22
Another day, two more singles for Nathan Martorella. It was a tale of two halves in 2023, though, as Martorella appeared to be in the midst of a massive breakout. In his first 46 games, Martorella hit seven home runs and was slashing .280/.392/.491 with as many walks than strikeouts. But from August on, he managed just three home runs and slashed .209/.314/.338. It could have been fatigue, but a strong AFL could boost Martorella's confidence.
Harry Ford, C, SEA, 20
Ford is coming off a strong season in which he hit 15 home runs and stole 24 bases. That may not seem like an incredible season, but when you factor in that he is a catcher, it becomes all the more impressive.
Ford walked as much as he struck out last season and posted a .257/.410/.430 slash line, but finished the year on a heater. In his final 30 games, he slashed .302/.438/.560. On Wednesday, he collected a hit and a walk, but the hit was a big one, a three-run home run. Ford is an easy top 50 prospect and maybe even a top 25 prospect if you play in a OBP dynasty league.
Jacob Berry, 3B, MIA, 22
After being taken with the sixth overall pick, Berry has not entirely lived up to the hype. This year, he posted a .233/.284/.388 slash with nine home runs and ten stolen bases. There have always been questions surrounding his power output, and the hit tool has seemingly regressed since his college days.
Berry needs a big AFL and is off to a good start. On Wednesday, he was on base four times which included two singles, a double, and a walk.
Ike Buxton, RHP, MIA, 23
Buxton was the Marlins 15th round pick in 2022 out of Lipscomb University. This season, he fired 77 innings between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A, posting a 2.45 ERA with 73 strikeouts and 43 walks. The command is a bit unpolished and Buxton is more of a pitch-to-weak contact type, but the results were there, especially in his first AFL start.
On Wednesday, he shut down Mesa to the tune of four innings pitched, six strikeouts, two walks, and one earned run. Buxton may be a new name to some, but is one to keep an eye on.