Arizona Fall League Recap: 10/28/25

Mesa Solar Sox

Cole Mathis, 1B, Chicago Cubs

In his junior season at College of Charleston, Mathis mashed 14 home runs and slashed .335/.472/.650. The data was extremely good as he posted a 90 mph average exit velocity and a 108 mph 90th percentile. Not only does Mathis scorch baseballs, but he also makes a ton of contact, having an 89 percent in-zone rate and an 84 percent overall mark. Factor in an elite chase rate of 16 percent, and you are really cooking. The Cubs liked Mathis enough to draft him 54th overall in last summer’s draft.

Mathis missed substantial time during 2025, and his performance when on the field was not great, given he was a college bat in Single-A. He has swung it well in Arizona as he hit his second home run in ten games yesterday, raising his RBI total to 14 already while slashing .364/.463/.545.

The home run yesterday left the bat at 108.6 mph and traveled 425 feet, His bat speed on that swing was an elite 84.3 mph. Mathis had two other batted balls hit above 92 mph as well yesterday, as he reached base four times.

Owen Ayers, C, Chicago Cubs

Ayers was on the same team as Mathis during the regular season in Myrtle Beach. A former 19th-round pick out of Marshall who got just a $50k bonus, Ayers was respectable in his time on the field with Myrtle Beach this year. Hitting six home runs in 273 plate appearances, Ayers also added 14 doubles and five triples. He has a sound approach with respectable contact skills.

He looks the part in the fall league as he continues to mash, and though both his hits yesterday were singles, Ayers wound up reaching base five times in the game. He had a 108 mph and a 109.4 mph exit velocity, and one of his singles was just short of a hard-hit ball at 94.6 mph.

The exit velocities are right in line with what we have seen all fall, as Ayers has an average exit velocity north of 94 mph and a 90th percentile of 109.3 mph. The contact skills have been exceptional as he is running an 86 percent overall contact rate with a 12 percent chase rate. Pair that with a 91 percent in-zone contact rate and a 15 percent barrel rate, and we are cooking.

Ayers looks like a completely different player.

Surprise Saguaros

Jose Corniell, RHP, Texas Rangers

Corniell’s start on Tuesday was not standout by any means, but he was solid, tossing four innings of two-run ball, which came on the Ethan Petry home run. Still, he struck out three batters and walked one while generating eight whiffs.

Four off the whiffs came on the four-seam fastball, which sat 96 mph with 14 inches of IVB and ten inches of arm-side run. The sweeper was efficient, and Corniell had a 75 percent whiff rate on his swings.

Corniell broke out in a big way in 2023, posting a 2.92 ERA across 101.2 innings pitched, with the majority of his starts coming in High-A. Across those innings, he struck out 119 batters and walked just 31 while posting a strike rate north of 67 percent. He missed the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John. Returning to the mound in 2025, Corniell pitched just 38 innings, but posted a 1.89 ERA while striking out 28 percent of hitters between Double-A and Triple-A.

Winston Santos, RHP, Texas Rangers

After signing with the Rangers in July of 2019, Santos's pro debut was set back until 2021 due to the pandemic. It was a slow burn for Santos, who was rather good in Single-A in 2022 but took a big step back in 2023 in High-A. The 2024 season was a massive breakout, though, as Santos threw 110.1 innings between High-A and Double-A, having a 3.67 ERA with 138 strikeouts to 34 walks.

Santos tossed just 17 innings during the 2025 regular season due to a stress reaction in his back. Santos’s fastball velocity improved throughout the 2024 season. Early in the season, he sat 94-96, but for the year, he averaged between 96 and 97 with impressive IVB from a 5’7” release height. The 17 inches of IVB is paired with good horizontal movement, helping create strong whiff rates. In the fall league, Santos has been working in the 96 mph range and generated three whiffs yesterday.

The slider began to play exceptionally well as he completely changed from throwing a sweeper in the low 80s to a gyro slider that averaged 85 mph. He located it well, and it played well off his fastball. There is a changeup in the profile, but it is currently inconsistent, sitting 86-89 mph. The changeup generated three whiffs on four swings yesterday.

Salt River Rafters

David Mershon, SS, LAA (2-4, R, K, SB)

I mean no offense to David Mershon — truly, this has little to do with him in particular — but I’ve seen enough of him to last a lifetime. Again, not his choice, but this is his second tour of duty in the Fall League, and he often hits atop the lineup, meaning it’s possible to see five or six of his plate appearances in a night. Mershon is conspicuous on a baseball diamond in the way Alfredo Duno is not; he’s 5-foot-7 and 175 pounds, making him one of the smallest players on the field at any given moment. He plays with the throttle wide open and often finds ways to impact the game that aren’t reliant on brute strength — he’s discerning at the plate and has walked more than he’s struck out thus far, and he’s willing to take an extra base when possible. He finished the regular season with 27 stolen bases in 31 attempts and has five swipes without being caught in 10 AFL games. He may not be a particularly intriguing fantasy option, but rooting for him is easy.

Charlie Condon, 1B, COL (2-4, RBI, K)

BREAKING: Charlie Condon is having a great AFL. We’ve written about it a few times, but it’s the closest I’ve seen him come to being the guy the Rockies drafted third overall in 2024. He has 20 hits in 14 games, including an extra-base hit of each variety, and he’s hitting the ball hard consistently. His two singles on Tuesday left the bat at 97.6 and 104.6 mph, and he’s had a few batted balls narrowly miss getting out of the stadium. I’m encouraged, for certain, but a lot of his future hinges on his ability to slug consistently. We haven’t seen it yet in his pro tenure, but I think it’s possible he carries his fall performance into the 2026 regular season.

Glendale Desert Dogs

Nacho Alvarez Jr., 3B, Atlanta Braves (2-4, 2B, BB)

What are you doing here, Nacho? It’s mostly a rhetorical question — he’s at the AFL to continue working on his third base defense. Why exactly the Braves are interested in him playing third is a second, more mysterious question. He’s also participating to get additional at-bats following a wrist injury that stole time from him during the regular season. He’s playing fine, hitting his way to a .256/.429/.349 slash with plenty of walks but an absence of thump; he’s managed four doubles in 12 games but has not yet collected a home run. I think it’s emblematic of the sort of player he can be at the big league level: a utility infielder with middling batting average and slug in an offense that should be much improved year-over-year with a little better injury luck. He went 2-for-4 with a double and a walk on Tuesday.

Ryan Galanie, 1B, Chicago White Sox (2-4, R, 3 RBI, BB)

The White Sox sent a very interesting group to the AFL. Hagen Smith, their 2024 first-round pick, and Braden Montgomery, Boston’s first-rounder in the same draft, are getting reps after struggling with command and injury, respectively. They also sent Ryan Galanie, a 25-year-old first baseman taken in the 13th round in 2023. He doesn’t strike out, doesn’t walk, and does not hit for much power in games, which makes him sort of antithetical to the first base mold of the last decade. He’s had a rough go through 11 games, but had a nice night on Tuesday with a pair of knocks and three RBI. I’m pretty sure his mom or sister won a raffle at Sloan Park while I was in attendance two Fridays ago, so not all is lost.

Peoria Javelinas

Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Baltimore Orioles (2-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, R, SB)

Bradfield was one of the most impressive players during my eight-day scouting trip. He’s a walking highlight reel in center field and can make anything happen on the basepaths — that’s not new — but he was gearing to do damage to the pull-side and was scalding the ball much more than anticipated. That was his modus operandi on Tuesday as three of his four true batted ball events (one was a bunt, doesn’t count) were to the right and two of them went for doubles. He logged exit velocities of 94.5 mph (fielder’s choice), 96.1 mph (double), 96.9 mph (groundout), and 102.1 mph (double). For good measure, he added his 14th stolen base in 12 games.

Ethan Anderson, C, Baltimore Orioles (2-5, 2B, 2 K)

If you knew nothing about the field in this year’s circuit and judged only by build, Anderson would be among the most intriguing players in the crop. While he’s listed at 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, I’d take the over on both. It makes for an odd sight when he’s behind the plate — he regularly towers over the home plate ump when he unfurls from his crouch — and may be more fitting at first base. His arm is better suited for a position less predicated on throwing ability, too, so a shift may be in order. He’s having a strong AFL, slashing .386/.451/.568 with another two knocks on Tuesday, but he may not hit for enough power to justify a move. It’s a real catch-22 that leaves him in a positional liminal space.

Charlie Pagliarini, OF, Seattle Mariners (1-3, 3B, R, BB, K)

Pagliarini has been on the rundown several times, which is likely to happen when you hit the ball as hard (he topped the exit velocity leaderboard for Tuesday) and perform as well as he has (.333/.419/.556). He’s another one who has the look of a stellar ballplayer but hasn’t quite performed to his physical ability — at least on the surface. His bat-to-ball has hindered him throughout his minor league career and has contributed to his gaudy strikeout rates (32.2% career K-rate), and without an adjustment that allows him to get the bat on the ball with regularity, he’s a risk to stagnate upon reaching Double-A. He’s managed to walk enough such that his wRC+ outputs are above average, but he’ll need to cut some swing-and-miss to find success as he climbs.

Scottsdale Scorpions

Max Anderson, INF, Detroit Tigers

Anderson’s regular-season breakout has carried over into the AFL, where he continues to swing a hot bat. Hitting 19 home runs and driving in 88, Anderson slashed a smooth .296/.350/.478 during the regular season. With a strong contact-oriented profile, Anderson experienced a significant leap in power this year, which completely changes the future outlook. If suddenly projects to be a 20-home run second baseman with a strong feel for contact, he could be a top 100 prospect.

Last night, Anderson hit his fourth AFL home run on a 104 mph shot. He also added two more batted balls at 106 and 106.4 mph. Anderson is hitting the cover off the ball in Arizona, having a 97.5 mph exit velocity and a 107 mph 90th percentile. The contact skills look good, and the chase rate checks in at 21 percent.

Anderson is not a super flashy player, but one that is going to be a very good second baseman for a long time at the Major League level.

Ethan Petry, OF, Washington Nationals

If you have been waiting for Petry to get going in Arizona, you can thank me for his home run. I dropped him in our AFL fantasy league that is put on by Nate Handy. No less than 12 hours after I dropped him, he blasted a 422-foot home run that left the bat at 112.4 mph.

Petry chased down the University of South Carolina home run record this year before unfortunately going down with an injury that ended his season early. After blasting 23 home runs during his freshman season, including a massive shot off Paul Skenes, Petry continued to hit every season.

From an underlying data standpoint, Petry put together one of his best seasons in 2025. His 110 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was one of the best marks in college baseball, and Petry had a 58 percent hard-hit rate and a 94.5 mph average exit velocity.

The contact rates jumped as well. While the chase rate of 29 percent is higher than we would like to see, his 73 percent zone swing rate was very impressive and helps counteract the chase. The zone contact rate for Petry sat near 84 percent with an overall mark at 73 percent.

There is big power upside and Petry has made tangible improvements in the outfield which is huge for his development. Can he hit enough? That is still to be determined.