Arizona Fall League Recap: 10/16/2026

Salt River Rafters (Beck)

Kyle DeBarge, 2B, Minnesota Twins (4-4, 2B, BB, 3 R, 2 RBI)

DeBarge has been one of the least touted “first round” picks of the last few years (he went 33rd overall among the compensation round A selections). Much of that had to do with his stature — at just 5-foot-9, 175 lbs, there’s little projection remaining — and that he didn’t come from a baseball powerhouse. Over three years (800 plate appearances), DeBarge managed a .339/.406/.554 slash with 31 home runs and 44 stolen bases.

Professional baseball has not been as prosperous. He finished the 2025 and 2026 seasons with a wRC+ of 107 and 76, respectively, and the 40-grade power he showcased at Louisiana Lafayette is playing down with wood. The deterioration of his hit tool can’t be fully explained by BABIP, either, and his future projection is murky. He finished Thursday’s slate with a perfect night at the dish, reaching base in all five plate appearances.

Teo Banks, OF, Washington Nationals (3-5, 2B, SB)

Banks had a little bit of everything going for him on Tuesday. He raised his fall batting average to .400 and his OPS to .952 with a three-hit performance that included a double. As written previously, he’s a great athlete with a chance to redeem himself with a strong AFL campaign, but the bat will need to shine for him to get any real recognition.

Peoria Javelinas (Beck)

Carlos Sanchez, SS, Cincinnati Reds (2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI)

Sanchez, a 2022 International Signee for $70K, blasted a 107.9 MPH home run in the bottom of the 7th inning on Thursday. Save for the exit velocity, it wasn’t an unfamiliar occurrence for him. His biggest unlock this year was game power — he doubled his over-the-fence output from 2025 — and finished with a career-best slugging percentage. He’s struggled with bat-to-ball and has posted borderline strikeout rates throughout his minor league career, but there is a path to viability should he continue to fill out and shorten his swing.

Alex McCoy, OF, San Diego Padres (1-4, HR)

McCoy hit a baseball 118.2 MPH yesterday. Beyond that, he’s been a solid performer across four levels in his two-year professional career. He’s a staggering 6-foot-5, 260 lbs (certainly passes the bus test) and has posted exit velocity markers that are double-plus or better. Blasts like yesterday’s will keep his name on the radar, which makes him a player to keep tabs on for a scoop-and-flip maneuver in deep fantasy leagues.

Mesa Solar Sox (Rhys)

Arjun Nimmala, SS, Los Angeles Angels (4/5 2 3B 2B)

Arjun Nimmala was a homer away from a cycle in this one, including hitting a single and a double off of Jarlin Susana’s heater. 

Nimmala had himself a day, he had four hits, and four hard hit batted balls, headlined by two 104 mph batted balls that turned into one of his triples and his lone double. 

Nimmala has a real chance to be a contributor for the Angels next year, it’s just a question of when. He is their top prospect, and frankly given how things are going I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw one of those pre-debut extensions with him because he is the exact sort of prospect I would want to be locking down some cost-certainty if I were the Angels. A shortstop who could hit 25+ homers and steal 10-15 bags a year has a lot of value. I think I am gonna bump Nimmala up my rankings because what is really keeping him from being a top 25 prospect in the sport?

Peyton Olejnik, RHP, Los Angeles Angels (3 IP/3 H/3 ER/1 BB/5 K)

Seven swings and misses is not a bad day at the office for someone who has to shop at the big and tall store in Peyton Olejnik. Most of those came off the fastball, which topped out at 94 in this outing. 

Peyton Olejnik really gets down the mound, generating over 7 feet of extension, which when you factor in he is listed at 6’11” is really solid. It allows everything to play up as well as the fact that he releases the ball from a sub 6’0” release point. His slider is a hellacious pitch as he averages about 13 inches of horizontal break and can get as high as 19 inches of sweep. 

Ole gets some serious movement on his pitches, and his release traits are pretty interesting. I think he throws enough strikes to remain a starter. He gets a decent amount of ground-balls as well which with his ability to generate a modest amount of whiffs with the slider there is a lot to like here as a potential “sleeper.”

Surprise Saguaros (Chris)

Zion Rose, OF, Kansas City Royals (1/4 HR)

Rose has not gotten off to a hot start to his AFL debut, but it has been quite a long season for him since starting his college season in February, to being drafted in July, and then spending the rest of the season in High-A. Yesterday, Rose blasted a 103 mph home run off a Zander Mueth slider, which hopefully will be a catalyst for him moving forward.

At Louisville this year, Rose ran an 88 percent zone contact rate with an overall mark at 83 percent. He chased at just a 20 percent clip. Rose ran a 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and topped out at 111 mph. He will need to pull more balls in the air, but there is solid power in the profile.

Rose is a premium athlete, which led him to move off the catcher position and play in the outfield where he clocks plus run times. The hit tool carries the profile, but Rose is capable of being a 20 home run hitter who steals plenty of bags.

Welbyn Francisca, SS, Cleveland Guardians (3/4 3B)

Francisca continues to swing it exceptionally well and clocked in with another three-hit performance on Thursday, including a triple. Francisca had two batted balls north of 103.4 mph and another at 90 mph. He has arguably been the best hitter in the AFL to this point as he is hitting .591 with a 1.667 OPS, which builds off an impressive end to the season.

The underlying power metrics have taken a notable leap forward this year as his 90th percentile exit velocity increased close to 104 mph, and the contact rates are respectable. While the contact has trended in the wrong direction compared to previous seasons, the power trade-off has been worth it.

Francisca has done a good job of pulling the ball in the air and has shown good aggression on pitches in the zone and over the heart of the plate. The chase rate is a bit high at 30 percent, but it works with the profile overall.

Paxton Kling, OF, Texas Rangers (3/5 BB)

Kling was selected in the seventh round of the 2025 MLB Draft and immediately hit the ground running with the Rangers. This year he started out strong again, but a wrist injury ended his season shortly after his promotion to Double-A.

He has exceptional speed, and it shows on the basepaths and in the field. He stole 40 bases in 401 plate appearances. While the power is not there, he has shown flashes and had seven home runs, a triple, and 15 doubles this year.

Kling collected three hits on Thursday, all singles but certainly made his impact on the Surprise lineup in their big win. He is a player to keep an eye on.

Justin Lamkin, LHP, Kansas City Royals (4 IP/1 H/1 ER/2 BB/3 K)

In 39.2 innings, Lamkin struck out 35 percent of batters while walking just 9.2 percent of hitters. He posted an impressive 2.04 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, splitting time between A+/AA. He looked like he was breaking out before a shoulder injury sidelined him. But returning to Arizona, he looks the part. Yesterday he struck out three and had eight whiffs in four strong innings of work.

The fastball velocity was sitting around 92 mph.. Throwing from a higher 6’5” release height, Lamkin creates below-average IVB, but around 11-12 inches of arm-side movement.

Lamkin’s slider is a dominant swing-and-miss pitch, sitting in the lower-80s. The changeup has 15 inches of fade, having around 7-8 mph of separation from the fastball. The curveball works in the upper-70s with more depth and not much horizontal movement.

Command is the name of the game here, but the stuff has improved as well, and Lamkin has a strong arsenal.

Glendale Desert Dogs (Chris)

Tate Southisene, SS, Atlanta Braves (2/3 2B 2 BB SB)

Southisene had Glendale’s only multi-hit performance on the day despite them scoring eight runs. He was also one of just three extra base hits on the day. Southisene smoked a double at 104 mph off Justin Lamkin and also added a sixth inning single off Hiro Wyatt that left the bat at 94 mph.

After making his debut after being drafted in 2025 and striking out in 41 percent of his plate appearances, the lack of hype seemed justified as Southisene looked lost. This year, he looks like a different ballplayer and one to invest in. The approach has changed dramatically, and Southisene has seen a rise of 13 percent in his contact rate to 74 percent. The in-zone contact rate of 83 percent was fine and Southisene also ran a chase rate around 22 percent.

The power breakout was legit as well as he posted a 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and a 50 percent hard-hit rate. Getting hit by a pitch on the wrist caused his season to end in July, just after getting promoted to Double-A. It looks like he is fully healthy now, though.

Easton Carmichael, C, Pittsburgh Pirates (1/3 2B)

Carmichael was one of the few bright spots for Glendale, despite the team scoring eight runs. He smoked a 103.2 mph double off Hiro Wyatt in the fifth inning. It has been a very slow start to the Fall League for Carmichael, but he did have a successful regular season.

Carmichael put together an impressive season between High-A and Double-A. He wound up hitting 20 home runs with 22 doubles and drove in 92 runs in 484 plate appearances.

The bat speed and exit velocity data have improved, but Carmichael has also done a great job making contact. He ran an impressive 89 percent zone contact rate and an overall mark near 80 percent. Carmichael’s carrying tools are the defense, though.

Scottsdale Scorpions (Rhys)

Dakota Jordan, DH, San Francisco Giants (2/4 2B)

Dakota Jordan is a super fun and tooled up athlete, with some hit tool concern. I once had a scout tell me, he swings and misses through batting practice pitches. But the tools are what is exciting here.

Jordan with a 105 mph batted ball event on his single, shows the sort of power the former Mississippi State hitter has. He isn’t making as much contact as one would like in the fall league, but it is only a handful of games. The power here is easily plus power, and he pairs that with plus speed.

Jordan should make his debut with the Giants next year, where he can show off some intriguing power and speed. The hit tool does mean he will have some peaks and valleys in his batting average and approach. There is slightly more value here with him in daily moves leagues, because he can win a matchup with his power speed, but also he can be a real batting average drain, which would make me slightly concerned with him in a weekly moves league.

Juan Bello, RHP, Houston Astros (2 IP/2 H/2 ER/0 BB/5K)

I am not the biggest Juan Bello guy; I have concerns about a guy whose velo tops out at 90ish mph, but he has a disgusting slider, and if a jump in stuff ever happens with Juan Bello, that would do wonders.

Bello came over to the Astros in the Ryan Pressly trade they made with the Chicago Cubs. We didn't see Bello in 2026 as he was recovering from an injury, but he has looked good thus far in Arizona. It’s a slider-heavy profile, and there are some questions about just how much one pitch can carry a profile if he is a starter. But if we see a jump up in velocity, that could do wonders. It’s a great slider that averages 11 inches of horizontal break with 5 inches of IVB from a sub-6’0” release point. His fastball shape is also solid with 16 inches of IVB and 4 inches of horizontal break from the same release point.

I know some of you play in those crazy deep leagues, and in those formats, Bello might have some appeal as a potential back-end starter.