Arizona Fall League + LIDOM Recap: October 19, 2024
Chris and Beck break down everything you need to know from the previous days' Arizona Fall League action.
Arizona Fall League and Lidom Recap: 10/19/24
LIDOM
Jordan Lawlar blasted his second home run in three days. Nasim Nunez collected two doubles. Liover Peguero had two hits. Not a lot to note as I did not get a chance to watch any games or highlights or LIDOM, but those three players stood out to me in the box scores as relevant hitters to note.
Mesa (Chris)
Xavier Isaac, 1B, TB, 20
Isaac performed while facing a pretty solid group of arms on Friday. With Andrew Painter starting the game, Isaac grounded out in his at-bat against a 98 mph fastball, but he also faced several arms who threw heat in Griff McGarry and Luis Mey.
His second trip to the plate ended in a double that Isaac smoked down with a 106 mph exit velocity. His third time up, he singled on a bloop to right-center. A ninth innings fly out to the opposite field in the ninth came on a 99 mph fastball from Mey.
Isaac had drastic splits in the season that coincided with injury. He looks much better in Arizona, slashing .292/.414/.625 with two home runs and doubles a piece. Something to watch out for is his 41 percent strikeout rate. With pretty poor contact rates in the season, there are some worries regarding Isaac and his bat-to-ball.
Jonathon Long, 1B, CHC, 22
Hello, its Jonathon Long again, who makes the sheet nearly everyday. Out to prove his 2024 breakout season was no fluke, the hot performance continued as Long homered on a ball that traveled 436 feet in the eighth inning. He also nearly collected a hit on Andrew Painter, which ended in a 284-foot fly out. The hardest hit ball of the night for Long checked in on a 109.3 mph ground out.
During the regular season, Long enjoyed a massive breakout in 2024 between High-A and Double-A, posting a .283/.391/.461 slash with 17 home runs and 21 doubles.
Putting up solid exit velocities, Long has shown the ability to get the ball in the air, with a 61 percent air percentage. The biggest flaw is that Long needs to pull the ball more. In Double-A, the pull rate was just 24.6 percent, something we would like to see improved. The 90th percentile exit velocity of 105 mph is above-average and he is capable of getting to home run power.
Brooks Brannon, C, BOS, 20
Brannon’s impressive fall league continues as he added two more hits to the ledger, giving him his third multi-hit game of the week. They were just two singles, but both smoked line drives with exit velocities of 102.4 and 110.8 mph, giving Brannon the hardest-hit ball in the Mesa-Glendale game.
Now, with up to ten hits in 31 trips to the plate, Brannon has just one double and home run a piece, but the slash is .357/.419/.500 remains impressive. With an 86 percent in-zone contact rate and a 92 mph average exit velocity, Brannon is making the most of his time in Arizona.
Brannon was a 2022 ninth-round prep bat who received an over-slot $712k bonus. Much of his career has been riddled with injury, and this year in Single-A, a knee injury limited him to just 54 games. The slash line sat at .251/.326/.396 with six home runs and 16 extra-base hits.
Scottsdale (Chris)
Thayron Liranzo, C, DET, 21
On the surface, Liranzo did not have a great 2024, but he still has immense power and impact with the bat. His contact rates have improved this year, and he does not expand the zone often. The numbers have jumped off the page since being traded to Detroit. In 26 games with West Michigan, Detroit’s High-A affiliate, Liranzo posted a ..315/.470/.562 slash with five home runs.
Considering he just turned 21 years old, the power is immense, and that is nothing new. After bashing 24 home runs in 2023, the home run total has taken a step back this year, but the exit velocities have actually improved substantially.
His 90th percentile exit velocity sits north of 108 mph, one of the top marks in all of professional baseball. He has quite a few batted balls north of 110 mph and the hard-hit rate which is batted balls north of 95 mph is north of 50 percent.
Liranzo had a huge game on Friday night, collecting three hits, which included two doubles. Hes put up an impressive fall league so far, now having a .500 batting average with a 1.494 smuggling percentage. The contact has looked good so far and Liranzo has consistently hit the ball hard.
Josue Briceño, C/1B, DET, 20
At this point, Briceño has pretty much made the AFL recap sheet every day. The power keeps coming from the 20-year-old as he mashed his fifth home run in the fall league and added two more hits in singles. In 31 trips to the plate, Briceño now has five home runs and a triple while slashing .448/.484/1.158.
As one of the youngest players in Arizona this fall, Briceño’s performance has been nothing short of impressive. The contact has continually improved each game. The power and bat speed have been evident. Briceño looks to me like a top-100 prospect for sure.
Peyton Graham, INF, DET, 23
We are making it a Detroit Tigers trifecta for Scottsdale today as eight of the their 12 hits came between Tigers hitters and every run scored was contributed by them either drivcing in someone or scoring.
Graham has lost quite a bit of shine since he was drafted in the second round of the 2022 draft. Missing time due to injury, Graham got 240 plate appearances, mostly all in High-A, where he slashed .202/.354/.275 with two home runs. On Friday, Graham contributed to the game with a double and a triple, driving in a run and scoring once himself.
Surprise (Chris)
Milan Tolentino, 2B, CLE, 22
Tolentino has been one of the more steady producers in all fall, and while the numbers are not flashy, he has consistently gotten on base and stolen bases at a high clip. He stole his sixth base of the fall on Friday, giving him the sole AFL lead, and he has walked more often than he has stuck out. He has just one extra-base hit, but when he gets on first, Tolentino is a threat to steal. He has a strong 82 percent contact rate, which sits near 95 percent in-zone in the AFL.
Spending the year in Double-A, Tolentino put up a rather pedestrian slash of .241/.313/.370 with just nine home runs, but he did steal 17 bases and had 31 extra-base hits.
Creed Willems, C/1B, BAL, 21
Willems does it again, though this time it was with his legs as he showed his blazing speed and posted his first triple of the fall. It was his only hit of the day and but he reached a second time via walk. His slash is impressive .345/.424/.586 in the AFL.
The lack of a true position is concerning for Willems's long-term outlook, but there is no denying he can hit. The fact that he has shown up in nearly every AFL recap this fall should tell you something. During the regular season, Willems hit 17 home runs with 21 doubles while slashing .243/.322/.462.
Salt River (Beck)
Tommy Troy, 2B, ARI, 22
He’s the hottest hitter in the AFL! He followed up Thursday’s three-hit, nine total base performance with another four knocks on Friday, including a double and a 109.0 mph single. He dealt with injury to end last year and missed significant time with a strained hamstring in 2023, but I like what I’m seeing in fall competition thus far. His data and baseball card stats from the regular season doesn’t jump off the page, but there’s a fair bit of pedigree and I’m not typically quick to write off college players of his caliber.
Kala’i Rosario, OF, MIN, 22
Rosario registered a 112.7 mph EV on a single in Friday’s bout, ultimately finishing 3-for-5 with two runs, an RBI, and a strikeout. I know he can hit the ball hard, I’d just like to see him connect with more regularity. He struck out in 30.4% of all plate appearances during the regular season and 29.6% the year prior, which makes his profile rather tenuous. He finished the year with 67 games at Double-A, and there’s a shot he gets playing time in Minneapolis toward the end of the 2025 season.
Kristian Robinson, OF, ARI, 23
I feel like I’ve written about Robinson every day this week while simultaneously warning about the massive strikeout issue in his profile that is likely to preclude him from returning fantasy value in the future. He’s been hot and continued his multi-game tear with a 2-for-4 night that included a double, two runs scored, two RBIs, and a stolen base. It’s nice to see him back and playing well, but I’m a skeptic.
Robert Hassell III, OF, WSH, 23
Chris and I are shuffling team assignments every week and I’m particularly grateful to move on from covering Salt River. Ironically they have my favorite park in the circuit – partially because they’re one of the two that have Hawkeye – but there’s only so much left to say about Robert Hassell. It’s his third time in the fall league and he’s playing like it; he’s currently fifth in OPS, tied for second in doubles, and has only struck out three times in six games. He’s someone I’ve seen a lot in person, and while he often looks the part the performance hasn’t matched in several years now. He pushed his way to Triple-A to close the year and compiled a .125/.188/.156 line across 17 games after putting together a reasonable 60-game sample at Double-A. I don’t think he’ll have the juice to return fantasy value despite looking quite good in a forgiving hitter’s environment. He went 2-for-5 with a double, a triple, three RBIs, and a run scored against Peoria yesterday.
Caleb Durbin, INF, NYY, 24
Durbin made his way to New York from Atlanta by way of the Lucas Luetge trade in 2023 and had a terrific AFL shortly thereafter. He was one of my favorite players to watch – he’s short and stout but plays with the throttle wide open – and I’m genuinely looking forward to watching him again this year. His line thus far isn’t as prolific (Nate Handy is in my ear saying yet over and over again), but I don’t think it matters all that much. The 24-year-old had a solid campaign primarily in Triple-A where he finished with 10 home runs in 375 PAs, more walks than strikeouts (47 to 37), and 31 swipes in 35 attempts and he figures to factor into the infield picture in the Bronx sooner rather than later. He was 1-for-5 with his first home run of the circuit on Friday.
Peoria (Beck)
Andrew Pintar, OF, MIA, 23
It’s my first time writing about Pintar this year and it comes on the back of a 3-for-5 game against Salt River that included two doubles, two runs scored, and a stolen base. He was a fifth rounder out of BYU in the 2022 draft and has since been traded to Miami as part of the return for AJ Puk and pushed his way to Double-A. He had a fine season split between High- and Double-A, ultimately finishing with a .255/.353/.394 line, though he struggled immensely in 43 games after promotion. He’s 6-foot-1 and athletic enough to man center field and has some history as an up-the-middle defender on the dirt, and while he’s been quiet thus far in the AFL, he’s a player I’m keen to see in person.
Colt Emerson, SS, SEA, 19
Emerson missed time in the regular season with two different injuries, an oblique strain in April and a fractured foot in May, that held him out for roughly eight weeks cumulatively. When he was healthy he had a ho-hum year that saw him play extremely well with Modesto (.293/.440/.427 over 40 games) and struggle a bit once with Everett (.225/.331/.317 over 29 games), which made him a great candidate for extra time against better competition. I don’t have many questions remaining about his ability to put bat on ball and make sound swing decisions, but how much game power he’ll get to remains an open question after he managed just four home runs over 70 games in the regular season. He put the ball on the ground quite a bit this year, tallying a 52.8% groundball rate in Single-A and a 48.3% mark in High-A, but the hope is that he’ll be able to elevate with more regularity as he matures into his body. He’s a heavy doubles hitter at present and added another yesterday in a 2-for-5 night that extended his AFL lead to eight.
Kemp Alderman, OF, MIA, 22
Second day in a row for Alderman and it’s for one very big reason: he hit a home run and it left the bat at 119.5 mph. His power is very real and he didn’t strike out as much as you might think given his 6-foot-2, 250-pound frame. I said yesterday I can think of profiles worse to invest in than a guy who has hit a baseball 116.8 mph – that figure just went up.
Glendale (Beck)
Tyler Callihan, 2B, CIN, 24
Callihan finished his 2024 campaign with a 4-game vignette at Triple-A after the 2019 third-rounder put together a .271/.345/.413 line across 69 games with Chattanooga. The primary issue with Callihan is that there are so many of him vying for attention in Cincinnati, which may make him an extraneous piece down the line. Letting other teams see him in the AFL could be a way of tacitly shopping him around, or it could be simply giving him extra time and looks to ready him for a potential debut in 2025. In any event he’s played well over the early stretch, walking more than he’s struck out and posting a near-.500 OBP in his first five games. He was 3-for-5 with a double, a run, and an RBI in Friday’s game.
Tim Elko, 1B, CHW, 24
Welcome back to the rundown, Tim Elko. He’s been a monster this AFL and currently sits behind just Kemp Alderman and Josue Briceño for the league lead in home runs after adding his third on Friday. He also deposited a hard-hit double, giving him two hits for the evening on balls struck over 100 mph. That said, he’s a 25-year-old right/right first baseman, so the bar for impressing in the AFL is almost impossibly high. He finished the year with a strong 48-game sample in Triple-A and could vie for playing time on an almost impossibly bad White Sox roster early in 2025.
Andrew Painter, RHP, PHI, 21
Throw the stats out, y’all. They don’t matter one bit. What’s important is that Painter is back, his stuff looks good, and he’s starting to build back up. He threw five different pitches in this outing – his four-seam fastball sat 96.8 mph, his curveball generated a 33% whiff rate and a 50% CSW (granted he only threw it four times, but I’m here to drive the hype train not traffick in objective reality), and he mixed in a slider, a cutter, and a changeup, though sparingly. Tommy John is not a riskless surgery and a lot remains to be seen, but his first two outings have been encouraging.