Arizona Fall League + LIDOM Recap: October 17, 2024
Chris and Beck break down everything you need to know from the previous days' Arizona Fall League action.
With two games full of offensive firepower, the Salt River and Scottsdale had a rare pitcher duel with some good performances all around. LIDOM(Dominican Winter League) also kicked off so we have some players to discuss there as well.
Beck and I have everything you need to know covered!
Arizona Fall League and Lidom Recap: 10/17/24
LIDOM
Jordan Lawlar, SS, ARI, 22
Lawlar elected to go to the Dominican Republic this fall/winter to make up for lost time during the regular season. His first game showcased the kind of talent that we want to see as he collected three hits, including a home run and ended the day a triple shy of the cycle.
It was a strong start to LIDOM for Lawlar, who could use a healthy winter heading into 2025 and also the chance to regain some confidence. I would not be shocked if he won league MVP given he is one of the most talented players there.
Ronny Simon, INF, TB, 24
Simon loves LIDOM. A consistent regular on my report last year, Simon is back and got off to a hot start in 2024, collecting a single and a triple in his first game back in the Dominican. Simon spent 2024 in Triple-A Durham, where he slashed a strong .283/.356/.429 with ten home runs and 44 extra-base hits while stealing 20. He looks like a future Rays utility player.
Mesa (Chris)
Moises Ballesteros, C, CHC, 20
Mo Baller keeps balling, reaching base three times on Wednesday via a walk, double, and home run. He pushed his batting average up to .423 for the fall with a 1.198 OPS. There is no denying that his bat will play.
The biggest concern is the catching ability. Ballesteros had a throwing error and allowed four stolen bases in the contest. There have been questions surrounding his ability to stick behind the dish for a while now, and I dont think those have eased up. The next question is, where does he play in the field? At 5’7”, Ballesteros would become the shortest first baseman in MLB by four inches, with Ty France and Josh Naylor checking in at 5’11”.
Ballesteros has strong contact skills and some sneaky good power. If he can maintain catcher eligibility, it would go a long way for his dynasty value.
Brooks Brannon, C, BOS, 20
Brannon was a 2022 ninth-round prep bat who received an over-slot $712k bonus. Much of his career has been riddled with injury, and this year in Single-A, a knee injury limited him to just 54 games. The slash line sat at .251/.326/.396 with six home runs and 16 extra-base hits.
He turned in a strong performance on Wednesday, mashing a home run and adding a single. It was Brannon’s first home run of the fall league, as he is now slashing .250/.286/.520 in 21 trips to the plate.
Niko Kavadas, 1B, LAA, 25
Kavadas is one of the older players in the AFL, set to turn 26 by the end of October, and one of the few with MLB experience under his belt. Having a big power, Kavadas seems a likely candidate to participate in the AFL home run derby. He mashed his first AFL home run on Wednesday night and reached base a second time via walk. In 21 plate appearances, Kavadas has a .412/.476/.647 slash line so far in the Arizona Fall League.
Scottsdale (Chris)
Lazaro Estrada, RHP, TOR, 25
Estrada is one of my favorite arms in the AFL, and even though he is on the older side, it does not take away from the stuff. Firing 2.2 scoreless innings, Estrada did walk three batters, but he also struck out six with seven whiffs. He is up to 5.2 innings in the fall league and has allowed just one earned run with eight strikeouts.
During the regular season, Estrada split time between High-A and Double-A, throwing 98.1 innings with a 3.29 ERA. He struck out 113 batters and walked 33. Interestingly, his walk rate fluctuated heavily, and he ended the year at a rate of north of eight percent because the strike rates themselves were strong. Throwing strikes at a plus 67 percent clip, Estrada also posted a swinging strike rate at a solid 14.4 percent.
Estrada has a mid-90s fastball with plus riding action from a 5’8” release height. Averaging near 18 inches of IVB, where the average is 15.5 inches from that release, Estrada also has good horizontal movement that plays with high spin rates. The mid-80s slider has good carry with a shorter horizontal movement pattern. Estrada will mix a changeup in a similar velocity band to the slider on occasion that has a ton of arm-side movement.
Josue Briceño, C/1B, DET, 20
Briceño is quickly establishing himself as one of the best hitters in the AFL. He collected three hits, including a home run on Wednesday, putting him just one off the AFL lead with four home runs. He has ten hits for an impressive .417/.462/1.000 slash line.
As one of the youngest players in Arizona this fall, Briceño’s performance has been nothing short of impressive. Strikeouts have been the biggest concern as he has seven in 24 trips to the plate, but when Briceño connects, he does damage. The power and bat speed have been evident. Despite the strikeouts, the contact rate has been a manageable 73 percent in all AFL, and in Hawkeye-tracked games, Briceño has made contact on 90 percent of pitches in the zone.
Sammy Siani, OF, PIT, 23
Siani is a former first-round pick in 2019 but has failed to live up to the hype over the years. Spending most of 2024 in Double-A Altoona, Siani slashed .265/.338/.401 with nine home runs and 33 extra-base hits.
After collecting two singles on Wednesday, he pushed his AFL batting average up to .412 and has a home run on the card in just 18 trips to the plate. He has shown strong contact skills, having a fall league contact rate north of 83 percent.
I spoke with Geoff Pontes of Baseball America after his trip during the first week of the fall league and asked him who the player was that surprised him the most in a good way and Siani was his answer. Maybe the performance can be a catalyst for a bigger 2025 season.
Jonathan Pintaro, RHP, NYM, 26
Sometimes, players have a great story, and you just miss it completely. That feels like the case here with Pintaro who spent six seasons at Shorter College before going undrafted in 2022. Pintaro spent 2023 and some of 2024 in Indy ball playing for Glacier in the Pioneer League. The Mets signed the 26 year old and the rest is history. Pintaro pitched 74 innings jumping from High-A to Triple-A by seasons end, posting a 2.68 ERA with 75 strikeouts to 28 walks.
In his start on Wednesday, Pintaro tossed three scoreless innings with three strikeouts and just one hit allowed. He is up to six innings now in two starts and has allowed just two earned runs.
Having a deep arsenal of pitches, Pintaro utilizes a cutter, sinker, changeup, and slider. His fastball sits near 95 mph and the entire arsenal has good east-west movement.
Surprise (Chris)
Alejandro Osuna, OF, TEX, 22
Another day, another Alejandro Osuna writeup. Osuna continues to look like one of the more impressive hitters in Arizona, having three doubles on Wednesday. His other two batted balls were hit at 110.7 mph with a 15-degree launch angle and the other at 105 mph with a six-degree launch angle.
Osuna has 16 batted balls so far this AFL and has an average exit velocity of 100.4 mph with a max of 110.7 mph. He is making contact at a strong rate of 90 percent in-zone and has a .348/.483/.652 slash line. Osuna rakes, even if he is on the smaller side.
Chase DeLauter, OF, CLE, 23
DeLauter finally got on the board with his first AFL home run, though he has played in only three games so far. It was his fourth hit, but his first extra-base hit and the home run was a big one. Leaving the bat at 109 mph, DeLauter flashed the power upside we have known over the years as it traveled 425 feet. The single DeLauter hit had a 105 mph exit velocity.
There is no denying the talent here. In fact, DeLauter might have a 60 grade hit, power, and run tool. But they say the best tool is availability and that is the case here. DeLauter played just 39 regular season games due to injuries in 2024, which followed up a 2023 season where he played 57. He will have to stay healthy to reach his true potential.
Creed Willems, C/1B, BAL, 21
When I think of Creed Willems, I often think of Creed Bratton from The Office and just chuckle. Both seem to be a bit underrated in terms of their respective roles.
Willems mashes, and he hit his first AFL home run on Wednesday, one that left the bat at 106 mph with a 35-degree launch angle. No distance was registered, but we have to figure it went far.
Among Willems 16 batted balls so far this AFL, he has averaged 97 mph off the bat and topped out at 114.3 mph. Position and contact are some concerns long term, but so far in Arizona, he has hit. In 24 trips to the plate, Willems has a .381/.458/.619 slash.
Salt River (Beck)
Kala’i Rosario, OF, MIN, 22
Salt River didn’t manage much offense on Wednesday outside of Rosario’s two hits – a single and a triple – and ultimately ended with just one run on six hits. I liked him in my live looks in last year’s AFL based on his athleticism and a few outlier performances, but he ultimately struck out in 32.4% of AFL plate appearances and then 29.6% over the course of his 2024 regular season (primarily at Double-A). He’s got serious pop and is a good athlete, but it’s unclear whether he’ll hit enough for it to matter.
Kristian Robinson, OF, ARI, 23
Seeing K-Rob back warms my heart, but it’s tough to see a fantasy-relevant outcome for him at this juncture in his career. Obviously that’s not entirely his fault – a four-year hiatus from anything will atrophy your ability in that arena – but the reality is that he’s a 23-year-old that is behind his peers developmentally and struck out 150 times in 419 plate appearances in 2024. Similar to Rosario, he’s got a fair amount of pop and a promising frame, but it may be too late for everything to coalesce. I’m rooting for him. He went 1-for-4 with a double and three strikeouts yesterday.
Peoria (Beck)
Ethan Salas, C, SDP, 18
Salas has been a doubles machine through his first six games with Peoria and is currently trailing just Colt Emerson for the league lead. On the other hand, he’s also struck out nine times in 27 plate appearances and has looked overmatched at times. In any event, his line in the AFL thus far is a stark departure from the struggles he had at the plate over 111 games in High-A and is largely impressive for an 18-year-old of any caliber. I think we may have been too quick to shove him up lists and tear him off of them. He was 2-for-4 with a double and four RBIs on Wednesday.
Drake Baldwin, C, ATL, 23
He may be a little on the stout side, but he sure can motor. Baldwin left Wednesday’s contest with just one hit – a triple – and showed off his wheels in the process. I’ve written about him a number of times this fall and am firmly in the “buy now” camp. If he weren’t a primary catcher I’d have him tucked somewhere in the back end of the top 50.
Leodalis De Vries, SS, SDP, 18
De Vries just celebrated his 18th birthday on October 11th but isn’t yet finding the same results that orgmate Ethan Salas is. The AFL is a challenging assignment typically reserved as “finishing school” for prospects that may have an opportunity to crack the big league roster in the coming year, but Preller and company have challenged their youngsters (as per usual) with competing against players several years their senior. Through four games, De Vries has a .235/.316/.294 line with seven strikeouts in 19 plate appearances. If a slow AFL grants you any discounted buying opportunities I would recommend leaping at them – his underlying data is wildly impressive for his age.
Glendale (Beck)
Jake Gelof, 3B, LAD, 22
Gelof laced three batted balls over 100 mph on Wednesday but walked away with just two hits. One of them was a grand slam in the bottom of the 7th that brought the Desert Dogs within a run and left the bat at 103.0 mph. The other two were a 104.4 mph single and a 101.6 mph ground ball fielder’s choice. He had a tough year split between Single- and High-A, ultimately finishing with a .214/.324/.360 line that was heavily influenced by a .254 BABIP. Still, he didn’t slug quite the way he was anticipated to coming off of a 23-homer season with Virginia. His long-term prognosis isn’t clear – the tools aren’t loud enough to say he’ll for certain meet the offensive needs of the third base position (or second for that matter) – but he had an interesting enough profile in college to stave off any declarative statements from me.
Sean McLain, SS, LAD, 23
I had a brief moment of panic the other day, thinking that I’d accidentally written about Matt McLain as a consequence of surname-driven muscle memory, but Glendale really does have two McLains on the roster. Matt has appeared in just two games thus far with no indication as to why he’s been absent, but Sean has been tearing it up. He’s an undersized middle infielder drafted in the fifth round of the 2022 draft and hasn’t stood out in terms of baseball card stats (or stature) throughout his pro career, though his AFL sample is a notable departure from his previous .629 and .633 OPS marks over the last two years. Sean was 1-for-2 with three walks, two RBIs, and two runs scored yesterday.
Edwin Arroyo, SS, CIN, 21
Arroyo remains a top 100 prospect on MLB Pipeline, but I don’t have the same enthusiasm for fantasy purposes. Before he missed the entire year with a torn labrum, Arroyo had posted chase rates north of 30% without the requisite power to get away with it. He’s a good defender and solid athlete who probably carries more value in roto formats for the stolen base contribution. Given that he hasn’t played since 2023, he’s got an opportunity to remind everyone that he exists and drive up his fantasy value. He went 2-for-5 with a stolen base on Wednesday.
Any RP to stash for 2025