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Arizona Fall League + LIDOM Recap: 10/24/23
Chris & Beck break down everything you need to know from the Arizona Fall League and Dominican Winter League.
A shorter stint on Tuesday as only two games were played in the Arizona Fall League, which will also be the case today. Glendale and Peoria both had days off, so Beck covered Salt River and Surprise, while Chris covered Mesa and Scottsdale. The writeups are free each day, but if you enjoy my work, please consider subscribing to get an edge in your dynasty leagues while also supporting me in becoming a full-time content creator.
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Dominican Winter League
Christopher Familia, OF, NYY, 23
Familia made the list for Monday’s performance, but another two-hit day with a double and an RBI lands him here again. He had a massive breakout in 2023, spending time between Single-A and High-A, hitting 22 home runs in 294 plate appearances. After slashing .398/.474/.928 in Single-A, the slashline dropped to .264/.332/.472 in High-A. Regardless, Familia showed big power and the ability to take a walk at a high clip.
In a small sample, Familia is slashing .643/.643/.857 in an impressive early LIDOM showing.
Eguy Rosario, INF, SD, 24
Rosario missed much of 2023 due to a broken ankle but spent time between Triple-A and the Majors slashing .265/.348/.422 with five home runs and four stolen bases in 187 Triple-A plate appearances before hitting two home runs in 37 MLB plate appearances. He is smaller, listed at 5’9”/150, but has still shown the ability to get to power, posting a 103 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, which is close to the league average. He is a free swinger but makes enough contact to be a versatile utility man.
On Tuesday, he collected two hits, including a double, pushing his early LIDOM slash line to .385/.500/.538. A healthy season in 2024 will be very telling of Rosario’s future value.
Scottsdale (Angels, Cardinals, Giants, Nationals, Phillies)
Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF, PHI, 22
Rincones may have struck out twice in four trips to the plate on Tuesday, but he did drive in the only two runs of the game for Scottsdale in a game where they only collected three hits as a team. He currently owns a .311 batting average for the Arizona Fall League to pair with a .957 OPS with two home runs and eight extra-base hits. Additionally, he stole his 10th base of the season.
Being a strong athlete with power and speed, Rincones had an underrated 2023 season in which he posted a .248/.351/.427 slash with 15 home runs and 32 stolen bases, adding 31 doubles and three triples for a total of 49 extra-base hits.
Victor Scott II, OF, STL, 22
While Scottsdale only mustered up three hits on Tuesday, Scott had a single but also reached via a walk. Even though he has been in a bit of a slump over the last week in the AFL, Scott still has a .250 batting average with ten stolen bases in the fall. He ran wild in 2023, stealing 95 bases between High-A and Double-A while posting a .303/.369/.425 slash line with nine home runs and 39 extra-base hits.
Scott plays strong defense and could find himself as the Cardinals’ centerfielder before long and might just be the Estuery Ruiz type players you did not know you needed in dynasty.
Oliver Dunn, INF, PHI, 26
Dunn continues to perform at a high level in the Arizona Fall League, which im not sure anyone expected. He broke out in a big way in 2023 in Double-A with the Phillies, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 16 bases while slashing .271/.396/.506. He was originally drafted by the Yankees in the 11th round of the 2019 draft and was a Rule 5 selection by Philadelphia.
On Tuesday, Dunn had a triple and a walk to give him a .326/.436/.630 slash with eight extra-base hits. It has been quite a surprising performance, but Dunn continues to hit game after game and may be a prospect to keep an eye on.
Mesa (A’s, Astros, Cubs, Orioles, Yankees)
James Triantos, 3B, CHC, 20
It was a slower game for Mesa, much like Scottsdale, as they only collected six hits, but scored five times. Triantos reached base twice, via his fifth triple of the fall and a walk. He started the Arizona Fall League hot and has continued to hit game after game, owning a .436 batting average to pair with a 1.304 OPS.
Triantos might be the best pure hitter in the Fall League, making high-end contact, as shown by his 83 percent contact rate in 2023. Power will likely always be the question mark, but Triantos is as good as a pure hitter as there is.
Kevin Alcantara, OF, CHC, 21
Alcantara collected half of Mesa’s hits on Tuesday, including his fourth Arizona Fall League home run and two singles. The home run came off Tekoah Roby with an easy swing and a massive bat flip. There is a swing and miss in the profile, and he has struck out at a 28 percent clip in the fall league, but the athleticism and upside is something I want to bet on in dynasty.
Alcantara is a 6’6” physical specimen with power and speed. I pushed him up well into my top 100 in my offseason due to a continually improving contact rate throughout the regular season. I would look to buy everywhere before the stock soars.
Zach Dezenzo, 3B, HOU, 23
It has been an up-and-down Arizona Fall League for Dezenzo, but he mashed his third home run of the fall, accounting for four of Mesa’s five runs. He scored twice and drove in two runs, giving him 12 runs scored to pair with his .231/.333/.446 slash line.
Dezenzo has massive power, posting a 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity during the regular season while hitting the ball at ideal angles, shown by a 41 percent sweet spot rate. Yes, there are some contact questions, but when Dezenzo makes contact, the quality is elite, making him an excellent dynasty buy.
Salt River (Braves, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Rockies, Tigers)
The Rafters scored ten runs on 20 hits. That wasn’t enough to stave off Surprise, who scored 12 runs of their own on 13 hits on a night conducive to scoring. Neither team’s starter was particularly sharp, but it was a decidedly better showing for Dylan Dodd than it was for Zak Kent.
Sterlin Thompson, INF/OF, COL, 22
It’s been a while since I covered Salt River (this is Beck writing — I’ve been covering Glendale, Mesa, and Peoria for the last two weeks), and I’m pleased but not surprised to find Thompson has continued to hit. He tallied three more in yesterday’s action, including a double to tie Jacob Hurtubise, Jakob Marsee, and Benny Montgomery for fifth place in hits with 20 a piece.
He’s an easy top-100 prospect for me. Frankly, I’m a little disappointed he’s playing so well because the cost to acquire just keeps rising.
Keshawn Ogans, SS, ATL, 22
Among the 20 total hits Salt River compiled, there was one lone homer off the bat of Keshawn Ogans. He’s not known for power — he’s managed ten home runs in 578 minor league plate appearances — but he’s got two in 54 fall plate appearances so far.
Ogans isn’t a big guy, listed at 5’8 and 180 lbs, and probably plays below his listed weight. He does have a solid hit tool and good plate discipline, but the physical traits that would make him an intriguing fantasy option aren’t fully there at present.
Carter Bins, C, PIT, 25
Bins wasn’t a name that jumped off the page when reviewing AFL rosters, but he’s been one of the most productive hitters for the Rafters. He’s a touch on the old side, but he’s getting run in the fall because he missed time with an injury and only accumulated 118 plate appearances during the regular season.
He collected three hits last night, all singles, and raised his line to .357/.400/.679 through 30 plate appearances.
Justice Bigbie, OF, DET, 25
A quartet of singles for Justice Bigbie! It’s a weird night when you finish a baseball game with four knocks and only account for 20% of your team’s total hits. Bigbie has been swinging a pretty good stick in Arizona and owns a .313 average through 13 games, but the extra-base impact we saw from him in the regular season hasn’t translated.
Just three of Bigbie’s 15 fall league hits have been for extras, all of which were two-baggers. Usually, the thin desert air is a boon on slugging percentages, and despite hitting the ball hard while out here, he hasn’t had a ball leave the yard yet.
Surprise (Blue Jays, Brewers, Rangers, Reds, Royals)
The Saguaros improved to 12-8 and took a half-game lead over Scottsdale atop the fall league standings. They were out-hit 20 to 13, but theirs were for extra bases more often. They had three doubles, a triple, and two home runs en route to a 12-10 victory.
Damiano Palmegiani, CI, TOR, 23
Palmegiani continued his torrid fall pace with a double, a triple, four RBI, and a run scored on Tuesday. He’s been among the very best performers in the AFL so far, and he had previously flown under the radar despite a strong regular season.
I’m inclined to dismiss AFL power numbers to some degree given the environment — both park factors and quality of pitching — but we’ve seen him post impressive exit velocity numbers, which ultimately trump concerns about how that production came together. He’s an interesting name to follow through spring training with a chance to see game action with the big league club in 2024.
Dasan Brown, OF, TOR, 22
Brown is mainly known for his wheels. He stole 26 bags on 37 attempts during the regular season, which is an astonishing inefficiency because he has 80-grade run times. It goes to show that base stealing is a cerebral feat and not solely physical. He finds himself here by virtue of the stick as he hits his first fall league home run.
He’s probably a better real-life asset than he is for fantasy, given his speed and defense but could prove interesting if the bat comes along.
CJ Alexander, 1B, KC, 27
Alexander is here because he hit a bomb off of Nick Dombkowski in the 6th inning. His age is listed correctly; he is actually 27, but he’s missed a lot of time to this point with injury.
He has real pop but isn’t much of a prospect at this point. No shade to him; there just isn’t much a 27-year-old can do in the minors to change his stock (today is my 28th birthday as I write this, which is producing extreme cognitive dissonance).
Wes Clarke, 1B, MIL, 23
Clarke contributed a double and a single in Surprise’s win and has a 1.089 OPS through 65 plate appearances. He’s starting to get more of the attention he should have garnered in the regular season after a campaign that concluded with 26 home runs and a .392 OBP. He spent the entire year at AA and had to contend with the pre-tacked baseball.
Milwaukee’s corner infield situation is murky. Carlos Santana is a free agent and Rowdy Tellez was uninspiring in advance of his second arbitration hearing, leaving some opportunity for Clarke to figure into the big league picture at some point in 2024.
Peoria (Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Padres, Rays) - NO GAME
Glendale (Dodgers, Mets, Twins, Red Sox, White Sox) - NO GAME