Arizona Diamondbacks Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
Discover sleepers and breakouts from the Arizona Diamondbacks for dynasty fantasy baseball both on the MLB and prospect side.
With dynasty season ramping up, it is time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find our rankings and reports to see how we at the Dynasty Dugout value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where we call our shots on players, I think, require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.
Arizona Diamondbacks Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
MLB Sleeper: Christian Walker, 1B
This one seems crazy to write, as Walker has been nothing short of excellent over the last two years. In fact, he has finished as a top 45 player each of the last two seasons, which I figure most people would not have guessed, but all he has done is mash.
Walker has 69 nice home runs between the last two years and even stole 11 bases in 2023. Walker won't provide high-end batting averages, but he makes respectable contact and has struck out less than 20 percent of the time each of the last two years.
Yes, Walker will be 33 years old, but there are no warning signs that Walker will regress in 2024. He still feels undervalued, especially in dynasty leagues, considering the production of the last two seasons. If you can invest in him for a reasonable cost and need a first baseman, I would be all in.
MLB Breakout: Alek Thomas, OF
Thomas was once a top prospect who did not explode on the scene like most young players entering the league. Many wrote Thomas off pretty quickly, and at this point of his MLB career, he owns a .230/.274/.359 slash through 813 plate appearances with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases. The numbers are far from inspiring, so what makes Thomas a potential breakout in 2024?
Thomas did show some signs of life in the postseason last year as the Diamondbacks made their World Series run. He hit four home runs and swiped two bases. His hard-hit rate has improved throughout the season and his career, which is encouraging if he can keep that rate north of 40 percent.
The negative is the ground ball rate. Thomas will never be able to get to his full potential, hitting the ball on the ground at a 57 percent clip like he has for his career. While there were really bad stretches, there were also good rolling stretches where Thomas’ ground ball rate dipped below 40 percent. In the process, his zone contact rates steadily improved throughout the 2023 season.
There is still plenty of work to do, but Thomas has the power and speed, plus contact skills, to be an intriguing player. The cost is low enough to make him a very solid dynasty buy.
MLB Bust: Geraldo Perdomo, MI
Perdomo put together a solid season in 2023, getting on base at a .353 clip and adding six home runs and 16 stolen bases. Far from a flashy player, Perdomo did have his moments last season, like in April when he slashed .390/.455/.627, but there were a lot of ups and downs.
The profile is geared toward contact, and Perdomo’s contact rate and chase rate were 96th and 98th percentile among all MLB hitters, respectively. The power is virtually non-existent as he had a 0.9 percent barrel rate and an 85.7 mph average exit velocity, ranking 1st and 3rd percentile.
Perdomo also had a below-average sprint speed despite swiping 16 bases last year. A large portion of the impact comes from his OBP skills, but there honestly is not much else to offer. With the wave of talent coming in the Diamondbacks farm system, it may be a good time to sell Perdomo if you can.
Prospect Sleeper: Ruben Santana, 3B
Santana inked a $750k bonus from the Diamondbacks in 2022 and has done nothing but hit since beginning his professional career. Spending 2022 in the Dominican Summer League and 2023 in the Arizona Complex League, Santana has posted a .316 batting average at both stops, with a slash between them of .316/.409/.466.
In 2023, Santana began gaining more power, hitting four home runs and collecting 20 extra-base hits in 52 games. You can likely expect some of those doubles to turn into home runs over time, considering Santana is still young and has a strong frame and explosive swing.
Data suggests that Santana has done an excellent job of hitting all pitch types, which we often see younger players struggle with breaking balls upon their first taste of pro ball.
He currently clocks 50-55 grade run times, but could slow down over time due to his frame. He has been successful on the base paths so far, stealing 22 bases and only being caught twice in 95 games.
Long term, Santana has the potential to be a 20+ home run bat while being an average hitter with sneaky speed. His strong arm likely means he can stick at the hot corner long term.
Prospect Breakout: Jansel Luis, 2B
The Diamondbacks signed Luis for $525k in January 2022 and after a strong debut in the Dominican Summer League, Luis came stateside and displayed a strong hit tool and blossoming power at the complex in 2023, earning a promotion to Single-A. Luis slashed .269/.335/.441 between both stops with seven home runs and 23 extra base hits across 62 games. Additionally, he stole 16 bases on 20 attempts.
Luis has a robust approach at the plate and picks his spots well. As a switch hitter, Luis has shown strong contact ability from both sides of the plate and has shown gap-to-gap power but saw some of those leave the yard at a higher rate in 2023.
The concerns in the profile were exposed a bit upon his promotion to Single-A as he chased more and made contact less than 70 percent of the time. Regardless, it was a strong season for a young 18-year-old playing in his first season stateside. If Luis continues to develop, he could end up being a plus hitter with average game power and above-average or better speed.