2024 Pitching Prospect Breakouts Pt. 1
Chris Clegg breaks down 17 breakout pitching prospects who you should get in on now in dynasty leagues before their stocks soar.
Cover Photo with Images by Steph Chambers and Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
One of my favorite articles to write each offseason is my breakout prospect list. Getting in on prospects early in the dynasty before their stock takes off is huge, and this is what I hope to accomplish in this article, helping you add this list of high-octane prospects to your dynasty farm system.
No matter how deep of a league you are in, we have you covered with a ton of pitching prospects that could breakout in 2024. Part one begins with 17 pitching prospects that I love for 2024.
Top 100 Prospects Who Could See Their Stock Soar
Bubba Chandler, RHP, PIT, 19, 6’2”/200
Chandler made my list last spring of my pitching prospect obsessions and for good reasons. The arsenal is downright nasty. He already broke out in a way in the second half, but I think his stock continues to soar in 2024.
Chandler has long been known as an athlete, dating back to his days in high school when he was committed to Clemson to play quarterback and be a two-way player on the baseball field. After being drafted, he gave up football but continued to be a two-way player on the diamond, pitching and playing shortstop for his first two pro seasons.
After finally settling in as a pitcher in 2023, Chandler had plenty of bumps in the road, but also made major strides throughout the season. It truly was a tale of two halves for Chandler, who posted a 6.79 ERA across 62.1 innings with 77 strikeouts and 38 walks in the first half. But in the second half, Chandler looked like a different arm, harnessing his command and posting a 1.66 ERA across 48.2 innings with 51 strikeouts and 13 walks. Five of the nine earned runs he allowed in the second half came in one start.
From an arsenal standpoint, Chandler is highly impressive, featuring a fastball that routinely sits 97-98 mph with 20 inches of IVB and 12 inches of run. He pairs it with a changeup that tunnels well off the fastball and has nice fading action.
The slider could end up being a 70-grade pitch if he harnesses the command of it some, as it sits anywhere from 87-90 with up to 17 inches of sweeping action. The stuff is undeniable here, and if the command continues to develop like we saw in the second half, Chandler could see his stock vault to being one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.
David Festa, RHP, MIN, 23, 6’6’”/185
Festa is one of the more underrated arms in the minors, and while the results were not overly impressive in 2023, Festa was one of the more unlucky arms in all of Minor League Baseball.
Posting a 4.19 ERA across 92.1 innings. In Double-A, his xFIP was 3.65, nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA with a .349 BABIP.
Leading with a fastball in the 94-96 mph range, Festa gets elite ride with IVB up to 20 inches on occasion but consistently in the 18-19 inch range. While the pitch does not have much horizontal movement, Festa misses bats thanks to his low VAA and locating it up in the zone with velocity and IVB.
The slider and the changeup both sit in a similar velocity band, around 87 mph, with the changeup generating a high IVB number for a changeup, but averaging 12 inches of horizontal movement with low spin rates. The changeup misses a ton of bats and plays well off his four-seam. The slider has a shorter break horizontal break while showing nice depth.
Festa does need to throw strikes more consistently to be a solid starter long-term. But when he is on, he shows three pitches that are all at least above average or better. There is a chance to see Festa in the Twins rotation by mid-season 2024.
Jairo Iriarte, RHP, SD, 21, 6’5”/200
After signing for just $75k with the Padres in 2018, Iriarte has had an up-and-down career until at least 2023. After a ton of hard work in the weight room and added strength to his frame, Iriarte saw his fastball begin to sit 96-97 consistently with a ton of riding action from a low arm slow. The pitch generates ride and run, causing a ton of hitters to whiff on it.
He pairs it with a devastating slider that consistently sits in the mid-80s with a ton of sweep and downward movement. He throws it to both-handed hitters, and it was a his go-to swing-and-miss pitch in 2023, and for good reason.
Iriarte’s changeup plays well off his fastball, as it sits near 90 mph with fading action, tunneling well off the fastball before taking a late dive. The changeup misses bats but also generates a ton of ground balls when contact is made.
The stuff is electric with Iriarte, but it does come with a violent delivery. Even though the command has improved throughout his career, another step forward could ensure that Iriarte is a starter long-term, which he is already trending toward. Expect him to get a shot to start in San Diego at some point in 2024.
Noble Meyer, RHP, MIA, 18, 6’5”/185
Meyer established himself as one of the best prep pitching prospects in the 2023 MLB Draft, and the Marlins decided to play into their strength of pitching development and draft Meyer tenth overall.
The 18-year-old has quite an impressive arsenal and a good feel for command, starting with his fastball that sits in the mid-90s. In his pro debut, Meyer’s sinker sat around 95 mph with some pretty incredible movement, averaging 17 inches of horizontal run, while also showing good depth. It is easy velocity from a frame that will likely only add strength, and with that could come more velocity.
Meyer’s slider sits between 84 and 86 on average, with consistently ten or more inches of sweeping action while also showing good depth. In his pro debut, we saw it get anywhere between 2850 and 3000 rpm of spin, generating a ton of swing and miss as well as chase out of the zone.
The changeup is still a developing pitch that Meyer did not need to throw often as a prep player due to the dominance of his fastball and slider. He sells the pitch well with quick arm speed that resembles the fastball, and the Marlins have done well developing changeups in the past. If all develops for Meyer, he could be a consistent top-15 type pitcher.
Chase Petty, RHP, CIN, 20, 6’1”/190
Petty flew up draft boards in 2021 after displaying a high-end fastball that would touch triple digits with a nice slider to pair with it. The Twins drafted Petty 26th overall but ultimately traded him to Cincinnati.
Petty’s fastball sat in the low-to-mid 90s in 2023, but not due to injury or anything of that nature. Petty now throws from a completely different release height and arm slot, creating more running life in his sinker, and his command is exceptionally better than it was as a prep. But the velocity all came back this offseason. So far this spring, he is sitting at 97 consistently and touching 99.
He has also done a good job of separating the slider and cutter this offseason. The cutter is sitting at 92 mph, and the slider at 85 with 15 inches of sweeping action. The velocity separation between the two now gives Petty four separate velocity bands which is huge.
The changeup is sitting close to 90 mph, and Petty can get 30 inches of separation between the changeup and slider, creating challenges for hitters to pick up. It is more used against lefties than righties.
There is no denying the talent level or the stuff with Petty, but there are durability concerns, and the fact the Reds have babied him leaves questions on whether he can handle a starter’s workload longterm. 2024 should be a season in which the Reds let the reigns off a bit and see what Petty can do with a bigger workload. The upside is undeniable.
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